Part of Charlie’s new project will be keeping up with the Brexit debate. After yesterday’s interview with Robert Colvile on the subject, I ran across these two maps from the “leave campaign”. The maps claim to show that Britain would put £236bn of external trade at risk by leaving the European Union.
How is that figure arrived at? At present, 50% of UK exports totalling £148bn go to the EU. The EU is negotiating trade deals with other countries that buy £88bn worth of UK exports. If Britain were to lose all those exports, or access to all those markets, trade would collapse catastrophically. The chart also shows Britain from being safely ensconced in a dark blue world to being in a little old red island all by itself.
Is it an exaggeration to suggest Britain would lose £236bn in exports by leaving the EU? Of course it is.
Is some of that trade at risk?
Probably so. Could Britain do even better and actually increase trade by leaving the EU? Probably so!
No one knows what the impact on exports would be if/when Britain leaves the EU. Putting some thought into that impact is part of making a prudent decision. But part of the result depends on how Britain’s current and potential trading partners react. And that we can’t know for sure.
But we can ask. And we can investigate. And that’s what we’ll be doing more of in 2016. Suffice it to say, for today, that it’s a scare tactic to claim that Britain will be isolated, alone, powerless, and diminished if it leaves Europe.
Category: Brexit