Dan Denning

$22 trillion and QE4EVA… The inflation temptation and gold or government bonds?… Flow towers, victory gardens, and boltholes… NEW PLYMOUTH, TARANAKI – The Fed is going to make this sucker blow. That’s what I found myself thinking this morning, looking…

Editor’s Note: The Bonner & Partners offices were closed last Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. In lieu of our regularly scheduled Diary, we share the below guest essay from Bill’s righthand man, Dan Denning. As Bill reported previously, central…

Editor’s Note: Last week, President Trump accused Silicon Valley giant Google of censoring conservative-leaning articles in its search results. Google denied the charge. But Dan Denning, Bill’s coauthor on The Bill Bonner Letter, thinks the president might be on to…

You shouldn’t ignore genuine opportunities to make money. Did you see that Microsoft sold $17 billion worth of bonds on Monday? The US tech giant is one of just two US corporates with an AAA credit rating (the other is…

Surprise! Your usual host, the lovely Nick O’Connor, is out today. Well, he’s preparing for a sit-down interview with Eoin Treacy (from Trigger Point Trader and Frontier Tech Investor). Eoin’s flown over from Trump-ravaged America and has a hot new…

Oh what a tangled web the markets are weaving for us today, dear reader! All the post-Trump trends in the market – strong dollar, strong oil, falling bonds – are under threat. But the biggest threat to stocks could come…

We interrupt your normal edition of Capital & Conflict for a chance to take a broadside at conventional wisdom. The opportunity presents itself courtesy of the mouthpiece of “received wisdom” in the British financial media. It’s a target rich environment…

There are two looming sources of political instability that could lead to market volatility in the next month. The first is clearly the US elections. The second is what happens after the US elections. If I’m right, the aftermath of…

Well it looks like I picked the wrong day to trash hydrocarbons. Yesterday I quoted FactSet data suggesting that earnings in the S&P 500 energy sector could fall by 66% in the third quarter. They still could, mind you. But…

Repeat after me: There is no recovery in corporate earnings. There is only an explosion in debt, driven by central bank policies that have produced no growth and wasted time. Time is the most precious resource of all. Its misallocation…

Today we pen an ode to easy money and bull markets without regret (or critical thinking). Maybe it’s not worth it to fight the Fed, or to point out how low interest rates have inflated stock and bond prices. Maybe…

There’s no way around it so let’s get straight into it. In today’s letter, we have to deal with what the US Federal Reserve did and said yesterday. Let’s begin with the end in mind and conclude the following: the…

Promise me something today. Okay, you don’t have to promise. But do your best. Remember this: a better, wealthier, happier future with less human suffering is built by human beings trading in free markets, not governments or chairpersons of the…

First, a correction from last week on the total per capita cost of Brexit, according to Bloomberg economist Tyler Cowen. You’ll recall that Cowen said you could expect a 10% decline in British exports because of a weaker (long-term) pound…

Everyone who’s anyone (in the office) is talking about Chinese debt levels. It was all the rage, thanks to the most recent quarterly report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). And what a page turner it was! I jest….

A question to begin today’s letter: how do you turn an unpopular academic concept into an everyday legal reality for millions of people? Think of this question in the spirt Jack Ryan tackled a similar problem in The Hunt for…

Well it’s beginning to get embarrassing for the Brexit doom-mongers. The UK’s unemployment rate hit an 11-year low of 4.9% in July, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). There are 31.77 million Britons in the workforce. The workforce…

All hat and no cattle. That’s what Janet Yellen and her crew at the Fed are now. They’re all talk. No action. The evidence is in Monday’s rally in US stocks after Fed member Lael Brainard gave comments that only…

How hated is cash? Maybe you thought it was just the academics and the financial authoritarians that are trying to get rid of it. No. It’s investors too. There are some investors who hate cash so much they’re willing to…

Oh dear. It’s the proverbial Catch-22 for Mark Carney, Mario Draghi, Haruhiko Kuroda and Janet Yellen. Declare victory in the war on deflation and end QE too soon, and you get yourself a bond market crash. Keep fighting the bad…

The summer ceasefire in the markets is over. The war – against deflation, against savers and against cash – is hotting up again. But which monetary generals are fighting the last war? And which front line is about to collapse,…

Those G20 leaders in China better enjoy the champagne and caviar while they can. The next G20 meeting of world leaders isn’t until July of next year, in Hamburg. The world may be a very different place by then. You…

Well if this is the Brexit disaster the establishment predicted, bring on the sequel! Not to be too flippant, but the news just keeps getting worse if you expected Brexit to trigger an immediate catastrophe in Britain. That doesn’t mean…

You go away for one single week to the Scottish Highlands to get away from it all and what happens? A Harvard economist comes out guns blazing against cash and the drug dealing perverts who use it. Then the stockmarket…

Today’s letter is going to finish where Thursday’s left off: in the future. I’m going to show you how everything has come full circle. Manufacturing will come back to America and Europe. Robots will replace humans. And then the robots…

It began in Pittsburgh. And it wasn’t Google, Tesla, or Ford that did it. It was Uber. I’m talking about using your phone to summon a self-driving car. It’s always where this was headed. Electric car drones replacing black cabs…

The Industrial Revolution is complete. Dan Denning explains why we’re now on the cusp of a new, greater revolution – one driven by technology.

In today’s letter I want to show you how a QE-spawned deficit in defined benefit pensions could become a problem for all shareholders and savers – even if you don’t work for a FTSE 100 company with a defined benefit…

Dan Denning looks at two big British companies, and explains how just one number can tell you which is the better investment for your portfolio.

This just in: UK consumer price inflation in July was 0.6% according to figures out this morning from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Expectations were for 0.5%, according to Bloomberg. That prompted some breathless commentary on Twitter that a…

Things are getting complicated for UK stocks, says Dan Denning. And if you thought your retirement prospects were bad, spare a thought for the millennials.

Two quick items to kick off with today. First, gold had its best first half of the year since 1980, according to the World Gold Council. It was up 25% in US dollar terms. The WGC says investment demand from…

The definition of irony is when what you really mean is the opposite of what you say. So what do you call it when the effect caused by your actions is the opposite of what you intended. It’s not irony….

The Bank of England’s bond-buying programme has hit a snag: nobody’s selling. Dan Denning looks at what’s going on.

It’s been another light 24 hours for news from capital markets. There has been some news on the paltry (and vanishing) rate British savers can earn with banks. More on those vanishing rates and the possibility of another Bank of…

The muffled tongue of Big Ben tolled nine by the clock as the cortege left the palace, but on history’s clock it was sunset, and the sun of the old world was setting in a dying blaze of splendour never…

At last. Finally. Some good news about the future! The UK will have more charging stations for electric vehicles than petrol stations by 2020, according to Nissan. Yes, the company is probably talking its own book. But it’s probably right….

“You must be miserable,” a friend said to me earlier in the week. “Why would you say that?” I cheerfully asked. “Well, all you ever write about is bad things that could happen. Negative interest rates. The abolition of cash….

Here’s an honest question: do you think anyone at the Bank of England actually knows how to move interest rates? I’m talking about a cut in the bank rate from .50 basis points – or even a rise! According to…

If you prefer your Capital & Conflict as a video, you can watch a seven minute version of today’s letter here on YouTube or here on Facebook. I recorded a video today because it felt like one of those quietly…

The next crisis will be caused by government and central bank efforts to prevent it. The result will be the destruction of money as we know it, says Dan Denning.

More alarming news on two fronts today. First, there is movement on the Japanese front. Bonds have sold off and something big may be in the offing. Then, an intellectual defence for the “phasing out” of cash has been published…

In the last 24 hours we have come one giant leap closer to the monetary endgame. That endgame, as I’ve tried to convince you this week, includes an assault on your money, your retirement, and your savings. What happened in…

China’s Defence Ministry has announced joint naval exercises in September with the Russian Navy. I’ve been banging on about the money wars all week. But let’s not forget that armed conflict is the more traditional type of conflict. And in…

You will have a hard time believing me today. If you thought I was exaggerating that there’s a war coming – a war on your cash and a war on your savings – then now I offer you proof. It’s been…

RBS: 13th worst in the “adverse scenario” stress test Among the calamities of war may be justly numbered the diminution of the love of truth, by the falsehoods which interest dictates, and credulity encourages. Samuel Johnson, The Idler #30, November…

What the world needs now, is debt, sweet debt. Isn’t that how Dionne Warwick’s hit song, written by Burt Bacharach went? Ah, no! It was this: What the world needs now is love, sweet love / It’s the only thing…

Good news on the Brexit front. Britain’s economy hasn’t imploded. UK unemployment from March to May was actually down 54,000 compared to the previous quarter, according to data released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). A record…

Let’s leave the decline and fall of Western civilisation to the side for today. It will happen whether I have anything to say about it or not. Instead, I want you to focus on the iron ore price and inflation….

We begin the week with a failed (and perhaps staged) coup attempt in Turkey. A top Air Force general is in jail, 6,000 other judges and military personnel have been arrested and over 300 people are dead after the events…

I’ll deal with markets first, before getting into history and politics. I want to take you back to the point Jim Rickards made yesterday about the European Union being stronger without the UK. But I want to look at it in…

The global trend of preferring “safety” over “income” continues – this time in Germany. The Germans auctioned €5 billion worth of 10-year bonds with a zero coupon. That means you get no income while you own the bond. You just…

The S&P 500 made a new high in New York. It’s been 13 long months since the index made a new high. But it did so yesterday at 2,137. This seven year bull market may not be in rip-roaring health. But it’s…

Maybe Britain should have a national identity crisis more often. The FTSE 100 became the first big European index to enter into bull market territory when it closed at 6,682. It’s up 7% year-to-date but more than 20% from the…

The Bank of England is widely expected to cut its bank rate from its current level at 0.5%. The bank rate has been dormant at that level since March 5th, 2009. Earlier this year, hardly anyone would have expected that…

How much are you prepared to pay for safety? And is what you’re buying really safe? We’re about to find out the answer to both questions. A total of three British property funds have frozen redemptions. Interest rates on government…

The relief rally in UK stocks is over. Now, cracks are beginning to emerge in the actual banking and financial system. The stresses of Brexit are showing up on balance sheets and in monetary policy. The global debt bubble was…

If you fancy a video preview of the week ahead of stocks, bonds, and the pound, I put together one on Sunday afternoon. You can watch it here on YouTube. The short version is that Mark Carney from the Bank…

I keep trying to keep my eyes off the market so I can work on this new project. It’s usually the best thing to do in weeks like this. Stick to your plan. Manage your risk. Don’t panic. Ignore the…

Finally room to breathe. The pound shrugged off the S&P’s belated downgrade of the UK credit rating from AAA to AA and is up off its 31-year lows. Asian markets are in the green this morning. It’s not a massive…

Germany up. France up. Italy up. Hungary, Iceland and the Republic of Ireland on fire in the football. Everything’s coming up Europe today! Stockmarkets on the continent have not let last night’s thunderstorms in Britain dampen their spirits. The late…

History shows that the issuers of legal tender and banknotes have only one real play left when the public loses confidence in money. Once the public reckons that purchasing power is in rapid decline, they can’t get rid of paper…

Markets, of course, are simply mechanisms for measuring people’s emotions. And prior to yesterday afternoon’s murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, markets already looked extreme and stretched. Then they snapped. As an example, take the fact that the entire Swiss…

Calm down. Deep breaths. Let’s not get sucked into jawboning about politics. Remember, prices are signals. Markets are mechanisms for communicating prices. What do prices tell us about the odds of a Brexit this time next week? I’ll come back…

How scary is it getting out there? Fund managers increased their position in cash to the largest percentage since 2001, according to research published this week from Bank of America. There’s a lot of fear in the air. The subject…

Let’s take a step back from the abyss. Whether the financial world ends in fire or ice, it still ends. Let’s admire the view from the edge of the abyss. Better yet, let’s ponder the latest note from Goldman Sachs…

The problem British savers now confront is unprecedented. Yields on ten-year gilts have never been this low. Ever. In all the history of British bonds. The ten-year gilt yield fell to 1.263% during trading yesterday, according to Tradeweb. Also on…

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? William Butler Yeats, The Second Coming That is the sound of alarm bells ringing inside my face. The warning signs come from the bond…

Soaring prices. Food and water shortages. Long lines. Police in riot gear. The breakdown of normal economic life and the complete loss of trust in politics. Welcome to Venezuela. Have you heard much about the country’s woes? My guess is:…

There are now more than $10 trillion worth of negative yielding government bonds in the world. More astounding still, there are over $380 billion worth of negative yielding corporate bonds! Imagine that. Paying to lend your money to a for-profit…

Tell me truly: is it possible that Brexit is bad for the City but good for Britain? No one’s really asked this question yet, at least not directly. As someone who’s in the financial services industry, at least nominally, it’s…

Labour’s deputy leader Tom Watson wants Prime Minister David Cameron to ban hedge funds from running exit polls on 23 June. It’s not because he’s worried they’ll influence the vote. That’s happened in the US before, where exit polls in…

A strange story from Greece. You’ll be required to use credit or debit cards for transactions larger than €500 in order to qualify for certain tax exemptions, according to a new Greek law scheduled to take effect on 1 July. I…

Last week I showed you that if you took all the UK government liabilities – central and local government, plus pensions and the banks – that the figure was bigger than just the official debt-to-GDP number. Well the government published its…

It’s not quite going nuclear. But chancellor George Osborne has played the “pensions” card in the Brexit debate. He’s said that younger individuals would be “between £223 and £335 a year worse off in retirement.” That’s if you’ve got £20,000…

It’s been a week for feeding the brain here at Friars Bridge Court. Most of the editors have interest rates on the mind. Charlie Morris, Fleet Street Letter’s Investment Director, reckons US rates are headed up on labour market strength…

What happens to a middle class that’s squeezed by stagnant wage growth, high house prices and a growing tax burden (not to mention pressure on wages from immigration labour)? It has the potential to become politically radicalised. Ask Austria. This…

A reader asked an important question this week about the long-term “death cross” formation on the S&P 500. So what? The death cross is on the S&P 500. That’s America. This is Britain. What about the FTSE 100? Fair point….

What happens when trade barriers and walls go up? What happens when people decide that the free movement of capital, labour, goods and services is no longer improving the world? The social mood changes. And when the social mood changes,…

It will cost you and your family £220 to leave the European Union, according to figures released today by HM Treasury. The expected cost increase is based on a projected 12% decline in sterling over two years (after Brexit), and…

This article is probably going to polarise opinion. You’re going to either accuse me of being a “debt fetishist” and “doom monger”. Or you’re going to agree that since 2008, the world’s financial system has become even more burdened by debt…

Now it’s getting interesting. And no, I’m not talking about the Brexit debate. I’ll get to that in a second. I’m talking about what gold is whispering in your ear. Gold ETF holdings rose by 63.2 tonnes in the last…

Mark Carney hasn’t done a lick of work since becoming governor of the Bank of England (BoE) in 2013. He’s got an eight year term. He says he’ll step down after five. But the bank rate set by the BoE’s…

There are $9 trillion worth of government bonds with negative yields on this planet of ours. In Japan, all debt with a maturity of 15 years or less currently has a negative yield. Investors chasing a measly yield of 0.39%…

Lower growth and higher inflation. Or liberation from a “mosquito infested swamp and the greatest economy in the world.” You couldn’t get a bigger contrast of possibilities. But that’s how the public debate on Brexit is shaping up. Which side…

That pause you hear in the war on cash? That’s your enemy reloading with the next volley. Swiss bank UBS has warned its private clients that it may cost them to hold cash with the bank. That is not a…

It’s the US dollar’s world, and we’re all just living in it. That was, I think, the conclusion of a speech given on the global currency market by Claudio Borio at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). I’ve never met…

The civil war on the Tory party heated up this weekend. The leadership is doubling down on its anti-Brexit rhetoric. Chancellor George Osborne took to the airwaves and said it would “be catastrophic for people’s jobs and their incomes and…

“Inflate or die,” the great Richard Russell used to say. He meant that central banks committed to “fighting deflation” and confronted with massive debts in the economy had but one choice: crank up the press. Fund manager Bill Gross agrees…

It’s on. Oh boy is it ever on. You’re finally going to find out how deep resentment against the financial status quo runs. With Ohio governor John Kasich vanquished from the field, Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for…