ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Which of the major central bankers would come out on top in a bar brawl is a heavily under-discussed topic amongst investors. The top contender – by my humble estimation at least – used to be burly…

Recent analyses, notably from the World Bank, show that while levels of inequality at a global scale have gone down, the average person lives now in a more unequal country than in the late 1980s… … inequality does not only…

We mentioned on Tuesday how the last thing the eurozone needed right now was a Cold War between the US and China. Germany is the economic engine of the eurozone, fuelled by exports to the US and China. When those…

Germans joining Italians in recession (and soon to join the French in the streets)… The Spanish youth nearly as woefully unemployed as young Greeks… and Belgium almost as indebted as the Republic of Ireland. I’m not sure this was the…

The European Spring is coming to Germany. But before we get to that, I’ve an announcement to make. My colleague Nick Hubble has just returned from a trip to the heart of the EU, where he delivered a message so…

It’s finally ready… I spent most of last week getting a high-level security pass – submitting my passport to the authorities, getting an endorsement from senior political figures and even passing through airport style security. It was the culmination of…

“When the streets of Paris are running with blood, I buy”, claimed a Rothschild banker in the 19th century. Buy assets cheaply during conflict, and sell them at a profit at conflict resolution; a cold-hearted strategy certainly, but a profitable…

There’s a large Metro Bank branch not far from my flat. Whenever I pass it, my eyes are drawn to a large, unusual device it has inside. It’s a circular hole in the wall with the words “The magic money…

“They can paper over the cracks,” he said. “The political will is there.” “So it’s empire or bust?” I asked. “Yes.” It was nearly midnight. We were in the smoking lounge of a grand private club in Whitehall, not far…

I got up early this morning and headed on to the roof, hoping for a peek at the eclipse. I was met instead by birdsong and a sky draped in red clouds. Oh well. Hopefully you were luckier than I…

Is there anything Mr. Hubble isn’t right about? For nearly the whole of 2018, he predicted chaos in Europe, and here we are: Protestors setting the French central bank on fire, then turning up to protest at The Hague in…

Let’s do the maths. The total value of non-performing loans in the European Union is valued around €900 billion. Banks have made provisions, meaning set aside money, for about half of that. Leaving about €450 billion in questionable loans. The…

Continuing our highlight reel for the year, here’s the letter in which Nick Hubble correctly predicted how the Italian elections would ignite financial markets. This went out on 16 February; the Italian bond market exploded in May, so Nick wasn’t…

I’m currently back home for the holidays in Aberdeen (enjoying the weather of course), so over the break you won’t have to put up with my scribblings and can sample some of our best editorial instead. To begin the week,…

… like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel, Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel… – “Windmills of Your Mind”, Alan and Marilyn Bergman (1968) Our old friend the doom loop is back…

“I can definitely say that DB is a safe bank.” – Stuart Lewis, chief risk officer at Deutsche Bank in August The Last Day of Pompeii – Karl Brullov I’d like to believe that all is fine and dandy over…

The forecasts are out and the headlines are in. Brexit will be an economic catastrophe – worse than the recession we didn’t have after the referendum. It’s encouraging to see the newspapers talking about the economic cost of government policy….

Have you ever wondered what our office looks like? Today’s Capital & Conflict comes to you from our newly complete recording studio. It was recorded on the day stockmarkets surged on the news Italy would back down in its budget…

I have a confession. The market crash in October wasn’t just about Italy’s budget debacle. It was also about the underlying force which is getting Italy into trouble right now. Here’s how I explain it in Chapter 5 of my…

It’s Thanksgiving in America. But before you can get to the festivities below, I wanted to make you aware of a shocking prediction. What if the market melts up before it melts down? What if stocks go for one last…

They’ve done it again. Italy’s Target2 balances hit -€489.5bn in October. That’s a new record low. Of any country, ever. Including during the European sovereign debt crisis. But very few of us know what it means. In fact, nobody knows…

Welcome back to the semblance of stability. After a terrible October, markets have stabilised. Even the Aussie dollar is doing well. Despite a consensus forecast among investment banks of a 20% decline in Sydney and Melbourne house prices. No worries,…

The world’s stockmarkets lost eight trillion US dollars in value in October according to Bloomberg. By that measure, it’s the worst month since 2008. Change in value of global stocks by month Source: Bloomberg October wiped out almost all of…

My time off is over and I’ve finally made it into the UK, for good. Thank god you’re still here too. Because Bloody October was only just the beginning. As I warned about in August, October would be the beginning…

Would you like the good news, or the bad news first? Whenever I’ve asked people this in the past they’ve always picked the bad news, so I’ll start with that on this fine morning in Bloody October. I wrote to…

A subscriber to Zero Hour Alert wrote in recently, with an intriguing story I’m compelled to share. I am an avid reader of your Zero Hour Alert, just love it. I wanted you to know, recently attending a luncheon full…

“… as of today, the doom loop is very big and very much alive.” Lorenzo Codogno and Mara Monti – The London School of Economics Hanging in the Louvre in Paris is a work of art that has provoked debate…

You’re about to miss your chance to protect yourself from the next financial crisis. Nick Hubble’s predictions are coming true too quickly. It was only weeks ago that Nick and I recorded the warning together. But the video is already…

What if you invested in the next market bubble… before it became a bubble? What if you bought an asset when it was trading at fair value… before everyone and their dog bought in too? Due to the structure of…

Feedback loops are very important for survival. But what happens when they’re misleading? Or deliberately misinterpreted? Suddenly, the gullible emotion of self-preservation becomes downright dangerous to your health. Quicksand is the best example. It looks like sand, feels like mud,…

It’s happening. Blood is being spilt in the financial markets over Italy. Italian government bonds continue to plummet as investors sell them off cheaper and cheaper. The latest trigger? Claudio Borghi, a senior official and lawmaker in the Italian government,…

Boris Johnson is fighting for a harder Brexit. And he wants to use the UK foreign aid budget to save the elephants… Daniel Hannan says the EU is trying to call our bluff, but we’re not bluffing. We’re “bloody minded”….

The more power they get, the less popular they’ll be. That’s the inherent tension underlying the EU. But why is it true? When you can only choose one policy for all of Europe, then that policy will fit badly somewhere….

In their desperate scramble to find something to negotiate about, the EU and UK governments are turning to ever more ridiculous topics. The latest artificial disagreement is about deadlines. First Prime Minister Theresa May refused to extend the March Brexit…

You might notice you’re not mentioned in the headline. Which is the point of today’s Capital & Conflict. Policymakers and business decision-makers care about your vote and your money, not your interests. And, for some reason, most people are more…

It’s all so familiar. If I was you, I’d be thoroughly furious. Maggie seems to be absolutely fuming too. Let’s play a game so I can show you what I mean. Round 1. You have to guess which of the…

I have a question for you that requires you be totally honest. With yourself. Not with me. At stake is your understanding – and potential survival – in the next financial panic. The question, as odd as it might sound,…

Do you remember when ratings agencies ruled financial markets? A 2010 BBC opinion piece started with, “Is there any more powerful and feared institution in Europe (or the world) than Standard & Poors?” Yikes. Today I explain why I think…

The EU’s disintegration continues this week. The headlines don’t seem to change much. Unless you pay careful attention to where they’re leading. If you float above Europe and see Brexit as just another domino pushing at the EU’s foundations, you’ll…

Earlier this month I took you through the graveyard of Europe’s many monetary unions. We only had time for the old ones though. The eurozone system failed many times before it even began properly. The currency snake and the European…

“The Italian Horrorclown”. That’s what Germany’s mainstream Der Spiegel newspaper called Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini late last week. The picture to go along with the story wasn’t flattering either. Meanwhile, Der Spiegel also found a Greek economist willing…

Did the financial elite deliberately build weaknesses into the euro currency system in order to create a financial crisis and bring about closer European political union? That’s what I’ve been thinking about for the past couple of days, particularly since…

Yesterday we avoided the Boris Burka furore to talk about the mechanics of the Soviet Union’s internal trade settlement mechanism. Which is important because it explains how the eurozone will fail economically in the same way. Monetary unions may destroy…

Acting Man’s blogger Pater Tenebrarum summarised the eurozone’s Target2 system with words that doom the euro: “TARGET-2 is a settlement system without a settlement mechanism.” Understand this sentence is the key that unlocks the death of the euro. And the…

How do currency unions die? That’s the question I’m asking myself this week, as Nickolai Hubble prepares to publish his next big prediction about the slow-motion collapse of the euro financial system. The short answer is: be very, very careful…