Latest Economics articles

  • The parting glass

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom VAUXHALL, LONDON – Well dear reader, we had a good run. But today marks the end of the line for Capital & Conflict. From here on out, this newsletter…

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  • The countdown to lockdown

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Of course they won’t call it that. But the media and the protesters will. And it’ll feel like one. The countdown to our next lockdown has already begun. That’s…

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  • A confession about your future

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” explained Yogi Berra. But it’s been a good run for Fortune & Freedom so far. The bitcoin price boomed after…

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  • Welcome to the War on Covid

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom It may well be that lockdowns are a good idea, that nations should theoretically open up after reaching some vaccine threshold, that track and trace will prevent outbreaks according…

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  • What I learned from the Hard Money Council

    The first idea is simple. For a few weeks, markets have been worrying about whether the central banks will taper, meaning they will begin to withdraw their quantitative easing (QE – the creation of money to buy government bonds and other securities) and other forms of loose monetary policy.

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  • Going live in 30 mins: on the trail of the “Capital Tsunami”

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past 25 years, investors have bought – on average – $115 million worth of stocks around the world every trading day. That comes to roughly $29 billion entering the stock market every year.

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  • What if vaccines don’t end the pandemic?

    Now you might think that we are finally getting somewhere when it comes to this pandemic thing. Perhaps we’re even getting towards the end of it. But I’m not so sure that the vaccines will save us and unlock the global economy.

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  • And then came the recession

    I’m getting worried the global economic recovery from the pandemic is about to go very sour. And with it, asset prices. In fact, a recession may well be on the horizon. The reason is simple. Economists might be able to count the amount of economic activity, but not whether it’s worth it.

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  • Readers reveal the reality of financial repression

    It’s time to dig into the mailbag today. Your demands for a virtual conference on escaping financial repression have been heard, loud and clear, by the way.

    And so, for today, let’s look into the damage done by financial repression in the form of low interest rates, what happened when one reader attempted to buy cryptocurrencies to escape financial repression, and more…

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  • A crisis for the NHS, or from the NHS?

    Find out what Nigel Farage has to say about the backlogs, the future of the NHS and the potential crisis that awaits Britain as it tries to save those the NHS was supposed to, in this video…

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  • Covid cases surge after Freedom Day

    I’ve always known different nations’ news channels report the same news entirely differently. I follow the news from the UK, Germany, Australia and the United States each day. And they’ve offered completely different facts and “science” throughout the pandemic.

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  • Not just another housing bubble

    House prices around the world are booming in the midst of a pandemic, not to mention despite Brexit. But why? And will it last?

    As you’re about to discover, I believe this goes beyond the usual housing bubble. But first, the data…

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  • Misunderestimating risk

    But consider this. Your definition of the word “risk” and the definition used by the financial industry serving you is completely different. And the gap is the source of rather a lot of anguish, if you ask me.

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  • Black Tot Day

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – We must end the week on a sombre note. For tomorrow is a grave day indeed…

    It was in 1740 when the Royal Navy first formalised a daily rum ration for sailors aboard Her Majesty’s ships – what would become fondly known as “the tot”.

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  • £36 trillion whale

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Watch the live stream this Friday We’ll be streaming our latest episode of Southbank Live on Friday at 10am here on YouTube – my guest this week is our…

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  • Bismarck’s forgotten legacy

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – “Whales” in capital markets – those individuals, funds and other players with enormous investment positions – are dangerous beasts.

    They can move markets with their trades, and if you get in their way, they can crush your portfolio.

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  • “You’ve been framed! pinged!”

    While I’m sure Her Majesty’s fine crew at the “Doughnut” in Cheltenham can trace my movements with ease, there’s something uniquely dystopian about willingly installing government surveillance tech on to one’s own electronics for “the greater good”, so I never installed the Test & Trace app.

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  • Smouldering statistics

    I hope you’ve been getting some decent weather, wherever you happen to be reading this. Sure is toasty out here – but as Nickolai Hubble will tell you, the temperature is rising even further in inflation statistics…

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  • Happy “Freedom Day”

    “Freedom In Name Only”, or FRINO, was the topic of our latest Fortune & Freedom podcast with Nickolai Hubble and Nigel Farage – while you’re celebrating our state-sanctioned “freedom”, I encourage you to give it a listen.

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  • Curse of the South Sea

    THE HOWFF, DUNDEE – There’s an old saying that “a rolling loan gathers no loss”. But the act of “rolling” debt – paying off old loans with freshly borrowed money – is neither cheap nor easy for most of us….

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  • A muddled historical medley

    GALLERY 48, DUNDEE – “History might be rhyming, but there are a lot of different songs being played at the same time” says Nickolai Hubble of the current investing environment. When looking forward into the 2020s, we wonder what market…

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  • The suppressed memories of central bankers

    MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Do you remember what happens after a housing bubble bursts? That’s what my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble would like to ask you in today’s letter – for it seems many have forgotten. But before we…

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  • To err is human…

    MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A quick note before we begin today. I’ll be hosting an online event tomorrow with a very special guest. He’s an American CEO with quite the investment tale to tell, and if you’re interested in streamlining your…

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  • Beware of the bubble

    Editor’s note: With the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs this week, optimism is abounding in markets. But as you’ll see below, optimism has a danger to it where markets are concerned. With analysts forecasting the fastest economic growth…

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  • What Wall Street’s worst womaniser knew about

    The “Einstein of money” wasn’t much of a husband or father. His first divorce was in 1937, when divorce was still taboo. He left his wife for a young actress, and became an absentee father to his four stigmatised children….

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  • Through a different prism

    VARNA, BULGARIA For a moment, think of Capital & Conflict (and the other Southbank Investment Research publications) as a kind of prism. If you look through that prism, you will see the world of investment a certain way. The world…

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  • Beyond the frontier: what are the frontier markets and why do they matter?

    VARNA, BULGARIA Thursday 24 June was an important day for the many pension funds, insurance companies and other institutions that invest in foreign stock markets. It was the day that MSCI announced its annual Market Classification Review. MSCI is a…

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  • Less like the staircase and more like the Alps

    HEILIGENSTADT, VIENNA Vienna as a whole is pretty flat. However, we do have a hill here in Heiligenstadt. To climb up it, from the Karl Marx-Hof at the bottom to the ZAMG – Austria’s Met Office – at the top,…

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  • An inconvenient debate

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH ­– My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble is no stranger to controversy. Truth be told, he likes to stir it quite a bit. This note he penned for Fortune & Freedom (click here to subscribe) is…

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  • Hey big spender

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – I’d been putting it off for so long… Looked steadily more ridiculous as the months have gone by… And been called a “pirate” (amongst other things) as a result… But it was finally time to get…

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  • Forbidden energy

    “A lethal dose to anyone within ten yards. Get it while it’s hot!” – Edge of Darkness (1985) NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Do I count any nuclear bulls amongst the readership? Anyone stacking uranium rods at home, or stuffing them…

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  • Solar Summer

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Edinburgh, like so many cities, looks its best in the sun. When the rays hit it just right, the sandstone skyline shines like gold. And shine it has over the past few days – we’ve had…

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  • The greenies respond in kind…

    THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble isn’t one for political correctness. As I like to say, he won’t screw a silencer on his speech. This might preclude him from various other professions and speaking opportunities,…

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  • The green gangrene

    THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – There’s been a bit of drama here at Southbank Investment Research of late. It’s about our Beyond Oil Summit which goes live on Wednesday (get access here if you haven’t signed up yet). The subject of…

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  • Third time’s the charm

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Our very first Beyond Oil Summit feels like a different epoch… but it was only last year. Our plans for the event, featuring first-class energy experts on the future of black gold, began at the very beginning…

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  • A drove of black gold bulls

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Well, the results are in from Monday’s poll… And I must say, I’m a little surprised: A lot of oil bulls out there – nearly three quarters of respondents. And there I was thinking I had a…

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  • Searching for the Seven

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – They called them the Seven Sisters. Seven companies which ruled the world. It all began in August 1928, at a castle called Achnacarry. It’s in the Highlands, near Ben Nevis – about half an hour’s drive from…

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  • Beyond Black Gold

    STOCKBRIDGE, EDINBURGH – A short note from me this morning, I’m just off to interview a certain gold expert based in the microstate of Liechtenstein. This gold discussion will be the final instalment our 2021 Gold Summit – after the…

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  • Bread for brains

    THE STANDING ORDER, EDINBURGH – It almost feels like things are getting back to normal here. Almost. The streets are thronging with folk. Not so many as pre-WuFlu, but it’s damn busy nonetheless. There are enough tourists on the Royal…

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  • Hot crop: what is driving the boom in these commodities?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The inflation key is in the lock. It will be turned once the world economy fully reopens. And when that happens, Western investors will be caught unawares by the destructive nature of that force which they haven’t…

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  • ₤OCK/K€Y

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I was given a set of lockpicks for my birthday a few years ago. I’d always wanted a set when I was a kid after reading one too many adventure novels, and a relative of mine thought…

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  • Preparing for overdrive

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – In yesterday’s note, I published a few responses I’ve received from the readership on the curious case of Tesla. Broadly speaking, most of the letters I received took a negative view on the company – or at…

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  • Oil’s well that ends well

    Big oil’s going green. Sort of. The onset of the pandemic last year left oil companies to do some soul searching. That fossil fuels (at least at the scale they’re used right now) have a limited lifespan was already well-known….

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  • Guns for lefties

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – 13 rounds in the magazine, plus one in the chamber. You could fire this thing 14 times without needing to reload. Only problem is, there’s a shortage of bullets due to a sudden surge in demand… A…

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  • Surviving the end of the world

    There is no such thing as “risk-free”. We often think about the risk of owning tech stocks, or not owning gold stocks. This year, we started to think about the risk of… seeing our friends, or doing the things we…

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  • The contingency plan of Argentina

    Ever wonder who founded our newsletter publishing company? Not Southbank Investment Research, but our friends in the US who preceded us. Well, it’s time to meet him. Bill Bonner and his wife, Elizabeth, have spent much of 2020 hunkered down…

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  • How did it come to this?

    For today’s installment, I’d like to share with you a podcast from my friend, Dan Denning. Dan is the co-editor of the Bonner-Denning letter in the US, and recently featured on a podcast series in the States. He very kindly…

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  • Lockdown Down Under

    “Where the bloody hell are you?” was the slogan in an Australian tourism campaign in 2006. It got banned in the UK… Today, the Aussie tourism industry doesn’t have to wonder any more. The country simply shut down one of…

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  • “Meanwhile, back at the ranch…”

    Something a little different in today’s note. Today’s Capital & Conflict is a postcard of sorts, from our company’s founding father – Bill Bonner – living out on his ranch in Argentina. Many of you will be familiar with Bill’s…

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  • Hushed up: the forgotten winters of ‘99 and ‘00

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well there goes the Quantitative Ease Double IPA! I told you you’d need to act fast yesterday – by the evening it was all sold out. To those who managed to snatch a few bottles, I hope…

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  • Pensions’ pandemic punishment

    Until the turn of the 20th century, being poor was seen as a moral failing in Britain. People living in poverty did so, it was believed, because they were inherently flawed, not because of any external factors. And, by that…

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  • Searching for “safe havens”

    I’m of the opinion that the pandemic hasn’t brought about that many new economic trends. Rather, it’s sped up existing ones. One of these is the search for safe havens – “safe” assets, typically perceived as some of the lowest…

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  • Approaching the iceberg

    HALF WAY INN, STOCKHOLM – Almost December, huh? This year has flown by faster for me than any other I can remember. Perhaps it’s a good thing that 2020 is “getting itself over with” so we can crack on with…

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  • Permanent moral mental market incapacity

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As the week draws to a close, it’s time for some light relief. We’ve written often about the strange happenings taking place in the bond market in recent years – like countries being paid to borrow money,…

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  • Free weddings and a funeral

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – The last time the Nikkei was this high, I hadn’t been born yet. Source: Fuller Treacy Money We’re a way off that ‘89 all-time high… but if the market has taught us anything this year, it’s that…

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  • A Greek Odyssey

    THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Stuff it under your mattress and you’ll make more interest” bellows a voice from across the pub. The suggestion is addressed to a gentleman seated on the opposite side of the room who’s been trying…

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  • Trillions

    THE HYDRO, DERBYSHIRE – Well the cat’s out of the bag now… If you haven’t seen yesterday’s announcement yet, I suggest you do so now.  That marks one of the largest events in the history of this company – certainly…

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  • The European Paradox

    REDWILLOW BREWERY, DERBYSHIRE – “The value of money has been destroyed by around 98% since I’ve been living there” a colleague tells me over video chat. “Inflation has been kicking around 50% for the past five or six years. Which…

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  • Late night drinking borrowing with the IMF

    53 DEGREES NORTH, DERBYSHIRE – “I should tell you to leave Sir. But tonight, I’d like you to keep on drinking.” Sadly, this is not something I’ve been told by any barmen on my ongoing voyage through English pubs. It…

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  • Honeytrapped: China’s “beautiful person plan investment plan”

    THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “[MI6] told me about honey-traps and warned me that the Chinese secret service often use women to entice men to bed to get information. I didn’t think for one minute that I would fall for…

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  • The psychology of selling

    Buy low sell high, goes the old mantra. So why is all the focus on buying? There are always two parts to a trade or an investment, but most people spend the majority of their time focusing on the former….

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  • I couldn’t let this stay behind a paywall

    I often come across pieces of editorial written by my colleagues that are so good that I feel compelled to share them only to remember that I cannot, for it wouldn’t be fair on their paying subscribers. I make exceptions…

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  • Blaming the snowflake for the avalanche

    For the last two days, I’ve been writing to you about a big risk in the financial markets. Volatility has been decreasing, but this doesn’t mean that risk has gone down. In fact, the opposite is true. Read those articles…

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  • Volatility, volatility, volatility

    Yesterday I wrote to you about the nature of risk. Contrary to wider market sentiment, I see huge risk building up in the financial markets. Read yesterday’s piece to get up to speed. What is risk? In capitalism, a risk…

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  • Return of the Pound Scots?

    The Scottish Independence referendum feels like an incredibly long time ago. The political drama has increased by a factor of 11 since then, but oh boy did it feel intense at the time. In retrospect, it was probably a great…

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  • Get out of jail free employment absolutely minted

    Why are CEOs bailing out of their companies like there’s a financial crisis on? They must not have got Donald Trump’s memo that everything is fine in the US economy. Or read the latest issue of The Fleet Street Letter,…

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  • Time of death debt

    Riddle me this: why have investors started paying to lend to the French government… as the yellow vest protests intensify? The yellow vest protests in France kicked off in full on 17 November. But since then, demand for French government…

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  • Who’s Going to Cut Down the Fairy Tree?

    YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We left the warm and friendly west coast of Central America on Friday. Now, we are on the south coast of Ireland. Still friendly, but less warm. We are here to check on Home Sweet Home… our…

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  • The One Thing You Need in This Market

    BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We looked back yesterday. Today, we will look ahead. As we will see, the past casts its shadow over the future. Bloomberg is on the case: Key Fed Yield Gauge Points to Rate Cuts for First Time…

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  • Would you like to be one of my turtle traders?

    I recently heard about an interesting experiment being conducted by my friend – $600m trader Eoin Treacy. If you’ve heard of the “Turtle Traders” experiment before, it’s something similar to that. I think it might be of interest to you….

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  • Moving billions through the financial crisis…

    As publisher at Southbank Investment Research, I work with a lot of outstanding market analysts and fund managers. Charlie Morris might well be the finest investor I know. He’s a city legend, frankly. For 17 years, he managed HSBC’s absolute…

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  • The future, in pictures: part II

    Before we get going, just a reminder that right now, there’s a way you can claim a free copy of Charlie Morris’s complete strategy for surviving the market downturn, “Surviving the Next Bear Market: a field guide for investors”. As…

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  • The future, in pictures: part I

    Today’s letter is a free peak at an issue of The Price Report, my colleague and friend Tim Price’s investment advisory. The issue was jam-packed with links to additional information worth looking at. Enjoy! The future, in pictures: part I…

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  • The houses built on sand

    Today I bring you a piece from Akhil Patel, editor of Cycles Trends & Forecasts. Akhil thinks we’re in a lull of a colossal bull market that will rip on into the 2020s. Not a very popular view at the…

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  • Honey for the bears?

    Hope you had a great weekend. I’m out of the office today, so no market commentary from me. Instead, I’ll leave you in the capable hands of Charlie Morris, with a snippet of his latest editorial for readers of The…

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  • Dow 10,000

    BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Trading continued on Thursday… with stocks swinging lustily from tree to tree like drunken monkeys. When the closing bell finally sounded, the Dow was down just 79 points. The monkeys were greatly relieved. And on Friday, the…

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  • When This Happens, Buy Stocks

    BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Today will be an interesting day. After falling the last two days, stocks should bounce. And the futures market says they will. But now, we will see what the speculators are really thinking. Will they want to…

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  • FAANG: The New “Nifty Fifty”

    BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Mr. Market must have gotten up on the wrong side of the bed on Monday. CNBC reports: The Dow fell 395 points to 25,017. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7 percent to 2,690 as the technology sector pulled…

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  • Has Big Data Stolen Your Freedom?

    PORTLAW, IRELAND – The Dow fell another 600 points on Wednesday. Look for a rebound. But here’s a helpful trading hint: Don’t buy the dip. Bloomberg tells us why the pros are getting out: Stocks in the S&P 500 have…

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  • Our Speech From Bermuda

    Editor’s Note: Bill is currently in Bermuda, speaking before readers attending the Legacy Investment Summit. In lieu of our usual article, below excerpt from his speech. In it, Bill reveals why, even in a world of seemingly infinite amounts of fake money…

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  • Pilots of Fortune

    The “reach for yield” – where investors take on more risk to scrape ever smaller returns – continues, despite the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raising rates. It’ll take many more rate hikes without something breaking before we…

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  • $1.4 Million… Right Into the Shredder

    Where the remote Bermudas ride In th’ ocean’s bosom unespy’d, From a small boat, that row’d along, The list’ning winds receiv’d this song. What should we do but sing his praise That led us through the wat’ry maze Unto an…

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  • Degradation ceremony

    The fallout from the Nasdaq nuke on Wednesday persists across markets. Asian markets have had a bounce, but in the West, stocks are suffering. The FTSE, the S&P, and the EuroStoxx have continued to bleed. And importantly, government bonds in…

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  • The Nasdaq gets nuked

    The men labelled by the Italian deputy prime minister as “the gentlemen of the spread” are roughing him up. Who are these “gentlemen of the spread”? In short, they’re investors selling Italian debt, and buying German debt instead. The buying…

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  • The Lone Ranger rides again

    The Lone Ranger has returned. Not in a reboot of the classic black and white western series, but in the US stockmarket. A master of disguise, he now goes by the handle “S&P 500”. In his guise as the US…

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  • A steamroller of a rollover

    If you were a government looking to default on some debts and didn’t want to ruffle many feathers, who would you decide to default on? Which lender would be the most politically palatable victim? And which would damage your credit…

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  • How Unearned Money Screwed Up America

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Kavanaugh… Kavanaugh… Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh in the morning. Kavanaugh in the evening. Kavanaugh at supper time. It’s Kavanaugh 24/7. And so the mud wrestling – wretched, tawdry, and disgraceful – continues. But today, we turn away… back to…

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  • The Greatest Financial Crime of the 21st Century

    The trees are in their autumn beauty, The woodland paths are dry, Under the October twilight the water Mirrors a still sky; Upon the brimming water among the stones Are nine-and-fifty swans. The nineteenth autumn has come upon me Since…

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  • Masters of perception

    A short letter today. I’m just off to host a quarterly conference call with Tim Price for subscribers of The Price Report. With the tenth anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy just two days away, it’s a time for reflection. What’s…

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  • Your plum pudding is in danger

    “What joins men together is not the sharing of bread but sharing of enemies.” – Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian More than a year ago when we had a hung parliament, I suggested in Capital & Conflict that those wanting power…

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  • There was a loud crack. The crowd gasped…

    CHERBOURG, FRANCE – Yesterday, on our way to the Cherbourg ferry, we stopped in at a local farm fair in Normandy. On display were the best cows in the region, along with a demonstration of old farming equipment. A batteuse…

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  • America’s Oil Boom Is a Fraud

    PARIS – You’ll recall that Fed policy always consists of the same three mistakes… 1) Keeping interest rates too low for too long, resulting in too much debt; 2) Raising interest rates to try to gently deflate the debt bubble;…

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  • America Is Headed to “Crazytown”

    PARIS – We’re having breakfast on the Île Saint-Louis in Paris… the first stop on a long trip. First, it will take us to Normandy, then via the ferry to Ireland… thence to Argentina, Germany, and Bermuda… before returning to…

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  • More Debt Won’t Make America Great Again

    POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday’s headline news, from Reuters: U.S. economic growth was a bit stronger than initially thought in the second quarter, notching its best performance in nearly four years, as businesses boosted spending on software and imports declined. Gross…

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  • The cruellest month awaits

    Another week, another member of the elite rings the alarm on the growing risk in the financial system. Harald Malmgren was a senior economic adviser to presidents John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. A consummate…

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  • With Tears in Their Eyes, They Fired…

    PARIS – We came up to Paris to say goodbye to a daughter… who is headed back to the U.S. She chose La Closerie des Lilas for dinner, the restaurant made famous as a Hemingway hangout. And there, in front…

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  • Why America Hasn’t Had a Raise in Forty Years

    POITOU, FRANCE – Whoa! What’s this? The Dow popped up nearly 400 points last Thursday. On Friday just 4% off its all-time high of 26,616, reached on January 26 of this year. And you know what that means. Markets are…

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  • Bad News for Our “Sh*thole Portfolio”

    [Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

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  • The problems with property

    My attempt to move to London continues today. We’re currently thwarted by a disappearing visa agent and a steady stream of stabbings in the news. But the marriage certificate is making its way through the Japanese bureaucracy. My surname has…

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  • The only debt they will try to repay

    Sovereign debt, corporate debt, margin lending, household debt, mortgage debt, consumer finance debt, student loan debt, and so on and so forth. Do you ever need to repay any of it? There are interest-only mortgages. Equity release can fund your…

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  • How to Buy a Million Gallons of Gas for a Dollar

    POITOU, FRANCE – The delusional, rock ’em-sock ’em, baroque news just keeps coming. We laugh readily; but even we are having a hard time keeping up. American Grifters Forbes claims that our Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, may be “one…

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  • Trump’s “Genius Hypothesis” Revealed

    POITOU, FRANCE – In a weekend tweet, the president of the United States of America made a stock market forecast. He said that prices will go up “dramatically” as he brings his Art of the Deal methods to international trade…

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  • Why the Boomers Are Going Broke

    POITOU, FRANCE – We were taken aback on Friday by the ferocity of our dear readers’ comments. What were they so sore about? we wondered.

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  • How $9 Trillion Disappears

    YOUGHAL, IRELAND – As a republic matures, it slides down-market… The rails are silently greased by the cronies and grifters who control policy measures for their own benefit… while the rabble rallies to campaign slogans and admires TV idols. The…

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  • The spearhead loses its edge

    Have you heard of a “vanward” before? It’s a word that’s sadly fallen out of use in recent times, but it actually applies well to financial markets today. In fact, if you’re reading this, you may well be a vanward!…

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  • Facebook: Noxious Fruit of the Fake Economy

    YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Last Thursday, as predicted by after-hours trading, Facebook lost $122 billion in market value, more than the GDP of 145 of the world’s economies. The Zuck alone lost nearly as much as Iceland’s annual GDP. USA Today…

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  • The FAANGs Will Crash

    [Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why….

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  • A Fungibles Trade War

    Plenty has happened since we examined the bizarre trade war developments yesterday. Donald Trump’s meeting with the EU’s Jean-Claude Junker can be summarised with this Bloomberg quote: Trump said he hoped for a “very positive” outcome from meeting with Juncker…

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  • Trade war duplicity

    Before we begin, there’s something urgent I need to alert you to. It’s regarding the incident that took place at our London Bridge office last week, and how it’s allowed us to offer a best ever deal on our most…

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  • Our Newest “Fixer-Upper”

    YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We spat on our hands and attacked a barn roof yesterday. The stone building has been abandoned for at least 100 years. Nobody locally can recall it ever being used. Many didn’t even know it was there….

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  • Inside Davy Jones’ locker

    What perils lie in wait for financial markets? I attended a conference in Blackfriars last week centred on just this question. This “risk horizon” event was intended for fund managers and other investment professionals. We’re on the fringe of the…

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  • What the Feds Won’t Say About Russian Meddling

    POITOU, FRANCE – “Trade fears hit stocks,” began this morning’s typical Wall Street report. Yesterday, we promised not to mention trade again. But we had our fingers crossed! Besides, through no fault of our own, it popped back into the…

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  • America’s Caesar

    The rich man’s wealth is his strong city, and as a high wall in his own conceit. – Proverbs 18:11 POITOU, FRANCE – “Render unto Caesar” is how we began Friday’s note. Today, we dig deeper to answer a Dear…

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  • The pension disappearing trick

    You wouldn’t expect a government actuary report to be terrifying. But let me tell you, the “Government Actuary’s Quinquennial Review of the National Insurance Fund as at April 2015” report definitely is. First, notice its rather optimistic assumptions. It modelled…

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  • The Great Canadian Shoe Heist

    POITOU, FRANCE – On Tuesday, when the Chinese woke up and heard The Donald threatening to impose an import tax on Chinese-made goods, they practically fell out of bed. There’s a 10% daily circuit-breaker limit in the Chinese stock market….

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  • Mistaking the thermostat for the thermometer

    With so much political action in Italy, the White House, Germany and Brexit Britain, we’ve been neglecting the global financial markets. Against the dollar, the pound is down almost 8% from its peak in January after a 17% rally that…

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  • Ike was right!

    POITOU, FRANCE – We wait for the world to fall apart. The Dow is still more than 1,000 points below its high; so we presume the primary trend is down. Treasury yields – on the 10-year note – are near…

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  • Global bonds wobble to inversion

    Earthquakes are especially disconcerting when you’re sitting on the toilet. Perhaps that’s why they make them so comfortable here in Japan. Before I’d emerged from the bathroom, the various family members across the country had already checked in with each…

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  • Were We Wrong About Everything?

    POITOU, FRANCE – Well, it looks like we were wrong about everything. Everything. The Fed. Donald J. Trump. The stock market. The economy. Even the weather. Yesterday, we looked at the sky and forecast rain. Instead, the sun came out….

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  • Marriage: The Original Win-Win

    POITOU, FRANCE – You can divide the world’s people – all its bumblers, fumblers, fools, and saints – into two categories. There are the decent people who go about their business trying to improve their lives by honest toil, invention,…

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  • The True Mission of Trump’s Team

    PARIS – Last week, it was war with Europe. This week, it’s bombs over Toronto. Plans are being drawn up for two walls. One across the southern border to keep Mexicans out. And one across the 49th parallel to keep…

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  • How to defeat your three most costly investing mistakes

    An extra edition for you today… Today we have a bonus article from whip-smart trader and $600 money manager Eoin Treacy. I asked Eoin to share with you his approach to overcoming nothing less than our embedded human failures. I…

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  • Your retirement is a political promise

    It’s always fun to see the government fail the very people who stir it into action. Prohibitionists who fall victim to organised crime gangs. Warmongers who get called up in the draft. Rent control advocates who live in dilapidated buildings….

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  • Why Social Security Must Fail

    I think the greatest threat domestically to the country is this $21 trillion debt hanging over the cloud of America and future generations. – Outgoing Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz on CNBC POITOU, FRANCE – Uh oh. The “social welfare” systems…

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  • Should We Buy This Irish Manor?

    YOUGHAL, IRELAND – What a beautiful time… to be in Ireland! In the evening, the sun lingers in the sky, lighting up the millions of snowflake-like willow fluff. Like cattails, they waft around on the breeze, so light that they…

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  • Raise a Glass: Save the Ranch, Part Dos

    You already know about our ranch in Argentina. As we explained last year, it is not very productive or practical. It is too far, too high, and too dry. It is marginal in almost every way. The cows are too…

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  • Password: Azusol32

    I stepped out of the office into the bright afternoon, and paused for a moment. On the face of it, I was about to make a completely stupid move. In pursuit of something that nobody seems to value these days,…

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  • The taste of snake

    “It’s impossible not to commit fraud in this job,” said a voice from across the table. I raised my eyebrows. Others around me did not – this was not surprising to them. Who would say such a thing? What profession…

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  • Abandon your pension mountaineering

    My mum lives in front of the Wilder Kaiser. It’s a pretty mountain in Austria. The top half is a shiny face of bare rock which glows in the afternoon sun. You can climb up and over through the Ellmau…

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  • Trade war casualties pile up fast

    The EU’s pride is the latest casualty of Donald Trump’s trade war. But it’s not the only recent victim. The push for “fair trade” is causing all sorts of problems in every corner of the world. The worst seem unrelated…

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  • Tied to a Park Bench, Covered in Motor Oil

    YOUGHAL, IRELAND – On Monday, a small landmark was passed. A tweet yesterday morning: For the first time since the financial crisis, the 3-month Treasury yield has surpassed the yield on the S&P 500. Small investors look for big, risky…

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  • What do you actually own?

    Do you really own something if it’s controlled by the government? Property rights are a precondition for prosperity. The idea is that you own yourself, your property and the fruits of your labour. This basic concept is fairly new in…

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  • The secret formula for divine fire

    Today, I’m going to share a secret with you. It’s a hidden recipe for a life-changing concoction. The Aztecs called it the “Divine Messenger”. The very first anthropologist said of those that consumed it, “it sustains them and gives them…

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  • Bad News: We’re Homeless

    DUBLIN – Last week ended on a high note: “Stocks rally after jobless rate sinks to 3.9%,” said a headline at Bloomberg on Friday. “Jobless Rate at 17-Year Low,” added The Wall Street Journal front-page on Saturday. “Solid,” was how analysts described…

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  • Let’s play a game

    It’s called “good news or bad news”. I’m going to reveal news to you. And you have to guess whether it’s good or bad. The point being that you’re guessing. I don’t know the answer either. So don’t try too…

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  • 100% Chance of Recession

    So, so you think you can tell Heaven from hell… Blue skies from pain – Pink Floyd, “Wish You Were Here” PORTLAW, IRELAND – We left off yesterday with the biggest question in philosophy hanging from our lips like a cold cigarette……

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  • How to Calculate the End of the World

    You must remember this. A kiss is still a kiss, a sigh is still a sigh. The fundamental things apply As time goes by. – Dooley Wilson, “As Time Goes By” PORTLAW, IRELAND – Poor Florence Newton. The young woman…

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  • Opt out of the blunder from Down Under

    Capital & Conflict offers you a simple piece of advice: opt out of the blunder from Down Under. As the news furore over the immigration debacle reaches fever pitch in the UK, let’s take a look at the nation which…

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  • The pension panic is coming

    If you know something is going to happen in the future, when do you react to it? More importantly for the purpose of making money in financial markets, when is everyone else going to react? Because that’s when prices move….

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  • Rejecting Tradition Created a Monster

    BARCELONA – The Dow stumbled on Tuesday, ending down some 425 points. Nothing serious. More importantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has crept up towards 3% this week, briefly hitting the milestone on Tuesday. Our research department is…

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  • Taper tantrum take 3

    For months it’s been all about 3%. Investment analysts, traders, managers and commentators all agreed: if the ten-year US Treasury bond hits 3%, something is going to snap. Well, according to Bloomberg radio, yesterday was the big day. For the…

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  • Why Deficits “Don’t Matter”

    NORMANDY, FRANCE – Bitcoin is making itself useful. Bloomberg is on the case: “Bolívar to Bitcoin Market Hits Record $1 Million Per Day” The Venezuelan bolívar to bitcoin market reached a record on Tuesday, as the dollar-starved nation increasingly seeks…

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  • The return to a natural state

    Today we imagine a return to a normal world. Or at least try to. Because it wouldn’t last long. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein gave an interview on CNBC after his company announced its earnings for the first quarter of…

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  • The Second Coming of Sub-prime

    Do you remember when sub-prime mortgages were a small problem in an obscure part of the US mortgage market? Next thing, all hell broke loose. Well today we investigate a similar scenario. At first, it appears to be a small…

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  • Trump’s Deal With the Deep State

    A cigarette that bears a lipstick’s traces An airline ticket to romantic places – Billie Holiday, “These Foolish Things (Remind Me of You)” BALTIMORE – South Beach… Last week, we were sitting in the hotel restaurant in Miami Beach having…

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  • They all roll over, but who falls out?

    Blowing up some portion of Syria’s chemical weapons infrastructure changes everything. Or nothing, depending on who you ask. Don’t ask me. All I know is that we’re walking into whatever was planned for us. If Bashar al-Assad actually launched a…

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  • Excesses of the evergreen empire

    It’s been an interesting week in financial markets. FTSE: flat. Gold: up. War stocks: up. As I write, cryptocurrencies are catching a bid again. If your portfolio is in the green today, you’re probably a cynic, or as the Americans…

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  • The Economy Will Lose a Few Teeth…

    MIAMI – Guggenheim investment fund’s global chief investment officer Scott Minerd predicts a 40% decline for the Dow… mostly in 2019. He says the U.S. economy is on a “collision course with disaster.” He’s right – at least about the…

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  • The prospects of the US dollar

    Let’s delve deep into the future of the US dollar. That’s another way of saying we’re talking about everything at once. Because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the currency of the biggest economy, the currency of international trade…

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  • People Lose. Swamp Wins.

    Good God almighty! Good God almighty! That killed him! As God is my witness, he is broken in half! – Announcer Jim Ross, on the occasion of a WWE match in Pittsburgh’s Civic Arena, June 28, 1998 SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL…

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  • The Best Bet for U.S. Stocks

    BUENOS AIRES – Our stay in Argentina was cut short. One of our two daughters had a baby. We hasten thither to see her, our fourth grandchild. In the meantime… Usual Errors What we were getting at last week was that there…

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  • What Trump’s Quack Economists Will Do Next

    SALTA, ARGENTINA – Up. Down. Up. Down. We followed the action on Wall Street yesterday, wondering… where was it going? The headlines told us that investors were nervous about a trade war. Bloomberg was on the case early: Fears of…

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  • The Source of America’s Economic Illness

    SALTA, ARGENTINA – Up, down. Up, down. What to make of it? The stock market is in denial, struggling with the idea, not quite willing to give in… not quite willing to admit that the bull market of 2009–2018 is…

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  • Invited to an Originario Party

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Uh oh… That poor girl has Down syndrome,” Elizabeth noticed. “How do you know?” “You can see it. It used to be called ‘mongoloidism’ because of the way it distorts the face.” Mountain Party We had been…

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  • The energy to dump the dollar

    We hope you had a happy Easter. The US financial markets didn’t. They were open yesterday. And it wasn’t a pretty sight. The worst opening day for the second quarter since the Great Depression led the S&P 500 below its…

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  • DeFAANGed and disappearing

    American markets were down again overnight. But only marginally so. The few stocks that led the market up are now taking it back down again. A series of scandals are behind their drops. But how can a select few companies…

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  • Discovered in the Abandoned Valley

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Big Tech led the way up. It will probably be in the lead on the way down, too. Bloomberg: The market’s darlings just suffered the worst day in at least three years. The NYSE FANG+ index, tracking…

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  • No returns since the Millennium

    Stocks went back to their falling ways once more overnight. It seems the occasional respite is just a so-called “dead cat bounce”. The problem with a bear market now is that it begins with the FTSE index at the level…

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  • All Hail the Techs

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – All hail the techs! The stock market bounced back with a big gain on Monday. The buy-the-dippers gained a couple of points. The future can wait; the big crash is still ahead.

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  • Stocks Are Headed for a Thunderstorm

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We got up before dawn this morning. We’re taking a cluster of our grapes over to the neighboring ranch, Tacuil. There, Raul – the winemaker – will tell us if the sugar content is high enough to…

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  • Trillion pound porridge

    “Stress level quite close.” So ended an email I received from Charlie Morris yesterday. I had asked him his thoughts on a recent spike in a metric that’s built in to more than £250 trillion of assets around the world….

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  • Mistreatment after a misdiagnosis

    If you’ve ever found yourself wondering why the financial industry doesn’t learn from its mistakes, today’s Capital & Conflict is for you. Financial crises are bizarrely common given how painful they can be. Bankers seem to learn slower than toddlers…

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  • Why Wall Street’s Seasoned Pros Are Jumping Ship

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We’re getting into an agreeable and relaxed routine here at the ranch. We go for a hike up the little hill behind the house in the morning. A trail zig-zags up, with the stations of the cross…

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  • Money making melodies

    What do you reckon this is? I thought it was from a real estate brochure. I was disappointed to find that you can’t live in there as this is the inside of a violin (I suppose the watermark is a…

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  • What would a recession do now?

    It’s always difficult to predict the state of the economy. But at the moment, I don’t even know what state it’s currently in. Unemployment around the world is impressively low. Monetary policy is pushing extraordinary amounts of stimulus. Growth and…

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  • Cornered by a Snake

    And the Lord God said unto the serpent, Because you have done this, you are cursed above all cattle, and above every beast of the field; upon your belly shall you go, and dust shall you eat all the days…

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  • Yielding nonsense spells trouble

    Reading a publication called The Interest Rate Observer might sound awfully boring. But right now, it’s interesting. And that’s not a good thing. Take for example this simple factoid. Telecom Italia’s bond, which expires in 2022 and carries low credit…

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  • The problem with a property price slowdown

    The UK’s property boom is sputtering and stuttering. You should be very worried about what happens next. House prices fell nationally in the last three months reported Halifax. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price index hit zero…

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  • Buying Stocks Doesn’t Make You an Investor

    GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We continue our exploration… …of why the stock market is a fraud… …why investors’ savings are not really funding U.S. business… … why instead, they are aiding and abetting a multitrillion-dollar rip-off… …and how the ripper-offers are…

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  • To define is to limit

    Volatility as a concept is widely misunderstood. Volatility is not fear. Volatility is not the VIX index. Volatility is not a statistic or a standard deviation, or any other number derived by abstract formula. Volatility is no different in markets…

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