Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom VAUXHALL, LONDON – Well dear reader, we had a good run. But today marks the end of the line for Capital & Conflict. From here on out, this newsletter…

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Of course they won’t call it that. But the media and the protesters will. And it’ll feel like one. The countdown to our next lockdown has already begun. That’s…

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” explained Yogi Berra. But it’s been a good run for Fortune & Freedom so far. The bitcoin price boomed after…

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom It may well be that lockdowns are a good idea, that nations should theoretically open up after reaching some vaccine threshold, that track and trace will prevent outbreaks according…

The first idea is simple. For a few weeks, markets have been worrying about whether the central banks will taper, meaning they will begin to withdraw their quantitative easing (QE – the creation of money to buy government bonds and other securities) and other forms of loose monetary policy.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past 25 years, investors have bought – on average – $115 million worth of stocks around the world every trading day. That comes to roughly $29 billion entering the stock market every year.

Now you might think that we are finally getting somewhere when it comes to this pandemic thing. Perhaps we’re even getting towards the end of it. But I’m not so sure that the vaccines will save us and unlock the global economy.

I’m getting worried the global economic recovery from the pandemic is about to go very sour. And with it, asset prices. In fact, a recession may well be on the horizon. The reason is simple. Economists might be able to count the amount of economic activity, but not whether it’s worth it.

It’s time to dig into the mailbag today. Your demands for a virtual conference on escaping financial repression have been heard, loud and clear, by the way.

And so, for today, let’s look into the damage done by financial repression in the form of low interest rates, what happened when one reader attempted to buy cryptocurrencies to escape financial repression, and more…

I’ve always known different nations’ news channels report the same news entirely differently. I follow the news from the UK, Germany, Australia and the United States each day. And they’ve offered completely different facts and “science” throughout the pandemic.

House prices around the world are booming in the midst of a pandemic, not to mention despite Brexit. But why? And will it last?

As you’re about to discover, I believe this goes beyond the usual housing bubble. But first, the data…

But consider this. Your definition of the word “risk” and the definition used by the financial industry serving you is completely different. And the gap is the source of rather a lot of anguish, if you ask me.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – We must end the week on a sombre note. For tomorrow is a grave day indeed…

It was in 1740 when the Royal Navy first formalised a daily rum ration for sailors aboard Her Majesty’s ships – what would become fondly known as “the tot”.

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Watch the live stream this Friday We’ll be streaming our latest episode of Southbank Live on Friday at 10am here on YouTube – my guest this week is our…

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – “Whales” in capital markets – those individuals, funds and other players with enormous investment positions – are dangerous beasts.

They can move markets with their trades, and if you get in their way, they can crush your portfolio.

While I’m sure Her Majesty’s fine crew at the “Doughnut” in Cheltenham can trace my movements with ease, there’s something uniquely dystopian about willingly installing government surveillance tech on to one’s own electronics for “the greater good”, so I never installed the Test & Trace app.

I hope you’ve been getting some decent weather, wherever you happen to be reading this. Sure is toasty out here – but as Nickolai Hubble will tell you, the temperature is rising even further in inflation statistics…

“Freedom In Name Only”, or FRINO, was the topic of our latest Fortune & Freedom podcast with Nickolai Hubble and Nigel Farage – while you’re celebrating our state-sanctioned “freedom”, I encourage you to give it a listen.

GALLERY 48, DUNDEE – “History might be rhyming, but there are a lot of different songs being played at the same time” says Nickolai Hubble of the current investing environment. When looking forward into the 2020s, we wonder what market…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Do you remember what happens after a housing bubble bursts? That’s what my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble would like to ask you in today’s letter – for it seems many have forgotten. But before we…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A quick note before we begin today. I’ll be hosting an online event tomorrow with a very special guest. He’s an American CEO with quite the investment tale to tell, and if you’re interested in streamlining your…

Editor’s note: With the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs this week, optimism is abounding in markets. But as you’ll see below, optimism has a danger to it where markets are concerned. With analysts forecasting the fastest economic growth…

The “Einstein of money” wasn’t much of a husband or father. His first divorce was in 1937, when divorce was still taboo. He left his wife for a young actress, and became an absentee father to his four stigmatised children….

VARNA, BULGARIA For a moment, think of Capital & Conflict (and the other Southbank Investment Research publications) as a kind of prism. If you look through that prism, you will see the world of investment a certain way. The world…

VARNA, BULGARIA Thursday 24 June was an important day for the many pension funds, insurance companies and other institutions that invest in foreign stock markets. It was the day that MSCI announced its annual Market Classification Review. MSCI is a…

HEILIGENSTADT, VIENNA Vienna as a whole is pretty flat. However, we do have a hill here in Heiligenstadt. To climb up it, from the Karl Marx-Hof at the bottom to the ZAMG – Austria’s Met Office – at the top,…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH ­– My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble is no stranger to controversy. Truth be told, he likes to stir it quite a bit. This note he penned for Fortune & Freedom (click here to subscribe) is…

“A lethal dose to anyone within ten yards. Get it while it’s hot!” – Edge of Darkness (1985) NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Do I count any nuclear bulls amongst the readership? Anyone stacking uranium rods at home, or stuffing them…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Edinburgh, like so many cities, looks its best in the sun. When the rays hit it just right, the sandstone skyline shines like gold. And shine it has over the past few days – we’ve had…

THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble isn’t one for political correctness. As I like to say, he won’t screw a silencer on his speech. This might preclude him from various other professions and speaking opportunities,…

THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – There’s been a bit of drama here at Southbank Investment Research of late. It’s about our Beyond Oil Summit which goes live on Wednesday (get access here if you haven’t signed up yet). The subject of…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Our very first Beyond Oil Summit feels like a different epoch… but it was only last year. Our plans for the event, featuring first-class energy experts on the future of black gold, began at the very beginning…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Well, the results are in from Monday’s poll… And I must say, I’m a little surprised: A lot of oil bulls out there – nearly three quarters of respondents. And there I was thinking I had a…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – They called them the Seven Sisters. Seven companies which ruled the world. It all began in August 1928, at a castle called Achnacarry. It’s in the Highlands, near Ben Nevis – about half an hour’s drive from…

STOCKBRIDGE, EDINBURGH – A short note from me this morning, I’m just off to interview a certain gold expert based in the microstate of Liechtenstein. This gold discussion will be the final instalment our 2021 Gold Summit – after the…

THE STANDING ORDER, EDINBURGH – It almost feels like things are getting back to normal here. Almost. The streets are thronging with folk. Not so many as pre-WuFlu, but it’s damn busy nonetheless. There are enough tourists on the Royal…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I was given a set of lockpicks for my birthday a few years ago. I’d always wanted a set when I was a kid after reading one too many adventure novels, and a relative of mine thought…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – In yesterday’s note, I published a few responses I’ve received from the readership on the curious case of Tesla. Broadly speaking, most of the letters I received took a negative view on the company – or at…

Big oil’s going green. Sort of. The onset of the pandemic last year left oil companies to do some soul searching. That fossil fuels (at least at the scale they’re used right now) have a limited lifespan was already well-known….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – 13 rounds in the magazine, plus one in the chamber. You could fire this thing 14 times without needing to reload. Only problem is, there’s a shortage of bullets due to a sudden surge in demand… A…

There is no such thing as “risk-free”. We often think about the risk of owning tech stocks, or not owning gold stocks. This year, we started to think about the risk of… seeing our friends, or doing the things we…

Ever wonder who founded our newsletter publishing company? Not Southbank Investment Research, but our friends in the US who preceded us. Well, it’s time to meet him. Bill Bonner and his wife, Elizabeth, have spent much of 2020 hunkered down…

For today’s installment, I’d like to share with you a podcast from my friend, Dan Denning. Dan is the co-editor of the Bonner-Denning letter in the US, and recently featured on a podcast series in the States. He very kindly…

“Where the bloody hell are you?” was the slogan in an Australian tourism campaign in 2006. It got banned in the UK… Today, the Aussie tourism industry doesn’t have to wonder any more. The country simply shut down one of…

Something a little different in today’s note. Today’s Capital & Conflict is a postcard of sorts, from our company’s founding father – Bill Bonner – living out on his ranch in Argentina. Many of you will be familiar with Bill’s…

Until the turn of the 20th century, being poor was seen as a moral failing in Britain. People living in poverty did so, it was believed, because they were inherently flawed, not because of any external factors. And, by that…

I’m of the opinion that the pandemic hasn’t brought about that many new economic trends. Rather, it’s sped up existing ones. One of these is the search for safe havens – “safe” assets, typically perceived as some of the lowest…

HALF WAY INN, STOCKHOLM – Almost December, huh? This year has flown by faster for me than any other I can remember. Perhaps it’s a good thing that 2020 is “getting itself over with” so we can crack on with…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As the week draws to a close, it’s time for some light relief. We’ve written often about the strange happenings taking place in the bond market in recent years – like countries being paid to borrow money,…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – The last time the Nikkei was this high, I hadn’t been born yet. Source: Fuller Treacy Money We’re a way off that ‘89 all-time high… but if the market has taught us anything this year, it’s that…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Stuff it under your mattress and you’ll make more interest” bellows a voice from across the pub. The suggestion is addressed to a gentleman seated on the opposite side of the room who’s been trying…

THE HYDRO, DERBYSHIRE – Well the cat’s out of the bag now… If you haven’t seen yesterday’s announcement yet, I suggest you do so now.  That marks one of the largest events in the history of this company – certainly…

REDWILLOW BREWERY, DERBYSHIRE – “The value of money has been destroyed by around 98% since I’ve been living there” a colleague tells me over video chat. “Inflation has been kicking around 50% for the past five or six years. Which…

53 DEGREES NORTH, DERBYSHIRE – “I should tell you to leave Sir. But tonight, I’d like you to keep on drinking.” Sadly, this is not something I’ve been told by any barmen on my ongoing voyage through English pubs. It…

Buy low sell high, goes the old mantra. So why is all the focus on buying? There are always two parts to a trade or an investment, but most people spend the majority of their time focusing on the former….

I often come across pieces of editorial written by my colleagues that are so good that I feel compelled to share them only to remember that I cannot, for it wouldn’t be fair on their paying subscribers. I make exceptions…

For the last two days, I’ve been writing to you about a big risk in the financial markets. Volatility has been decreasing, but this doesn’t mean that risk has gone down. In fact, the opposite is true. Read those articles…

Yesterday I wrote to you about the nature of risk. Contrary to wider market sentiment, I see huge risk building up in the financial markets. Read yesterday’s piece to get up to speed. What is risk? In capitalism, a risk…

The Scottish Independence referendum feels like an incredibly long time ago. The political drama has increased by a factor of 11 since then, but oh boy did it feel intense at the time. In retrospect, it was probably a great…

Why are CEOs bailing out of their companies like there’s a financial crisis on? They must not have got Donald Trump’s memo that everything is fine in the US economy. Or read the latest issue of The Fleet Street Letter,…

Riddle me this: why have investors started paying to lend to the French government… as the yellow vest protests intensify? The yellow vest protests in France kicked off in full on 17 November. But since then, demand for French government…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We left the warm and friendly west coast of Central America on Friday. Now, we are on the south coast of Ireland. Still friendly, but less warm. We are here to check on Home Sweet Home… our…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We looked back yesterday. Today, we will look ahead. As we will see, the past casts its shadow over the future. Bloomberg is on the case: Key Fed Yield Gauge Points to Rate Cuts for First Time…

As publisher at Southbank Investment Research, I work with a lot of outstanding market analysts and fund managers. Charlie Morris might well be the finest investor I know. He’s a city legend, frankly. For 17 years, he managed HSBC’s absolute…

Before we get going, just a reminder that right now, there’s a way you can claim a free copy of Charlie Morris’s complete strategy for surviving the market downturn, “Surviving the Next Bear Market: a field guide for investors”. As…

Today’s letter is a free peak at an issue of The Price Report, my colleague and friend Tim Price’s investment advisory. The issue was jam-packed with links to additional information worth looking at. Enjoy! The future, in pictures: part I…

Today I bring you a piece from Akhil Patel, editor of Cycles Trends & Forecasts. Akhil thinks we’re in a lull of a colossal bull market that will rip on into the 2020s. Not a very popular view at the…

Hope you had a great weekend. I’m out of the office today, so no market commentary from me. Instead, I’ll leave you in the capable hands of Charlie Morris, with a snippet of his latest editorial for readers of The…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Trading continued on Thursday… with stocks swinging lustily from tree to tree like drunken monkeys. When the closing bell finally sounded, the Dow was down just 79 points. The monkeys were greatly relieved. And on Friday, the…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Today will be an interesting day. After falling the last two days, stocks should bounce. And the futures market says they will. But now, we will see what the speculators are really thinking. Will they want to…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Mr. Market must have gotten up on the wrong side of the bed on Monday. CNBC reports: The Dow fell 395 points to 25,017. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7 percent to 2,690 as the technology sector pulled…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – The Dow fell another 600 points on Wednesday. Look for a rebound. But here’s a helpful trading hint: Don’t buy the dip. Bloomberg tells us why the pros are getting out: Stocks in the S&P 500 have…

The “reach for yield” – where investors take on more risk to scrape ever smaller returns – continues, despite the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raising rates. It’ll take many more rate hikes without something breaking before we…

Where the remote Bermudas ride In th’ ocean’s bosom unespy’d, From a small boat, that row’d along, The list’ning winds receiv’d this song. What should we do but sing his praise That led us through the wat’ry maze Unto an…

The fallout from the Nasdaq nuke on Wednesday persists across markets. Asian markets have had a bounce, but in the West, stocks are suffering. The FTSE, the S&P, and the EuroStoxx have continued to bleed. And importantly, government bonds in…

The men labelled by the Italian deputy prime minister as “the gentlemen of the spread” are roughing him up. Who are these “gentlemen of the spread”? In short, they’re investors selling Italian debt, and buying German debt instead. The buying…

The Lone Ranger has returned. Not in a reboot of the classic black and white western series, but in the US stockmarket. A master of disguise, he now goes by the handle “S&P 500”. In his guise as the US…

If you were a government looking to default on some debts and didn’t want to ruffle many feathers, who would you decide to default on? Which lender would be the most politically palatable victim? And which would damage your credit…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Kavanaugh… Kavanaugh… Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh in the morning. Kavanaugh in the evening. Kavanaugh at supper time. It’s Kavanaugh 24/7. And so the mud wrestling – wretched, tawdry, and disgraceful – continues. But today, we turn away… back to…

The trees are in their autumn beauty, The woodland paths are dry, Under the October twilight the water Mirrors a still sky; Upon the brimming water among the stones Are nine-and-fifty swans. The nineteenth autumn has come upon me Since…

A short letter today. I’m just off to host a quarterly conference call with Tim Price for subscribers of The Price Report. With the tenth anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy just two days away, it’s a time for reflection. What’s…

CHERBOURG, FRANCE – Yesterday, on our way to the Cherbourg ferry, we stopped in at a local farm fair in Normandy. On display were the best cows in the region, along with a demonstration of old farming equipment. A batteuse…

PARIS – You’ll recall that Fed policy always consists of the same three mistakes… 1) Keeping interest rates too low for too long, resulting in too much debt; 2) Raising interest rates to try to gently deflate the debt bubble;…

PARIS – We’re having breakfast on the Île Saint-Louis in Paris… the first stop on a long trip. First, it will take us to Normandy, then via the ferry to Ireland… thence to Argentina, Germany, and Bermuda… before returning to…

POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday’s headline news, from Reuters: U.S. economic growth was a bit stronger than initially thought in the second quarter, notching its best performance in nearly four years, as businesses boosted spending on software and imports declined. Gross…

Another week, another member of the elite rings the alarm on the growing risk in the financial system. Harald Malmgren was a senior economic adviser to presidents John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. A consummate…

PARIS – We came up to Paris to say goodbye to a daughter… who is headed back to the U.S. She chose La Closerie des Lilas for dinner, the restaurant made famous as a Hemingway hangout. And there, in front…

POITOU, FRANCE – Whoa! What’s this? The Dow popped up nearly 400 points last Thursday. On Friday just 4% off its all-time high of 26,616, reached on January 26 of this year. And you know what that means. Markets are…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

My attempt to move to London continues today. We’re currently thwarted by a disappearing visa agent and a steady stream of stabbings in the news. But the marriage certificate is making its way through the Japanese bureaucracy. My surname has…

POITOU, FRANCE – The delusional, rock ’em-sock ’em, baroque news just keeps coming. We laugh readily; but even we are having a hard time keeping up. American Grifters Forbes claims that our Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, may be “one…

POITOU, FRANCE – In a weekend tweet, the president of the United States of America made a stock market forecast. He said that prices will go up “dramatically” as he brings his Art of the Deal methods to international trade…

POITOU, FRANCE – We were taken aback on Friday by the ferocity of our dear readers’ comments. What were they so sore about? we wondered.

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – As a republic matures, it slides down-market… The rails are silently greased by the cronies and grifters who control policy measures for their own benefit… while the rabble rallies to campaign slogans and admires TV idols. The…

Have you heard of a “vanward” before? It’s a word that’s sadly fallen out of use in recent times, but it actually applies well to financial markets today. In fact, if you’re reading this, you may well be a vanward!…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Last Thursday, as predicted by after-hours trading, Facebook lost $122 billion in market value, more than the GDP of 145 of the world’s economies. The Zuck alone lost nearly as much as Iceland’s annual GDP. USA Today…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why….

Plenty has happened since we examined the bizarre trade war developments yesterday. Donald Trump’s meeting with the EU’s Jean-Claude Junker can be summarised with this Bloomberg quote: Trump said he hoped for a “very positive” outcome from meeting with Juncker…

Before we begin, there’s something urgent I need to alert you to. It’s regarding the incident that took place at our London Bridge office last week, and how it’s allowed us to offer a best ever deal on our most…

What perils lie in wait for financial markets? I attended a conference in Blackfriars last week centred on just this question. This “risk horizon” event was intended for fund managers and other investment professionals. We’re on the fringe of the…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Trade fears hit stocks,” began this morning’s typical Wall Street report. Yesterday, we promised not to mention trade again. But we had our fingers crossed! Besides, through no fault of our own, it popped back into the…

The rich man’s wealth is his strong city, and as a high wall in his own conceit. – Proverbs 18:11 POITOU, FRANCE – “Render unto Caesar” is how we began Friday’s note. Today, we dig deeper to answer a Dear…

You wouldn’t expect a government actuary report to be terrifying. But let me tell you, the “Government Actuary’s Quinquennial Review of the National Insurance Fund as at April 2015” report definitely is. First, notice its rather optimistic assumptions. It modelled…

POITOU, FRANCE – On Tuesday, when the Chinese woke up and heard The Donald threatening to impose an import tax on Chinese-made goods, they practically fell out of bed. There’s a 10% daily circuit-breaker limit in the Chinese stock market….

With so much political action in Italy, the White House, Germany and Brexit Britain, we’ve been neglecting the global financial markets. Against the dollar, the pound is down almost 8% from its peak in January after a 17% rally that…

POITOU, FRANCE – We wait for the world to fall apart. The Dow is still more than 1,000 points below its high; so we presume the primary trend is down. Treasury yields – on the 10-year note – are near…

Earthquakes are especially disconcerting when you’re sitting on the toilet. Perhaps that’s why they make them so comfortable here in Japan. Before I’d emerged from the bathroom, the various family members across the country had already checked in with each…

POITOU, FRANCE – Well, it looks like we were wrong about everything. Everything. The Fed. Donald J. Trump. The stock market. The economy. Even the weather. Yesterday, we looked at the sky and forecast rain. Instead, the sun came out….