Boaz Shoshan

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom VAUXHALL, LONDON – Well dear reader, we had a good run. But today marks the end of the line for Capital & Conflict. From here on out, this newsletter…

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom HYDE PARK, LONDON – I have some bad news. Actually, it’s not that bad. It’s just a change. But it is something you should be aware of as a…

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past 25 years, investors have bought – on average – $115 million worth of stocks around the world every trading day. That comes to roughly $29 billion entering the stock market every year.

The US joins the Soviet Union, the British Empire, and a long list of ancient powers that were bested by this unforgiving country at the centre of the world. Is the sun now setting on America’s superpower status, just as it was for the Soviet Union?

I hope this letter finds you in good health, and having a great Sunday. I don’t normally write to you on weekends, but felt I had to make an exception today. For today is a very special occasion – a 50-year anniversary, no less. And if you enjoy my scribblings to you at all, I reckon you won’t want to let it go unobserved.

Last week, I asked you if you were feeling bullish or bearish on bitcoin. It’s not the first time I’ve asked the readership of Capital & Conflict such a question, but with the market evolving so fast it’s worth keeping our intel fresh.

But before we get to that, there’s a different question I’d like to ask you. This is the very question myself and Charlie Morris have been pondering for our latest issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert, going out tomorrow, and I’d love to know what you think.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – We must end the week on a sombre note. For tomorrow is a grave day indeed…

It was in 1740 when the Royal Navy first formalised a daily rum ration for sailors aboard Her Majesty’s ships – what would become fondly known as “the tot”.

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Watch the live stream this Friday We’ll be streaming our latest episode of Southbank Live on Friday at 10am here on YouTube – my guest this week is our…

While I’m sure Her Majesty’s fine crew at the “Doughnut” in Cheltenham can trace my movements with ease, there’s something uniquely dystopian about willingly installing government surveillance tech on to one’s own electronics for “the greater good”, so I never installed the Test & Trace app.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Following our look at bitcoin last week, I thought I should show you this small roundtable recorded over at Fortune & Freedom on Friday – featuring Nigel Farage, Nickolai Hubble and our tech expert Sam Volkering.

As I said yesterday, from the amount of bearishness I’ve seen from market commentators in recent weeks, I’m feeling pretty bullish. But one must never fall prey to wishful thinking – and as I’m a BTC holder, I of course want the market to be strong.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past few weeks I’ve seen several veterans of the crypto space utter a similar refrain. Something to the tune of “We had a good run folks – I’ll see you in four years’ time.”

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – What is it about the subject of finance that lends itself so much to squid metaphors?

In 2010, Rolling Stone famously described Goldman Sachs as “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

I hope you’ve been getting some decent weather, wherever you happen to be reading this. Sure is toasty out here – but as Nickolai Hubble will tell you, the temperature is rising even further in inflation statistics…

“Freedom In Name Only”, or FRINO, was the topic of our latest Fortune & Freedom podcast with Nickolai Hubble and Nigel Farage – while you’re celebrating our state-sanctioned “freedom”, I encourage you to give it a listen.

PICCADILLY, MANCHESTER – Gold holds the crown as the metal which feeds on social unrest and distrust in authority. But I suspect it shall be its elder sister platinum which will soar if the chaos unfolding in South Africa persists…

THE HOWFF, DUNDEE – Political agendas favouring renewable energy (such as the “Green New Deal” which we see touted in the States) are, like all political agendas, polarising issues. There was a time when investors could remain “above the fray”…

THE GEORGE ORWELL, DUNDEE – In our first episode of Southbank Live, gold expert John Butler explained how the new banking rules known as Basel III could lead to deep structural changes in the gold market. You can watch it…

GALLERY 48, DUNDEE – “History might be rhyming, but there are a lot of different songs being played at the same time” says Nickolai Hubble of the current investing environment. When looking forward into the 2020s, we wonder what market…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A few months ago in The Ultimate Philanthrope a reader suggested that Satoshi Nakamoto, the mystery man behind the creation of bitcoin, might be a modern-day Thomas Guy. Guy, a bookseller in the 1700s, made a fortune…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Do you remember what happens after a housing bubble bursts? That’s what my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble would like to ask you in today’s letter – for it seems many have forgotten. But before we…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A quick note before we begin today. I’ll be hosting an online event tomorrow with a very special guest. He’s an American CEO with quite the investment tale to tell, and if you’re interested in streamlining your…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Named “Fundee” by some, and “Scumdee” by others, the bonny city of Dundee has a polarising nature. I used to come here quite often when I was younger to visit friends who were studying at the universities…

HOLBURN, ABERDEEN – Felix Rohatyn was quite a character. He possessed what he called a “refugee’s sense of value”, which he picked up while on the run from the Nazis. When France was invaded in 1940, his family fled from…

BROOMHILL, ABERDEEN – Back at the helm of Capital & Conflict once more – with something special to share as well. I hope you’ve been enjoying the market musings of Andrew Hutchings and Will Dahl in my absence – I’ve…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH ­– My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble is no stranger to controversy. Truth be told, he likes to stir it quite a bit. This note he penned for Fortune & Freedom (click here to subscribe) is…

THE BALMORAL, EDINBURGH – If you’d only been observing the revelry on the streets over the weekend (both day and night), you’d have thought Scotland had defeated England with extreme prejudice at the match on Friday. Still, a good result…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – I’d been putting it off for so long… Looked steadily more ridiculous as the months have gone by… And been called a “pirate” (amongst other things) as a result… But it was finally time to get…

“A lethal dose to anyone within ten yards. Get it while it’s hot!” – Edge of Darkness (1985) NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Do I count any nuclear bulls amongst the readership? Anyone stacking uranium rods at home, or stuffing them…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Edinburgh, like so many cities, looks its best in the sun. When the rays hit it just right, the sandstone skyline shines like gold. And shine it has over the past few days – we’ve had…

THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble isn’t one for political correctness. As I like to say, he won’t screw a silencer on his speech. This might preclude him from various other professions and speaking opportunities,…

THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – There’s been a bit of drama here at Southbank Investment Research of late. It’s about our Beyond Oil Summit which goes live on Wednesday (get access here if you haven’t signed up yet). The subject of…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Our very first Beyond Oil Summit feels like a different epoch… but it was only last year. Our plans for the event, featuring first-class energy experts on the future of black gold, began at the very beginning…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Well, the results are in from Monday’s poll… And I must say, I’m a little surprised: A lot of oil bulls out there – nearly three quarters of respondents. And there I was thinking I had a…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – They called them the Seven Sisters. Seven companies which ruled the world. It all began in August 1928, at a castle called Achnacarry. It’s in the Highlands, near Ben Nevis – about half an hour’s drive from…

“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts obligingly up into the air and falls back…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – I have some bad news, dear reader: the Aussies have us beat. I’m not talking about the cricket. I can accept the weaponised autism of Steve Smith being a challenge (especially when sandpaper is involved). But when…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – What’s the best way of protecting yourself against inflation? Ask a group of investors, and you’ll get as many answers. Real estate, agriculture, woodland, gold, oil… many investors have a favourite “hard asset” up their sleeve…

THE STANDING ORDER, EDINBURGH – It almost feels like things are getting back to normal here. Almost. The streets are thronging with folk. Not so many as pre-WuFlu, but it’s damn busy nonetheless. There are enough tourists on the Royal…

What follows is the third instalment of Nickolai Hubble’s Inflatuation series. In case you missed them, click here to read part I and part II. The real inflation hasn’t even started By Nickolai Hubble for Fortune & Freedom Welcome to…

What follows is the second instalment of Nickolai Hubble’s Inflatuation series. To read part I, click here. How inflation gets out of control By Nickolai Hubble for Fortune & Freedom Friday’s examination of inflation explained how I saw inflation coming…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Friday at last. A bank holiday weekend beckons… In the next few instalments of Capital & Conflict, I’d like to share a trilogy of works by my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble. Long-time readers know…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – “My candle burns at both ends; It will not last the night; But ah, my foes, and oh, my friends— It gives a lovely light!”  Edna St Vincent Millay Apparently that was Roald Dahl’s motto. I…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – “Is this a big problem for us?” asks a reader. They point to a topic discussed during our recent Gold Summit: In your [Gold] Summit discussion with Eoin [Treacy], you predicted a substantial fall in the…

THE HANGING BAT, EDINBURGH – At long last, I’m back in my favourite pub. Edinburgh is pleasingly lively – not so beaten down by the lockdowns as I’d feared. It’s been a couple years since I’ve been back here, and…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – In yesterday’s note, a reader made the case against gold. Or more specifically, against investing in gold miners over the long term. While it may feel like inflation is here to stay, they argued, it will not…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – On Monday I asked you if I’d made a grave error in dumping my company pension pot into the gold mining sector. If you’ve been reading this letter for even a short time, you’ll know I’m very…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Boaz, I don’t believe you, you’re not that stupid, it’s bullsh*t.” Would you mind telling me how you really feel, please? I must say, I’ve had a great time reading the responses to Monday’s note (see: Have…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Remember when I said earlier in the year that – contrary to popular belief – it was inflation that was the big risk to the bitcoin rally? (See: The big risk to ₿itcoin – 8 January) Well,…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Back in Staffs – right on time for the pubs to start letting people inside again. I’ll see you at the pub later. In light of our 2021 Gold Summit, I think it’ll have to be a…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – How much inflation can you tolerate? What percentage of your savings are you willing to watch burn every year, “for the good of the economy?” 0%? 1%? 5%? Perhaps I shouldn’t be asking. After all, that…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Think you’d ever spend some of these? They’re called “Goldbacks”. That’s 24 carat gold, rolled thin as paper, and then insulated with even thinner layers of plastic. That’s the highest denomination Goldback there is: the 50….

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Right on cue as our 2021 Gold Summit heats up (don’t miss today’s Keynote Address), Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter Wealth Builder has recently turned even more bullish on the metal. He already…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – How much gold is too much? This is probably the wrong question to be asking in the current climate. If anything, your average investor should be asking themselves, how much gold is too little? I don’t…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Get gold,” urged Spanish King Ferdinand II of his ambitious explorers in 1511, “humanely if possible, but at all hazards – get gold.” They took the “getting gold” bit to heart. As for “humanely”, well… that…

Before we get on with today’s letter, a quick heads up – if you haven’t signed up yet to our 2021 Gold Summit, you should do so here. I’ve been working on it for several months now in preparation for…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Can you guess what asset I’ve charted here? I’ll give you a clue – it’s a commodity. A hard, shiny one. It’s not gold, which we’ll come to in a minute. It’s one of gold’s siblings….

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Two years ago, we took a step into the unknown as a business with the launch of our 2019 Gold Summit. We hadn’t tried the format before, and we were unsure if it would be to…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – If you own gold, it’s quite likely that you expect the banknotes in your wallet or purse to lose their value in the years to come. That’s certainly one of the reasons I own it –…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – A dear reader writes in to complain… we’re stuck in a rut he says, and we need out: All of you at Southbank are going on & on about just one thing … Bitcoin, yet not…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Perhaps gold is cheap, just as it was in 1970 and 2000. I believe that this is the case.” … and so do I. That was Charlie Morris there in a recent update of The Fleet…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “We haven’t seen anything like this in the last five to ten years,” an American bullion dealer tells me over the phone. “But we’re still not seeing anywhere near the level of interest there was in…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – You exit your tent on the sound of war trumpets. The encampment is awash with panic. The enemy have been spotted advancing over the horizon – and they’re swarming towards your position. As commander of the…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Is this a nightmare?” asks a dear reader… I’ve received some wild responses to my recent letters. Some read like a fever dream: Bitcoin is (in my opinion) an Illusion, caused by drinking too much alcohol…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – We have now entered the final phase of the most important market cycle there is, writes our colleague Akhil Patel. The land cycle has crossed its final hurdle, passed its last stopping post (the “mid-cycle slowdown”),…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – I’ve finally figured it out. After years of struggle… endless debates, fights, and bickering… from rootless speculation to ludicrous allegation, in a seemingly bottomless pit of conjecture… I know who Satoshi Nakamoto is. The pseudonymous creator…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – I gave this away as a gift recently. It’s a remarkable little piece of kit. No ordinary USB stick, this orange flash drive is a miniature treasure chest – with virtually no limit on capacity. You…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – It’ll be a short note from me today. I’m adding the final touches to a project I’ve been working on behind the scenes for a while. I’ll be able to show you what’s been going on later…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – Last Friday in Dou₿le Trou₿le I showed you a note from my colleague Charlie Morris, where he illustrated just how extraordinary the phenomenon of bitcoin continually doubling in value is. He’d written that note at the beginning…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – The doors to a speculator’s paradise have been thrown wide open. Rolling golden fields stretch into the distance. And those that dare explore this land seeking riches, risk ruin in equal measure… Yes, dear reader: it’s alt-season….

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – There’s a chart I’d like to show you today. Just one. It’s the reason I don’t feel I can be bearish about bitcoin right now, despite all the hype… But first, some context. Remember The Big Suck…

God damn them all, I was told we’d cruise the seas for American gold, We’d fire no guns, Shed no tears… Now I’m a broken man on a Halifax pier, The last of Barrett’s Privateers… –  Barrett’s Privateers (unofficial anthem…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – How many times do you reckon the price of bitcoin has doubled over the years? Bear in mind, bitcoin only began being traded for currency (and not for favours like pizza deliveries) in 2010. And where exactly…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – I told you you’d need to act fast… That entire batch of ₿lockhead amber ale sold out in 12 hours. My hopes that there might be some extra left for me to buy in a fortnight have…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – This can’t be normal, surely. Surely. Is it really time to buy bitcoin when there are adverts telling you to buy it on the London Underground? Conventional investing wisdom would suggest the opposite. Ads for speculative investment…

Available now – while stocks last! SOUTHWARK, LONDON – Well, here I am, back in the capital, for a little while at least. How long I’ll stay, I’m not sure just yet. I’m in town to do some work on…

SOMEWHERE ON THE ABERDEEN-LONDON LINE – I hope you had a good Easter. With the Ides of March now over and the re-opening now imminent (hopefully), we wonder what delights await investors in the second quarter of 2021. A couple…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Which of the major central bankers would come out on top in a bar brawl is a heavily under-discussed topic amongst investors. The top contender – by my humble estimation at least – used to be burly…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Who would you trust more? A bond investor telling you they feel something is off… or a stock investor telling you everything is hunky-dory? You’ll often hear it said that “bond guys are smarter that stock guys”…

Available 6 April at Cheddar Ales ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – One of the primary perks of being editor of this letter is being able to engage with the readership. As you can probably tell if you read Capital & Conflict often,…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The energy sector has been a hotbed of market unrest over the past year: a constantly evolving, volatile warzone enriching and ruining investors in equal measure. Last April negative oil prices busted on to the scene for…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The beached whale ain’t budging. The Ever Given remains stubbornly lodged in the middle of the Suez Canal. And the traffic jam is now close to some 240 vessels long… And that’s just in the jam itself….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – We examined the spectacle of the Ever Given yesterday, the 200,000 tonne container vessel blocking the Suez Canal. As of this morning, it remains wedged in place, creating a traffic jam in global trade 150 vessels long…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If your travel today involves the Suez Canal, there will be a slight detour around Africa…” Source: Twitter Talk about a spot of bad parking. As of this morning, the 200,000 tonne Ever Given (which some believe…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’m afraid it’ll be another short note from me today – I’ve been called away to conduct an interview with a certain globe-trotting market expert as part of a broader event we’re planning for you. This video…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A short note from me today -there’s a project I’m working on behind the scenes that demands much of my attention. We’re keeping it under wraps at the moment, but I’m looking forward to sharing it with…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Let’s have a little rummage through the postbox as we end for the week… I received many responses to Red Collapso last week. As bitcoin rises in value, the question of how governments will respond to it…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – During the period running from Sunday to Tuesday, over a billion dollars were lost in an event which keeps recurring. It’s almost like clockwork. That’s the third time this year this has happened by my count, and…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Happy St Patrick’s day! While I’d love to join you with a Guinness (Lord knows I’ve drank enough of them in recent days), I’m afraid I’ll be staying dry tonight. My beer fast for Lent has finally…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I told you about my bullish view on oil last week – I think we’re due $100 a barrel this year. Further to that note, there’s a snippet of research from Charlie Morris over at The Fleet…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – As the week draws to a close, I thought we should finish it off with a chart. And not just any old chart either – this has recently become my favourite chart of the gold price. I…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “My Son-in-law has just bought ‘A Dummies guide to Bitcoin’” writes a reader. “I didn’t say anything, but headed towards the drinks cabinet for a large glass of ‘Red Collapso’”… Bitcoin ain’t for everyone, that’s for sure….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I took a wander downtown the other evening. I needed some fresh air, and I was curious to see how the high street is looking like these days. We’re all pretty used to the sight of desolate…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – You won’t come across something like this every day. Of that, I’m almost certain. Here at Southbank Investment Research, the editorial team like to do a lot of reading – especially on fringe financial subjects which may…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Last week, I asked you if you think the bitcoin price has peaked, or if the bull market still has more juice in the tank (Power Games – 4 March). Is it all downhill from here, or…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I feel like I’ve opened a Pandora’s box. When I asked the readership for a suitable collective noun for gold sovereigns, I didn’t expect such a sustained response. Even after Tuesday’s note where I settled on “splendour”,…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’m keenly aware that I’ve been bumbling on about bitcoin very frequently in this letter, monopolising our conversation and without giving you a moment to speak on the subject. I want to know your views. Even if…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. To my eyes, it can only go one of two ways – we’re on the cusp of either a parabolic blow-off top, or a bear market back to the likes…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s somewhat fitting that as we approach “The Ides of March”, a deadline in the Roman calendar for the repayment of debts, that debt is beginning to matter for markets. A little while ago in Rumblings of…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s coming up to a year now since the WuFlu “metal famine”, when it became nearly impossible to obtain gold or silver from bullion dealers. Remarkably, the situation today feels very similar… Last March, the supply chain…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s going to be a long Lent this year. To make lockdown more interesting, I decided to give up food. I’ve long been enthralled by the story of Bavarian monks in the 1600s who stopped eating during…

In light of bitcoin passing the incredible milestone of $50k per BTC, it’s time to rally the troops and reassess our position. Where do we go from here? Is this the top of the latest crypto-boom, or are we only…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Another old schoolmate contacted me out of the blue the other day to ask me if he should buy bitcoin. And now even Peter Schiff, notorious for his hatred of bitcoin, is talking about $100k BTC prices:…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Any ideas what this is? It’s a pretty straightforward chart, that’s for sure: I know plenty amongst the Capital & Conflict readership like their metals, so I suspect that chart may be familiar to some of you….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A month ago, I told you how a buddy of mine was getting into bitcoin, and how I feared this might be a classic sign of a market top (What should Nixon have done in 1971? –…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The year was 1862. Lewis Carroll was writing Alice in Wonderland in Oxford… America was alight, burning with a Civil War… … and the French were getting close to pasteurising milk. The Oil Age was in its…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well I must say, the timing of my note on Monday (Party at the frontier) wasn’t the best. My prediction that we were about to experience an alt-season, where bitcoin will take a step back and other…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – We’ve had a fair bit of snowfall over the last few days. It’s nothing extreme – it’s not piling up high on the pavement – but it is damn chilly, and enough to remind everybody that we…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If I told you, I’d have to kill you,” he said gravely, wine glass in hand. It was the summer of 2017. I was in the Royal Automobile Club on Pall Mall, where Charlie Morris had just…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I was given a set of lockpicks for my birthday a few years ago. I’d always wanted a set when I was a kid after reading one too many adventure novels, and a relative of mine thought…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Who is it that’s been pushing the price of silver around over the past week? They’re hooded for sure… but is it really Robin, the Prince of Thieves? Or does another, more mysterious individual stand under the…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – In yesterday’s note, I published a few responses I’ve received from the readership on the curious case of Tesla. Broadly speaking, most of the letters I received took a negative view on the company – or at…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is it just me, or was that an incredibly long January? Hogmanay feels forever ago (though I’m sure it feels even longer than that for those who braved Dry January). A month can be an awfully long…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – They’re calling it “The Capital Riot”. Over the pond, millennial militias are on the prowl. It’s patriotism run amok. They’re hunting down, brutalising and bankrupting all those suspected of committing the most anti-American activity of them all……

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A reader writes in: I read your posts and you are often on the mark – thank you! I wonder if you have written about Tesla. To me this appears to be the greatest bubble of them…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “One of the greatest risks in investing is crowding. Where there is hype, there is danger. That’s not just for bitcoin, but true for financial markets. Turn that idea on its head, and the contrarian starts hunting…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Anybody bought a new car recently? I don’t know anybody who’s used the lockdowns as an auto-shopping opportunity, but there’s gotta be some out there… I was struck by a statistic published recently that car sales fell…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Earlier this week, somebody decided to inscribe the bitcoin blockchain with a bible verse. “Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good – Romans 12:21” is embedded within a transaction on block 666,666, presumably…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “I make the biggest efforts possible to not support the Chinese economy in any way. Supporting the economy is supporting the CCP. It’s crazy more people in the world are not standing up against this.” So says…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “Could this possibly be true?” a reader asks. It’s quite a question. They’re effectively asking if the price of one bitcoin could rise to $4.38 million. I must say, that is quite the price forecast. Bitcoin gets…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – 13 rounds in the magazine, plus one in the chamber. You could fire this thing 14 times without needing to reload. Only problem is, there’s a shortage of bullets due to a sudden surge in demand… A…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Ever since last March, I’ve grown increasingly bullish on a certain investment. Now to be clear, I have adored this asset for a long time – you might call me something of a collector. But I believe…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is our interest in shiny bits of metal and magical internet money leaving our flank open to a major currency move? This reader thinks we might be blindsided: … everyone is predicting the Fed to carry on…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – One of my personal contrarian indicators has begun to flash a warning… but can it be trusted? If you’ve been reading my scribblings for a while, you may well know the story about an old schoolfriend of…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Finally, a nice strong pullback in the bitcoin price. Thousand-dollar increases in price every day are great fun, but unsustainable – this weekend’s drop down to $34k is cause for relief. I mentioned last week how the…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Thirty-seven thousand dollars per bitcoin? Twenty-seven thousand pounds apiece? Why not. Why not? Watching bitcoin is like watching an art auction these days. The price just keeps going up, interrupted only by nervous pauses… and an ever-growing…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So why is it that the bitcoin price only seems to go up at night? Why does it only rise between 10pm and 8am, like some kind of vampire? As we illustrated in yesterday’s note, the overwhelming…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is bitcoin becoming a household name once again? While the subject of bitcoin will be familiar to both initiates and veterans of Capital & Conflict, something I noted frequently in this letter, both in 2019 and 2020,…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So here we are, at the dawn of 2021 AD. I hope you had a good Hogmanay – nothing too eventful for me this year due to lockdown restrictions, but I enjoyed it nonetheless. If you’re doing…

I hope you’ve been enjoying some of our festive content while our office is shut for the holidays. Rest assured, normal service shall resume in January – but for today, I’d just like to wish you a very happy Hogmanay….

I hope this email finds you enjoying the festivities in good health. I won’t distract you long ­– just a quick note from me to wish you a very Merry Christmas. This year has been eventful to say the least,…

I was lucky to escape the second “official” lockdown with my little escapade to Stockholm. But I’m not sure how long I’ll be staying in the UK, so long as the lockdowns persist. I’ve a mind to seek my fortune…

Something a little different in today’s note. Today’s Capital & Conflict is a postcard of sorts, from our company’s founding father – Bill Bonner – living out on his ranch in Argentina. Many of you will be familiar with Bill’s…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If you thought 2020 was bad, wait until it turns 21 and starts drinking” – some American Christmas ain’t far… Hogmanay ain’t far… as we reach the end of the week, it’s becoming suddenly very apparent that…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well there goes the Quantitative Ease Double IPA! I told you you’d need to act fast yesterday – by the evening it was all sold out. To those who managed to snatch a few bottles, I hope…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The small microphone that loops around his ear is hovering before his mouth like a fluffy ball of cotton. With a nod from the video crew, he takes to the stage. “Hello everyone. Thank you for all…

Available Now! ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Home once more. Following an uneventful return trip from Sweden, I’m back at the helm of Capital & Conflict. I hope Nathan Tipping and Will Dahl have been keeping you entertained in my absence –…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As I went for a walk yesterday evening, I heard warm notes of music drift through the chilly air. I wandered towards the cheery sound, and discovered a brass band had gathered to play outside the supermarket…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – A short note from me today, I’m just about to go live with our quarterly conference call for subscribers to The Price Report with Tim Price. Tim has always been an outspoken character – but I’ve never…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Happy hump day! A quick note before we begin: further to yesterday’s note, I want to know what your predictions are for 2021 – investment related, but not necessarily stock specific. Let me know here, and I’ll…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As 2020 winds to a close, it’s beginning to give me déjà vu. Everything has begun to feel 2017 all over again. Remember that year? Back when “Article 50” was plastered all over the press instead of…

HALF WAY INN, STOCKHOLM – Almost December, huh? This year has flown by faster for me than any other I can remember. Perhaps it’s a good thing that 2020 is “getting itself over with” so we can crack on with…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Of all the gold coins I’ve got, this one’s my favourite: Source: BullionStar Of all the designs the Royal Mint has stamped on gold and silver Britannias, it’s yet to surpass this one from 2003 in my…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – The last time the Nikkei was this high, I hadn’t been born yet. Source: Fuller Treacy Money We’re a way off that ‘89 all-time high… but if the market has taught us anything this year, it’s that…

THE ARDBEG EMBASSY, STOCKHOLM – Turns out the Swedes aren’t half bad at distilling whisky. What they are bad at is charging an affordable price for it. Though perhaps I shouldn’t blame the Swedes. This establishment is after all owned…

ESPRESSO HOUSE, STOCKHOLM – A new week beckons: let’s start it off with the results… Looks like most of you think bitcoin does have at least some value – though there’s a significant minority who think it doesn’t. Fascinatingly, the…

SOUTHSIDE PUB, STOCKHOLM – Ahoy from a faraway watering hole. They serve Guinness here and there’s a vending machine for Camel cigarettes, so it’s about as close to paradise as a man can get. It’s sleeting outside but nice and…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – It’s all so damned… banal. Source: The Telegraph Our monetary oracle has spoken. Behold his wisdom. From The Telegraph: A widely used digital currency could pave the way for negative interest rates by making it harder to…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – I told you this’d be coming yesterday… I’ve been banging on about bitcoin for a fair while now, but I want to know your thoughts on the matter. I was wondering how specific I should be with…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Following on from yesterday’s rather alarming chart, I thought I’d continue today with another one, this time courtesy of Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter Wealth Builder. Source: Bloomberg What you’re looking at there is…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Let’s start the week off with an alarming chart to get the juices flowing, shall we? This one certainly makes me nervous: Source: Google Trends That’s global Google search popularity for a certain word (indexed, so most…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – There’s not even a flicker of hesitation in their eyes. Unflinching, unconscious of the awkward guarded manoeuvres now practiced in blighty… the Swedes squeeze past you on a supermarket shopping aisle. It’s strange how something that was…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – “So Pfizer waits until two days after a disputed election is “called” for Biden and six days after the election itself to release details [of a vaccine] they’ve probably had for weeks? Well, nothing to see here…”…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – “Greatness from small beginnings” – or more literally – “Great things, from small things” was the motto of Sir Francis Drake. Emblazoned on the coat of arms he was granted by Elizabeth I, sic parvis magna was…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Not a mask in sight. The pubs and restaurants are busy – often full. But the teetotaller lobby in government has a monopoly on the sale of all booze above 3.5% ABV, and taxes it to high…

TERMINAL 1, MANCHESTER AIRPORT – Remember, remember, the fifth of November… or don’t. Her Majesty’s government certainly seems to be having trouble with it. It’s ironic that tomorrow’s lockdown across England kicks off on Guy Fawkes Day. Especially now that…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Prior to his presidency, way back in 2015, Donald Trump tweeted – amongst many other things – that it is “often to your advantage to be underestimated”. (Not “misunderestimated” of course – you’d have to ask George…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “A Tory MP, a Labour MP and an SNP MP go into a pub. And shut it down.” – Tim Price Once more into the pubs dear friends, once more. They need the business, the…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Donald Trump has desecrated the values that make America a beacon to the world. Joe Biden is a good man who would restore steadiness and civility to the White House. If The Economist had a vote, it…

THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – Got a new paperweight in the mail the other day. Makes for a decent coaster, too. In theory, I could deposit this giant coin at a bank, and see a mighty +£10 be credited to…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – A nice chart to start us off with today. While it’s no surprise where investors have placed their money in the stockmarket this year, the sheer degree to which they have shunned everything except tech stocks is…

Some of you may remember today’s letter, which I first wrote back in April. I’m re-publishing it today as I’m currently working on a related little side project which needs a bit more polish. While April feels like an awfully…

We continue with the second half of our short report on the return of inflation. If you haven’t read part I yet, you can find it on the website here. Tomorrow, you’ll be hearing from a new member of the…

I’ll be away from Capital & Conflict for the next few of days – I’m currently working on an exciting side project behind the scenes that needs a bit more polish before I can share it with you. I’ll be…

THE ARTISAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Children have one kind of silliness, as you know, and grown-ups have another kind” – C.S. Lewis May I present, dear reader, the other kind: Italian government borrowing costs back below zero, and heading lower In…

THE ARTISAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – Almost a fifth of all the US dollars in existence were created this year. Quite an achievement, that. Considering the world’s dependency on greenbacks to do business – using pictures of Benjamin Franklin to do all…

THE NAVIGATION INN, STAFFORDSHIRE – “No interest? No problem!” So cry investors as the Italian government beats them bloody with a brand new stick: the zero-coupon bond. While it’s the first time the Italian government has been able to get…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Stuff it under your mattress and you’ll make more interest” bellows a voice from across the pub. The suggestion is addressed to a gentleman seated on the opposite side of the room who’s been trying…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Sunshine, on my shoulders, makes me happy…” I doubt John Denver would be very chuffed were he living in the UK these days (or ever), given our weather. But the great musician’s music is likely…

THE HYDRO, DERBYSHIRE – Well the cat’s out of the bag now… If you haven’t seen yesterday’s announcement yet, I suggest you do so now.  That marks one of the largest events in the history of this company – certainly…

53 DEGREES NORTH, DERBYSHIRE – “I should tell you to leave Sir. But tonight, I’d like you to keep on drinking.” Sadly, this is not something I’ve been told by any barmen on my ongoing voyage through English pubs. It…

BUXTON BREWERY CELLAR, DERBYSHIRE – Is this chart a fifth full, or a fifth empty? Look there, on the bottom right – is this cause for optimism, or pessimism? Source: The Market Ear The city that never sleeps is looking…

THE PALACE HOTEL, DERBYSHIRE – “Don’t ever remember three straight days of torrential rain – the canal is an inch from bursting its banks.” I like a bit of rain (you learn to in Aberdeen), so I’ve been quite enjoying…

THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Whenever I tweet, some call it a tirade. Totally dishonest!” – Donald Trump, 11 November 2012 (punctuation adjusted) To some, it is a tirade. To others it is a lullaby, a constant reassurance that a…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – Let’s start October and the sunset of the year with something optimistic, shall we? I have good news. Nay, that’s too mild – I have reason to rejoice, true cause for celebration… You see, I’ve…

THE STAR, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It’s always fun throwing bombs into lakes.” Tim Price is a friend to furore. He made that quip after we finished a conference call for his readers at The Price Report yesterday, and I was commending…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – I can’t promise that you’ll agree with everything you’re about to read. Especially if yesterday’s poll is to be trusted. But we wouldn’t be doing our job if we weren’t challenging your views on investing,…

THE RUTLAND ARMS, DERBYSHIRE – “I feel like Adam” reads a message from a friend. “I live in the garden of Eden, but I cannot partake of the fruits…” The fella in question is a university student in Edinburgh –…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Something very important, and indeed society changing, may come out of the Ebola epidemic that will be a very good thing: NO SHAKING HANDS!” – Donald Trump, 4 October 2014 He was ahead of his…

THE JUNCTION INN, STAFFORDSHIRE – Once more into the pub dear friends, once more! While we still can… I’m glad I’m not in London at the moment as the new anti-WuFlu measures come into force. Or Scotland for that matter,…

THE ECCLIAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – A hot air balloon hangs above the horizon like a dreamcatcher for the county. And the last squeezes of sunshine the season has to offer linger warm in the air. It’s a fine day indeed. And…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “[MI6] told me about honey-traps and warned me that the Chinese secret service often use women to entice men to bed to get information. I didn’t think for one minute that I would fall for…

THE BELL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It all sounds a bit like the man who jumped off the top of a skyscraper and said as he passed each floor on the way down ~ ‘So far, so good’…” A reader responds to…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Are they going to the Bermuda Triangle?” “Bitchcraft”, a (presumably) pseudonymous Twitter user in Brazil, asks a fair question. With a chart like this, you have to wonder exactly where Singapore Airlines is flying people…

THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It’s like he’s consistently lucky. Which means there’s something we’re not getting…” So remarked our energy analyst Kit Winder to me the other day (via text). He was describing the performance of Sam Curran, a…

Well dear reader, The results are in. … and it ain’t looking good for Joe Biden: Thank you for all who voted in our election poll – the more of these polls we do, the more of you seem to…

Just look at this thing: Tripling since the lows of 2016, the mighty Nasdaq index stands tall. The WuFlu has not been a hinderance; quite the opposite. It’s acted as an accelerant, like some kind of performance-enhancing drug. A steroid…

Happy hump day, dear reader. I told you yesterday this poll was coming… Who do you reckon will win the US election? I want to know what the Capital & Conflict readership thinks. I’m not asking who will win the…

I often come across pieces of editorial written by my colleagues that are so good that I feel compelled to share them only to remember that I cannot, for it wouldn’t be fair on their paying subscribers. I make exceptions…

To start us off, here’s some light relief to brighten your day: Source: Twitter There’s a lot to unpack in there; we could go down several different routes on the subject of negative interest rates and the European Central Bank’s…

I have some bad news. That’s if you like gold, at least. If you hate gold, this is probably great news; a ray of sunshine to brighten your day. And if you’re neutral about gold, perhaps this’ll just add some…

Gold, silver, or bitcoin… if you had to hold only one of these assets for the next decade, which one would you choose? That’s what I asked you last week. The results have since come back, and it turns out……

Let’s start the week with an energy crisis, shall we? I can’t have been the only one in dire need of coffee this morning… The phrase “skyrocketing gas prices” may bring images of the 1970s to mind. Global energy supplies…

“What do ye do when ye see a whale, men?” “Sing out for him!” was the impulsive rejoinder from a score of clubbed voices. “Good!” cried Ahab, with a wild approval in his tones; observing the hearty animation into which…

I’ve a story for you today – a deceptive one. Some might call it an investing success. Others might think it a failure. I’ll let you be the judge. It starts with a precious metal called palladium. While that name…

Happy hump day. Now imagine… It’s 19 August 2030. You wake up and stretch, and then immediately summon a screen to check your investment portfolio. A decade previously, an obscure investment writer on the internet challenged you to buy one…

It’s been a long time since I began working here at Southbank Investment Research, dear reader. … Or at least, it feels like it. In reality it’s been three years and a couple of months. I’ve changed a lot during…

Well dear reader, the results are in. This week, we’ve been exploring the prospect of another nationwide lockdown brought about by a second wave of WuFlu. It’s a heavily consequential matter for our lives, let alone our investment portfolios. And…

An old buddy of mine in Aberdeen was formally diagnosed with the WuFlu yesterday. He’s the only person I know to have actually tested positive, and not just exhibited symptoms which led them to conclude they had it. While several…

Dear Reader, Happy Hump Day. That storm sure arrived soon enough. Thunder is grumbling constantly from the horizon as I write this, and the dark clouds are coming closer – but it’s not hit me yet. I’ve not seen any…

It’s damn near sweltering here in London. Tropical weather, humid as hell. Inside or out, the heat feels inescapable. And the moist air clings to your form wherever you go. It’s like we’ve started importing foreign weather now that we…

I’m about to show you one of the boldest, strangest financial images I have ever seen. To be honest with you, I’m still not entirely sure what to make of it. When I first came across it, I laughed aloud…

Silver, which just had its best month in 40 years… has started the current month with its best week in 40 years. I was planning on showing you a couple of charts today already, but I’m just going to show…

I must confess dear reader, I had not heard of the band named Spandau Ballet until this week. It was only after I received the rather… cryptic series of texts above that I discovered the group and its 1983 hit…

Ever heard of the Vladimir Club, dear reader? It’s a real exclusive outfit. No riff-raff allowed. If you’re a member, you’ve probably got vaults in your name in Switzerland, a Learjet service on speed-dial, and a wine cellar big enough…

Ouch. The ol’ business of banking is taking a beating. HSBC is in the process of cutting 35,000 jobs and setting aside $8-$12 billion to absorb losses from WuFlu-related defaults. The popular portfolio holding has now fallen beneath the level…

“Our founders would not bow before a king. Nor should we bow before the emperors of the online economy.” – David Cicilline, US congressman for Rhode Island The emperors of Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon appeared before the US House…

Dear reader, I- Hmmm. So, uh… you remember that company that used to make cameras when you were a kid? Kodak? Apparently it uh… makes drugs now. Got three-quarters of a billion dollars as a loan from the US government…

Happy hump day, dear reader. I commented in yesterday’s note how the silver market had gone wild in the middle of the night – turns out some of you were involved! As one reader writes in: So, Boaz, were you…

Have you been enjoying the weather, Reader? It’s been a damn rainy few days here in London – though it sounds like it’s the rest of the country that’s really got drookit. I must confess dear Reader, I’ve been loving…

Ready for another market rodeo? We spent a fair bit of time on the action in gold silver last week – both exploded in price, with the former finally making it past its all-time high in dollars it hit in…

So here we are again dear reader, at the end of another wild week. It’s been a barnstormer for precious metals, as we’ve been writing about in recent days. We’re also seeing further signs of exhaustion in the tech sector,…

Source: Austrian Mint The Merry Men of Sherwood Forest Silicon Valley will not be making their way to our shores after all… I’ve speculated a couple of times in this letter what might happen to the British stockmarket if Robinhood,…

There’s something about silver that drives certain individuals nuts. If gold was the metal that drove the conquistadors mad, in recent decades silver has had the power to induce near-psychotic states among its holders. I almost wrote “investors”, but that…

“… If society could solve all its problems by printing money, the Roman Empire would rule the world.” – Fringe news aggregator Zero Hedge, addressing the Federal Reserve That line came to mind as I was wandering over what remains…

Happy hump day, Reader, And what a hump it is that we’re cresting. Charlie Morris, who had billions of pounds under his management when he was head of absolute returns at HSBC, described Tuesday to be “a memorable day in…

The year of our Lord two thousand and twenty just keeps on delivering the goods. Remember this chart of Tesla I showed you a month ago (A Looney Tune you don’t want to miss – 10 June)? Source: me, on…

A buddy of mine has had enough – he’s getting out of here. It was the first time we’d seen each other since the lockdown began. I could tell he was somewhat different when I met him, and not just…

A few weeks back on our market broadcasts we discussed how the cybersecurity sector was booming amid the lockdown. I use interest in the $HACK ETF to gauge interest in the sector, and it’s now reached all-time highs, up over…

Is this what a market top looks like? Source: Hao Hong, on Twitter When watching the market becomes not just a recreational, but a relaxing activity… you have to assume that the market must have moved in a direction which…

I asked you last week how it might be possible to buy four pints of bitter and fish and chips with change to spare from a single pound coin. Many of you wrote in with the answer I had in…

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season…

It felt odd going back to the pub after three months of drinking in private. But it got much weirder after a stranger began speaking to me about my hat. I was standing in the queue outside with my girlfriend….

Guess when this magazine cover was printed: Any ideas? Bloomberg bought BusinessWeek at the end of 2009, and the design is clearly quite dated… but pretty much all of those stories could be written today. Billions are flowing into index…

Two more days. Just two more days until the pubs open. Anticipation keeps building for a return to pub life. But when the doors finally do open on Independence Day… how expensive will a pint be? During the lockdown, we’ve…

Happy hump day, reader, To the reader who is asking, I am indeed in need of a shave. But back to that in a minute. I always enjoy looking through my mailbox to read your feedback on my scribblings (for…

We had a hut by the river with my brother Chekaren. We were sleeping. Suddenly we both woke up at the same time. Somebody shoved us. We heard whistling and felt strong wind. Chekaren said, ‘Can you hear all those…

At the beginning of this year, we published the most disturbing piece of research I’ve ever worked on here at Southbank Investment Research. It was about the crimes against humanity the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been perpetrating against its…

The pubs beckon. Independence Day awaits. Just a few more days… but a busy few, that’s for sure. And as I mentioned last week, we’re about to publish the monthly issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert on the…

As we’ve reached the end of yet another wild week, I reached out to macro specialist Nickolai Hubble and our energy analyst Kit Winder to discuss the stories they’re keeping a close eye on. In our final broadcast of the…

We’ve been writing about inflation this week. About that brutally destructive force, the bane of savers and investors alike, but especially cruel to the poorest in our society. It’s currently being administered to the everyman in a dose that’s just…

Go to the fringes of the investing world and you will find individuals with unconventional approaches, strong alternative opinions, or both. There are various topics around which these strong opinions are formed: gold, the accuracy of various economic schools of…

In yesterday’s note, we explored how inflation – almost forgotten as a threat by mainstream investors – may finally be brewing in the background, ready to return and wreak havoc. Now that it’s not just central banks stuffing money into…

1963. The decade that would be remembered as the swinging 60s had begun to earn its namesake. ‘63 saw the release of The Beatles’ first album (Please, Please Me), The Rolling Stones’ first single (a cover of Chuck Berry’s Come…

Make way, dear reader, make way! Make way… For King Benjamin Franklin! Behold, there he strides, in all his greenbacked glory… The US attracts all manner of international condemnation these days – criticism of its culture, of its endless wars…

As lockdown has dragged on and on, some folks have been hankering for a big ol’ fireworks display when it’s finally over. It’s quite understandable, especially for those in high-pressure jobs. Stuck alone indoors breathing stagnant air, you couldn’t really…

Who better to express “animal spirits” in the market than kids entering their teenage years? We’ve written quite a few times about the commission-free trading app in the States called Robinhood, which is very popular amongst youngsters. Now this was…

My colleague Nickolai Hubble has always told me one of the joys he has in his role in publishing his research is seeing his predictions play out in the news months later. It’s something I expect James Allen has been…

There’s a lot of trash in the European banks. A lot of loans that shouldn’t have been made. Loans where there hasn’t been a payment of interest or principal for… well, a while. Best not dwell on that. Let’s just…

Why have bankrupt companies become some of the biggest performers in the stockmarket in recent weeks? Could Robinhood, the trading app popular amongst kids in the States, be swooping in to save the day with a bailout of millennial capital?…

“I know this defies the law of gravity, but I never studied law!” – Bugs Bunny in High Diving Hare (1945) You might think that when a company starts exploring the possibility of declaring bankruptcy, that its share price would…

We went from a 2008 collapse to a 1999 stock bubble in under three months. – Chris Cole, Hedge fund manager earlier in the week Late last year, our publisher Nick O’Connor asked all of us editors at Southbank Investment…

A quick heads up: our broadcast schedule is changing slightly from this week forwards – we’re shifting from a daily broadcast to three per week. With a more streamlined schedule, we hope to provide you with more incisive content going…

Another week of chaos begins… With any luck, we’ll be able to go to the pub again soon – provided we identify as protestors first, of course. How times change. It wasn’t long ago that self-righteous moralists declared that flouting…

“Gold. Gold beyond measure, beyond sorrow and grief… Behold, the great treasure hoard of Thrór! the global ETF market!” – The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (2014, script slightly altered) I wasn’t a big fan of the The…

“We are the good guys. We are on the side of angels.” – Jeff Skilling, slightly less than three years prior to his arrest 2020 just keeps on getting better… Jeff Skilling, the former CEO of Enron who was released…

I’m back at the helm of Capital & Conflict and our daily market broadcasts. It’s been good to take a couple days off and get burned to hell by the impressively strong London sun, and indeed to give you a…

It wasn’t all that long ago that the price of a gold sovereign felt stuck around the £250 mark. Some days it’d be cheaper, some days it’d be more expensive… but between mid-2016 until May last year, the market’s idea…

In the meantime, I’d like to show you a note Akhil Patel recently wrote for his subscribers over at Cycles, Trends and Forecasts. It’s about the historical “war cycle” we discussed on Friday’s market broadcast, a topic both fascinating and…

Well there we have it. As we wrote in Tuesday’s note (The Bond girl, the Cuban icon, and the man from Dixieland), we were watching the dollar for its next move. If it broke higher in value, it’d be bad…

It’s time for a look through the postbox. It’s been a while since we’ve had a good rummage through my mailbox at [email protected]. I’ve been somewhat distracted with hosting our daily market broadcasts and all the wild events we’ve seen…

Has the storm passed? Are happy days here again? The fella from Cuba with a machete at his waist says so. The Bond girl lounging nearby agrees. But the fella from Dixieland… he’s still got a menacing look in his…

Well here we are [%= :subscriberName(D,Reader) %], Friday again. It doesn’t feel like a week has passed since I was writing to you last Friday. Though longer or shorter, I can’t tell – isolation has made my perception of time…

My perception of time is becoming increasingly distorted by the isolation… but it doesn’t feel all that long since our last bank holiday. Spending every day alone in my flat has made life a blur – as most weeks are…

We had long feared they would come. Watching the monetary corruption spread across foreign lands for so many years now, I guess we all knew, deep down, that they would arrive on British shores eventually. I had hoped we would…

It’s your last chance to celebrate it with a menthol Camel cigarette. From today on, all flavoured cigarettes and rolling tobacco are illegal to sell in this country. Get ‘em while you can. The rationale behind banning menthols is that…

Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve recently took to television to reassure the world that everything is, indeed, under control Gromit. While the Fed is of course the US’s central bank, his words are globally relevant to investors here in…

Between the years of 1714 and 1815 the Royal Navy went to battle every three weeks on average. A battle every three weeks… for 101 years. That’s a lot of fighting.   It’s a lot of gunpowder. A lot of…

“Way back”… in what feels like a year ago at the beginning of March, we noted how with every day that passed, a CEO of a major corporation was quitting their job. The exodus of executives was so great, that…

Behold the Wonder of this present Age, A Famous RIVER now become a Stage. Question not what I now declare to you, The Thames is now both Fair and Market too… And though these sights be to our admiration, Yet…

Well that’s that dear reader – The Halvening has happened. Block 630,000 was mined yesterday just after 8pm. The long-awaited block of transactoions only took 20 seconds in the end. It’ll be another few years before we see the next…

Back when sailcloth and gunpowder ruled the waves, and the oceans were rich with plunder and pirates chasing it, Her Majesty’s Government (amongst others) decided to try financing itself the same way Blackbeard did. It was called “privateering”, and was…

Why would somebody be mining bitcoin in a mosque? About a year ago now, some images started circulating on Twitter showing vast bitcoin mining arrays, racks upon racks of monitor-less computers whirring away in a place of worship: Source: @Rmahdavii,…

I hope you’re enjoying the bank holiday as much as you can during the lockdown. With the long weekend, and the highly anticipated “halvening” just a few days away now, I thought I’d send you something special. This is an…

When you’re stuck indoors all day, the imagination wanders more than usual. We rerun old memories like a cabinet of dusty video cassettes, taking respite in reveries of better times. Come with me, and remember back to this, four years…

My affinity with Long John Silver continues apace. A colleague tells me during a video conference call that I’m turning not grey, but ginger. And my trusty Holland & Holland baseball cap, extra-large to accommodate my dome, no longer fits…

JMW Turner, one of the greatest artists born in Britain, was a notoriously reclusive man. But it’s one of his finest works which has recently “gone into hiding”. The Fighting Temeraire, tugged to her last berth to be broken up,…

So here we are, at the end of another wild week. Another weekend in lockdown beckons… though according to Spotify ($SPOT), it’s earning money like it’s the weekend every day of the week. More than 30% more folks are turning…

“Realise your youth while you have it. Don’t squander the gold of your days, listening to the tedious, trying to improve the hopeless failure, or giving away your life to the ignorant, the common, and the vulgar. These are the…

A rather long note today. If you want to get right to The Two Thrones of the global economy, skip down to the next heading. If you want to meander down some rabbit holes with me first, just keep on…

Monday again, and we’re back in business. A new week beckons – and if it’s even a quarter as dramatic as last week, we’re in for a hell of a ride. While the crazy action of last week was contained…

Friday at last… I think. I find it hard to tell these days. All this staying at home has made the days a blur, I wouldn’t have been able to say it was Friday without checking. I often work on…

Too much oil is one thing… but no beer production is something else entirely. Some of the largest breweries in the world are facing a shortage of one crucial element required to brew their nectar. If left unchecked, a beer…

Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts… – Shah of Shahs, Ryszard Kapuściński (1982) Times have changed an awful lot since 1982….

The oil price in the US began Monday at $12. That’s pretty low. … But that didn’t stop it falling by 300% just a few hours later. Yes, you’re reading that right. The price of the most important commodity in…

I’m taking a short break from hosting our daily market broadcasts this week. My colleague Kit Winder will be hosting it in the meantime, focusing on how the WuFlu will permanently change the energy market. He’s never hosted a podcast…

Nobody wants to talk about this asset… but it’s been performing incredibly well during these wild times. It’s been in a bull market for years now. It wasn’t shook at all during the brutal March we’ve just had – indeed,…

Amid the WuFlu chaos… The escalating and ever more visible Second Cold War… The fiendishly volatile stockmarket… And as we all slowly go insane in isolation… We take a moment here in lockdown to admire something shiny in the sunlight….

“If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen ‘em all.” While this old saying may be true of Marvel films, it sadly does not apply to financial crises. They never arrive exactly the same way as they have in the past –…

Southbank Investment Research is shut today, but with everything going on out there and as it’s Eastertime, I thought we should send out something special in today’s note instead of my normal scribblings. Following the strong feedback we’ve had for…

Happy Easter Monday! I hope you’ve been enjoying the break as much as you can in these circumstances. I’ve been taking the time to get my thoughts in order, do some reading, and listen in to what the folks at…

An old buddy of mine contacted me yesterday asking what stocks he should buy now that the market has turned down. This very same friend contacted me at the very end of the crypto bull market to tell me he…

The ability of a gyroscope to remain stable no matter the forces at play around it has immense value.  That perpetual stability – rain or shine, chaos or serenity – has allowed engineers to create ever more complex systems around…

Who would win in a fight: former president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi… or freshly anointed governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey? I asked a few colleagues and contacts which of the central bankers they reckoned…

Somebody just got air-ambulanced nearby. The red chopper flew low over the rooftops with a mighty whirr, closer than any other aircraft I’ve seen whilst living here. All anyone could do is watch it through their windows like some metropolitan…

Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. – Shah of Shahs, Ryszard Kapuściński (1982) The chart speaks for itself. Source: me, on Twitter…

Is it just me, or did the day the pubs shut feel like an incredibly long time ago for you too? Seems like months since I’ve had a freshly poured pint in my hand. Let me tell you, when this…

Back when WuFlu was just a twinkle in some bat-eating deviant’s eye, I thought it’d be worth giving Seattle a visit. A reassuringly rainy area of the developed world with a strong beer culture and a view of the Pacific…

Remember when some fella attacked the bull sculpture on Wall Street with a banjo last year? We mentioned it in this letter at the time – The banjo player and the bull market golden calf (10 September 2019). We wondered…

You ever watch an American TV show or film and think they overdo it with the music? Just smothering scenes in slow piano when they’re trying to spur emotion in the viewer? I felt that when I was watching an…

I wish I was in Dixie, Hooray, Hooray In Dixieland I’ll take my stand, to live and die in Dixie Away, Away, Away down South in Dixie… – “I Wish I Was in Dixie” (1850s) You wouldn’t expect an old…

I’m sorry for not getting in touch with you about this sooner. What’s going on here is really quite something. Last week I wrote about how the price of precious metals and the cost of actually acquiring them are decoupling,…

Well that was it, dear reader. “Whatever it takes” indeed. Mario Draghi’s statement, which is credited with saving the euro back in the sovereign debt crisis, has been taken to heart – and to market – by the Federal Reserve….

“You’ll find, young man, the future looks rosier through the bottom of a glass.” – The Three Musketeers by Alexandre Dumas With the pubs shut, British investors are going to have a harder time imagining a rosy future – right…

If you’ve been listening to our daily market broadcasts this week, you’ll have heard Charlie Morris’s unbridled optimism in the . To close us off for this week, he penned this note for me recently on what’s going on in…

I asked Tim Price to write today’s Capital & Conflict, as he’s just the man you want in your corner during a market panic like we’re witnessing now. Tim has won awards as a fund manager for his defensive investing style, and…

The US stockmarket was halted just 30 seconds after opening yesterday. Couldn’t even survive a minute before eating a 7% loss. And that was after the Federal Reserve threw the sink at the problem, cutting interest rates to zero and…

The global stockmarket (MSCI World index, three-year chart) gets a front-row seat to a viewing of Leonardo DiCaprio’s The Revenant “Honestly I think every national politician is going to get CV-19. Their lives are a series of meetings like this,…

Let me be frank. By the time you read this, I have no idea where the market will be for almost any asset. The volatility and speed with which they are moving as I write makes it almost impossible to…

It was only a matter of time. The Bank of England (BoE) took it upon itself to cut interest rates, following the Americans’ example of a double-cut, reducing the BoE base rate by 0.5% down to 0.25%. They’re meeting again…

The CNN Fear & Greed index, which gauges the mood in the US stockmarket from utterly terrified at 0, and scandalously greedy at 100, is currently displaying a reading of… four. Fear is in fashion. But so far, the American…

“This is the best goddam drill the army’s ever put on!” – US Navy sailor at Pearl Harbor after the explosions began The bull market is dead. Long live the bull market. That’s the FTSE 100 well into the bear’s…

So you’ve heard of Big Tobacco… Big Oil… Big Pharma… Big Tech… But what about Big Loo Roll? If anybody’s making a mint from the pandemic panic, it’s the toilet paper manufacturers. The Australians are eating each other over Andrex….

The most powerful bank CEO in the world had to have emergency heart surgery yesterday. I don’t blame him. I was going to write to you about something different today, but the level of sheer stress writhing within the financial…

“How did he die?”  “Your contact?” Mr Market?” *nods* “Not well.” – Casino Royale, opening scene (mildly edited) It’s “No Time to Die”… or to risk losing Chinese box office revenue. I may well be proven wrong on this, but…

Another day, another dollar CEO decides they don’t want to be responsible for what happens next. This time it’s the man at the helm of Harley-Davidson ($HOG) who’s joined the group of easy-rider executives cruising into the sunset. What happens…

Many years ago, a lady by the name of Leslie Shook was contacted by a stranger who told her that she’d saved his life. She wasn’t the creator of some new wonder drug. Nor had she recently donated an organ,…

“Artist’s impression” of the global stockmarket after we buy everything the Shoshan-Hubble Inter-market Transnational Easing Scheme of 2020 is implemented and a BoE-financed foreign acquisition boom begins The British Empire, with its pink map and territory equivalent to the surface…

He had killed six men during the past month—or was it a year?—he had forgotten. Time had become curiously telescoped lately. What did it matter, anyway? He knew he had to die some time and had long ago ceased to…

Were you taught about this at school? Source: britishempire.co.uk This likely reveals a lot about my age, but I only discovered that maps of the British Empire were illustrated in pink relatively recently. For those as uninformed as myself, this…

Today’s letter comes from Eoin Treacy, who wanted to expand on a crucial flaw in the UK economy which he believes will drive. It all comes down to a simple metric so basic that’s it’s often overlooked – despite its…

In November 2008, in the churning black depths of the global credit crisis, Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided it was time for a trip. Leaving the winter weather and Downing Street behind, he charted a course for sunnier, sandier climes,…

What lethal goods were Harold Wilson, Margaret Thatcher, and Tony Blair all keen on selling to one particular client while they were in Downing Street? The three make for strange company. But their political differences – Wilson’s price fixing, Thatcher’s…

It’s that time again. Time for beer where beer is due – to a switched-on subscriber who can crack the investment theme that answers a riddle. But this time, we’re trying something slightly different. I’m not going to ask you…

Have you watched Treadstone on Amazon Prime by any chance? It’s a spin-off TV series from the Jason Bourne series of films. It’s not quite the same as watching Matt Damon pulverise legions of CIA/FSB foes without any equipment, but…

I’ve something special for you this fine Sunday. While you don’t normally receive my daily notes here at Capital & Conflict over the weekend, today we’re making an exception – we’ve received some valuable intelligence straight from “Corona-land” that’s worthy…

King of Thieves, released in 2018, is a film about the Hatton Garden heist that took place three years prior.   It had a lot going for it when it was released, with an all-star cast led by Michael Caine.   However,…

This chart may not look all that important… Source: Bloomberg  … but it is. Let me tell you why. That line represents the amount of gold held by certain investors.  It’s just hit an all-time high – an important story…

Cats and dogs litter the pavement. Their small fluffy bodies are contorted into unnatural positions, limp and lifeless. A rumour went around that pets might be carriers for the coronavirus, and their owners threw them from their apartment windows high…

There are always wars of opinion within the investment community – it’s a difference in views that makes a market after all. The more long term the issue is, the more likely you will find a binary split where two…

What I’m about to share with you is something subscribers to The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert asked us to make public. While I normally enjoy my job, what I’m about to link to in today’s note has most certainly…

Our ride on the “₿ullet Train” continues. This sure as hell isn’t a sleeper journey – if you doze off on this ride it might wipe you out… The bitcoin price over the last few days has been going at…

Between 3pm and 6.30pm on Monday, three and a half billion quid’s worth of BTC was transacted over the bitcoin blockchain. Nobody knows who it was or what it was for. And as every transaction verified by the bitcoin miners…

So the Chinese Communist Party ram £130 billion worth of stimulus into its financial system in a day… It makes it illegal for major shareholders in companies to sell any stock for six months… It straight up bans people from…

What connects a monument in the Czech Republic… David Bowie… A romance involving a pigeon… The ancestor of the “Marine Lizards” prowling the South China Sea… And an investment of several million dollars (in today’s terms) by JP Morgan in…

“What is it?” “It’s a pie machine, you idiot. Chickens go in, pies come out.” “Ooh, what kind of pies?” “Apple.” “My favourite!” “Chicken pies, you great lummox. Imagine: in less than a fortnight, every grocers’ in the county will…

What’s worse than finding a worm in your apple? Being eaten by it. And I’m not talking about the worm.   Bigger than BMW… Volkswagen… Daimler… Adidas… Lufthansa… Siemens… and 24 other titans of the German economy… $AAPL is now bigger…

As strange great swell of sea foam floods through the streets of a town in Catalonia… As warming weather leads to “exceptional breeding conditions” for locusts, and terrible swarms ravage East Africa, threatening famine… As cases of the coronavirus are…

Well that was quick! I was going to send through some additional doctored photographs, but several of you figured it out right away… Yesterday I asked you what historical event brought a motley crew including commodity traders, a US business…

It may be Monday… but that doesn’t mean it isn’t beer o’clock. Don’t worry, I’m not downing pints of Guinness at my desk this fine morning (though that does sound delightful). No, it’s time I put a bottle of my…

A truck chugs slowly through a street in Shanghai, spewing bulbous great clouds of disinfectant powder into tower upon tower of apartment buildings. It’s like the crop duster scene from North by Northwest. Except instead of taking place in a…

If you saved $10,000 (£7,600) a day… … every day… … since the pyramids in Egypt were constructed… … you would now have one fifth the average wealth… … of the world’s five wealthiest people. So says a report called…

A reader responds to our letter on Friday… Highly prophetic that you should write “guard your car” – someone has just had the catalytic converter off my mother’s car as it sat outside her house in West London. You guys…

What will a cocktail of market forces and climate change taste like, when they’re shaken together by a politico with a righteous twist of regulation? While this drink has yet to reach the global market, it is possible to get…

I hated my name when I was a teenager. I despised hearing “… What?” whenever I introduced myself, and didn’t like standing out during my formative years. In fact, I abhorred “Boaz” so much, that when I spent a year…

“Who do you think buys the stones I bring out? Dreamy American girls who want a storybook wedding and a big shiny rock just like the ones they see in the advertisements in your politically correct magazines. So, please, don’t…

Of the many brilliant Calvin and Hobbes comic strips penned by the great Bill Watterson, there is one which aptly describes our direction this week. Six-year-old Calvin feels that technology has separated humans from nature. And so while out walking…

Ayn Rand famously declared that “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality”. Escaping reality is big business, and likely always will be. Even during Oliver Cromwell’s Puritan cultural purges, people still risked going to…

How should one best prepare for long-term success? Get on the housing ladder as soon as you can scrape together a deposit? Should you invest in your appearance, to make better first impressions in your professional life? Maybe amplify a…

Yesterday, we speculated that the US is turning Russian. We weren’t referring to any of the “Trump is a Russian asset” hysteria of course – we were referring to how the energy market has changed the US’s temperament. When it…

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own” goes the advice of Baron Rothschild, sharing an investment lesson he learned brutally during the chaotic tumult of the 18th century. … or at least, that’s…

Well here we are dear xXreaderXx, We’re one week into 2020. And what a year it’s turning out to be so far. The US embassy in Baghdad being stormed by militia… an IRGC general getting droned by the Americans in…

Something a little unusual to go in today’s episode of our 20/20 Vision series. You see, normally it’s me interviewing our editors on video – but this time, the tables have been turned – and it’s me being grilled this…

Well here we are: another Christmas beckons. A lot of us at Southbank Investment Research will be heading back home next week to spend Christmas with friends and family – myself included. But don’t worry – we’ve lined up plenty…

Apple ($AAPL) has seen a 30% drop in sales, year-on-year, in 2019. I wouldn’t blame you for thinking this might lead to a similar drop in its share price – it’s an entirely reasonable assumption. But I’m afraid that’s not…

In today’s episode of our 20/20 Vision series, I bring you Tim Price, award-winning defensive investor and free market firebrand. In this interview, he lays out his investment philosophy, and answers your questions on investment strategy and how to prepare…

In today’s episode of our 20/20 Vision series, I’ve brought in our energy expert James Allen. An unashamed renewables bull, James has taken some of the negative press green energy took in 2019 on the chin, and lays out his…

In today’s episode of 20/20 Vision, I sit down with my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble to discuss what the coming year has in store for investors (we let our video production go nuts with the background). In our…

In today’s episode of our 20/20 Vision series, I’ve something special for you – a gentleman “old school” Southbank Investment Research readers in particular will remember and appreciate. The founder of our business, Dan Denning, was in town recently, and…

“Can you give me a good reason one person should have a BILLION dollars??” Some questions produce more questions than they do answers. That question comes from Peter Daou, a politico formerly in the employ of John Kerry and Hillary…

The “Santa Claus rally”, a recurring trend where stocks tend to go up as the end of the year draws near, appears to be arriving on schedule, with Boris Johnson loading the sleigh. I freely admit it: what happened on…

Owls have a reputation for being intelligent beasts. It’s hard to say where exactly this idea came from, other than their behaviour as predators, but it’s likely because Athena, the Greek goddess known for her wisdom was said to wander…

“We have been striking for over a year, and basically nothing has happened. – Greta Thunberg The world’s most valuable listed company was born yesterday – right as its polar opposite made the front page of Time magazine.   I’ve…

Brexit continues to deliver sterling results – in the most unexpected of places. You may well be familiar with some of the strong economic gains the UK has reaped since 2016: low unemployment, wage growth, interest rates above zero and…

As the end of the year draws closer, we’re preparing some festive content for Capital & Conflict readers which we hope to share with you over Christmas and Hogmanay. I’ll be hosting a short video series with our editors, to…

The next issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert drops tomorrow. As I mentioned yesterday, myself, Nickolai Hubble and Charlie Morris will all be issuing our predictions as to what will happen next year. As we’re in a festive…

It’ll be a short note from me today. I’m currently writing this month’s editorial for The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert. Charlie Morris, Nickolai Hubble and I are all submitting three predictions for 2020, and how to profit if we’re…

The governments of the world are in debt to the tune of £46 trillion. When you include unfunded liabilities like state pensions and welfare, the figure is much higher. And with politicos unlikely to break the habit of spending other…

If you’ve been reading this letter for a while, you’ll likely know I often compare events occurring now to those that have occurred in the past. My Cold War II thesis is probably the biggest example of this, though in…

Promising plunder was as much a skill for a pirate raising a crew back in the early 1700s as it is today for a politician. However, while pirate captains had literal skin in the game, losing their captaincy and often…

There are some phrases you should always be wary of when you hear them. “I trust you to do the right thing…” “I’m not telling you what to do, but…”  “In the end it’s your decision, but…” “This is not…

Will Rogers, the old-school American actor and humourist, once advised: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” What…

Remember, we are actively competing with nations who openly cut interest rates so that now many are actually getting paid when they pay off their loan, known as negative interest. Who heard of such a thing? Give me some of…

At the beginning of last year, a member of Trump’s National Security Council leaked a deck of PowerPoint slides to the press which had been presented to senior Whitehouse officials. In order to counter the rise of China, the presentation…

Considering the amount of press garnered by China’s Silk Road project in recent years, it’s surprising how little attention was paid to the US’s announcement that it was launching a Silk Road of its own earlier this month. The Silk…

I read a lot of comic books when I was a kid. Many of them were published in the States, and so they contained ads targeted at young Americans. I enjoyed seeing what the ads were like over the pond…

It seems our investing opportunities are running out, dear XXC&CsubXX. We wanted in on the yacht industry – more QE = more wealth inequality, we argued – and keenly anticipated the initial public offering (IPO) of Italian yacht builder Ferretti….

Remember this thing? A screen that never cracked…   A battery life that lasted for days… Required no updates required. An actually finished tech product right off the shelf (perfection requires no improvement, as the Russians say of the Lada)……

In today’s letter, I’m going to tell you about that heavily relied upon (though rarely acknowledged or appreciated) force underpinning the global economy that I’ve been referring to over the last couple of days. More importantly, I’ll tell you why…

What do you make of this thing? Looks like a UFO to me: Source: Sinot Yacht Architecture & Design That’s a superyacht concept from a design firm called Sinot. 112m in length, with all the goodies one would expect inside,…

What do horse asses, a 1.5 mile tunnel in Staffordshire, the Space Shuttle, and the price of oil all have in common? I wrote yesterday how the peace of “the post-Cold War order” (as Tony Blair would put it) bred…

A few days after the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, Tony Blair sent a note to George W. Bush titled “The Fundamental Goal”. “This is the moment when you can define international priorities for the next generation – the…

Our investing strategy has been scuppered. It’s been holed beneath the waterline. A favoured stock we were watching has been scuttled in the harbour before it ever took to the high seas… A little over a month ago we were…

How suddenly it seems the nights draw in at this time of year. Like Ernest Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy, the days seem to get shorter gradually, and then all at once. A few years ago in an interview, the hedge…

I got a new hoodie recently: bright blue, with orange details and a massive “Gulf Oil” logo printed on the back and breast (I say “I” got it: my girlfriend is credited with the procurement). As we’ve detailed in previous…

My tip for future investments. Funeral directors. Add in a few extras such as alternatives to burying or burning and you are onto a winner. For traditionalists, investment in land suitable for cemeteries. For those of the burning kind, super…

November already, huh? It feels like this year has flown by even faster than the last. With the nights drawing in and the Christmas trees nearly upon us, it’ll soon be time to reflect on the past year. How will…

It’s a bit like watching the national debt go up. Except the other way around. Source: nbim.no That’s the homepage for Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, the trillion-dollar beast of an investment portfolio born of the country’s oil revenues. While the…

I’ve never been to California, but I’m reliably informed that those who hail from the state are not known for their subtlety. With that in mind, it’s fitting that when Mark Zuckerberg showed up before Congress to testify on his…

It‘ll be a short note from me today. I’m currently working with Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter on a new project: a comprehensive guide to valuing Bitcoin, for speculative or long term investing purposes. The Bitcoin market…

Have thieves snuck under your car, ripped out its catalytic converter and harvested its innards yet? No? Well if I were you I’d be getting very protective of that grimy box under the chassis… for the precious metal within it…

“We rebuilt China over the past 25 years… But those days are over… No longer will America’s leaders hope that economic engagement alone will transform Communist China’s authoritarian state into a free and open society that respects private property, the…

Sometimes, you have to laugh. I know I did. Source: DW The news that the German defence minister suggested sending the emaciated German military into Syria, to provide the illusion that the EU can project power abroad, was quite something….

Or at least, that’s how nuclear Armageddon would have looked like in the “olden days”… That was the playbook for the last Cold War, produced by the Nuclear Threat Initiative over in the US, giving an illustration of just how…

Thursday could be one for the history books. I won’t beat around the bush. Let me tell you why I think an event that day is worthy of your attention, be you an investor or an observer with an interest…

In the wealthier countries around the Persian Gulf, gold can be eaten in all manner of ways. Injected into soups, dusted over fries, flaked on pizza, frosted on muffins… some hotels have to buy kilos of gold leaf every year…

I’d been meaning to tell you about this for a while, but hadn’t got around to it. I’ve been working on a new project here at Southbank Investment Research with Nickolai Hubble. It’s called the Daily Blitz. It’s not a…

On 24 January this year, an individual known by the online handle “Grubles” was woken early in the morning to the sound of thunder and rain outside. Half asleep, they rushed to make sure a small computer plugged into a…

As the Greek government is paid to borrow money, eight years after being charged credit card rates… As the Federal Reserve starts printing $60 billion a month, but refuses to call it quantitative easing… And while the Dutch central bank…

“You Americans don’t smoke anymore. You live long, dull, uninteresting lives.”  – Black Hawk Down A Blackhawk helicopter over Iraq. Source: WikiCommons It’s strange to think that once January comes around, all the kids born in this country when Black…

It’s a rare occasion in the office when several of our editors are around at once, and I wasn’t going to let it go to waste. Eoin Treacy and Sam Volkering, who spend their working lives analysing the future of…

“That’s funny. That plane’s dusting crops where there ain’t no crops.” – North by Northwest (1959) Source: WikiCommons If Hollywood ever churns out a modern-day reboot of North by Northwest, it’ll be a drone that hares after the protagonist in…

In the previous stages in the Atlas Mountains, I could always see the tire tracks of my competitors in the dirt in front of me. But right now, in the golden Sahara sand, I could not find any tire tracks….

I hope you enjoyed Kit Winder’s note yesterday. I was working on the latest issue of Zero Hour Alert last week, and I’m just getting caught up now. It was worth it though – that issue is a winner. Using…

Last week, my girlfriend was pleasantly surprised when she opened her mail to find gold inside. It was free: she hadn’t paid for it, and nor had I. Even more surprising, she hadn’t even paid for the postage – and…

Well now it’s official. The People’s Republic of China has made it past the Soviet Union. The USSR died at 69. The PRC has made it to 70. But with the US now raising its shotgun, for how much longer…

For the last couple of weeks, Nickolai Hubble has been furtively sneaking into the studio, not telling anybody what he’s in there for. Such behaviour is in some regards, to be expected; Nickolai has a reputation for being the office’s…

Making connections and recognising patterns where none actually exist is a risk all investors face. As humans, we’re hard-wired to do it. After all, our ancestors who didn’t make connections – like linking the sound of leaves rustling to the…

Over the last couple of days, the UK government has been doing something it never has before: selling bitcoin. It’s not doing it to bring about greater BTC adoption of course. Nor is this an attempt to suppress its price….

Well thar she blows again! A whale has surfaced once more in the bitcoin market – and this time, it’s caused even more of a stir. Though it’s disturbed the water, I’m not so worried; over the long term the…

Have you ever heard of Camel City? Its official name is Winston-Salem. It’s over the pond in North Carolina, and earned its nickname from being the base of the R. J. Reynolds Tobacco Company – creator of Camel cigarettes. Nearly…

Now we are ready to sail for the horn Weigh, hey, roll and go Our boots and our clothes boys are all in the pawn To be rollicking randy dandy-o… Sea shanties, like financial data, can be quite hard to…

I first visited New York City a couple of years ago. I was there to attend my brother’s wedding, but it was scheduled close to my birthday, so I took a few extra days off to see more of what…

The capital of Cuba likely isn’t the city that springs to mind when you think of a bustling stock exchange. But on the dusty streets of Old Havana, there’s still one standing there. The Lonja del Comercio building in Old…

There’s something happening here. What it is, ain’t exactly clear. There’s a man with a gun over there, Telling me I got to beware. I think it’s time we stop, Children, what’s that sound? Everybody look what’s going down… –…

“I reached pension age and then I ran out of money. So it occurred to me – perhaps I could live for free if I lived in jail. So I took a bicycle and rode it to the police station…

“Investing in today’s surreal world calls for the experienced eye of the Profit Hunter.” So read an ad for Artemis Investment Management on the side of a black cab. I noticed it as I was heading back into work after…

One cold December night in 1989, a man drove a lorry into Wall Street. He was there to commit a crime he’d spent two years preparing for – ever since the stockmarket crash of Black Monday in 1987. As he…

A few weeks back in this letter (Fear is in fashion –19 August), we declared that with the financial commentariat becoming so bearish, that it was high time we got a melt-up. However, if a global recession accompanied by a…

If negative rates become more widespread across the globe, then the financial system needs to be rebuilt on a new set of assumptions. The problem is we do not yet know what those should be or how they would work. – Jim…

Less than 5% of all bonds yield more than 5%. Pension funds need 7% to break even, assuming they are funded (most aren’t). Thus, almost all Pension Funds are fighting an impossible battle to meet future obligations. They Broke The…

What asset performs well in an era of deglobalisation? As luck would have it, beer. Or at least, beer made in certain areas. A few months back, a South Korean court ruled that Japanese companies must pay compensation to Korean…

Now we buy bonds for capital appreciation, and stocks for yield! – Kyle Bass, hedge fund manager Outside the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt stands a massive artificial tree. Named “Gravity and Growth”, this sculpture built of brass and…

There’s nothing quite like a nice suspension of Parliament to weaken a currency. If you’ve been trading the pound, I hope you made the right call this morning. The strength of the pound relative to the dollar from late last…

Though the year 2019 will not go down as one in which you finally began to earn some decent interest at the bank, it will at least go down as one which produced some exceptional political theatre. Who would’ve thought…

… we have begun a bull market in the world ‘control’ and a long bear market in the word ‘market’. Whether spoken in French, German or Bulgarian – ‘controle’, ‘steurung’ or ‘kontrole’ – all lead to the same thing: a…

We argued on Monday that now everybody is expecting a bear market, it’s unlikely we’ll see one arrive anytime soon. In fact, with everybody on the bearish side of the boat, we think one final, painful, cathartic hurrah may be…

I hope this finds you well, and you’re enjoying the bank holiday. Unless you’re in Scotland, in which case, I hope this finds you well and you had a good bank holiday three weeks ago. Anyhow, as I’m out of…

Donald Trump’s mastery of Twitter to bypass the media and control political narratives is unprecedented, and will go down in history as a symbol of our time.  We’ve argued in this letter before that his Twitter feed contains glimpses of…

Who’d have thought that we’d see Carlsberg encourage abstinence this year? A brewery discouraging the consumption of booze? Sure is wild. But as we noted a couple months back (Theatre of the absurd, 25 June), 2019 is feeling very much…

June Carter: Well, go on down to Jackson; go ahead and wreck your health. Go play your hand you big-talkin’ man, make a big fool of yourself, You’re goin’ to Jackson; go comb your hair! Johnny Cash: Honey, I’m gonna…

If the world enters a recession in the near future, it will be one of the most well-predicted events in economic history. All over the press, from Bloomberg, to the Financial Times, to the Economist, to CNN and the Guardian,…

Investing in a country “because it’ll be the next great empire” isn’t a thesis you hear every day. It certainly makes for a welcome break from the normal reasons, like low inflation and unemployment, decent demographics, etc. But hedge fund…

The Apollo 11 programme was developed faster than a next-generation iPhone. Why? I think it’s all about risk. The perception of risk – or perhaps I should say the feeling of fear – changes everything. Feeling like something is at…

As the US’s fresh batch of hypersonic weapons approaches the flight-testing phase… As a nuclear-powered missile test in Russia goes horribly awry… And as an Australian MP compares his country’s obliviousness to the threat of China as the French were…

Pub quiz (I know it’s a Monday, but humour me). As the pound gets wrecked… as German manufacturing is beaten with a shovel… and as the wheels fall off the Chinese economy (HengFeng marks the third Chinese bank in as…

Enough of Cold War II for this week – today it’s time for a rifle through the mailbag. (Heads up for new readers – your thoughts and observations on the subjects we explore here at Capital & Conflict are always…

Sometimes I’ll hear folks talk about trade and economic issues as separate from national security. Let’s make no mistake about it: China’s capacity, the People’s Liberation Army’s capacity to do exactly what they’re doing is a direct result of the…

“America’s predicament is tantamount to that of the Soviet Union”, runs the front page headline of a Chinese newspaper. “The American Empire is abandoning the values that have been regarded as its standard, such as the family and religion. And…

We wrote yesterday how mainstream investors have grown complacent to geopolitical issues thanks to decades of US dominance. They meet the rapidly developing Cold War between the US and China with a shrug. What better way to wake ‘em up…

We mentioned previously in this letter (“Crack Pipe”, 12/06/2019) that if the yuan cracked 7 against the dollar, that bitcoin would boom. That happened yesterday – and as expected bitcoin is taking off.  Cold War II is heating up –…

If you want to sell high inflation to voters as a positive thing, you’re gonna need a damn compelling narrative. It just so happens that such a narrative is being developed and distributed. A narrative that the millennials – who’re…

“Everybody would like a little more inflation…” – Christine Lagarde We dwelt yesterday on the divisions that have emerged between the millennial and boomer generations. The rifts that have emerged, especially since the credit crisis, have mostly been contained to…

The snake which cannot cast its skin has to die. – Friedrich Nietzsche The young and old appear to be at an impasse. Divided by wealth, divided by politics. Which rift caused the other? It’s arguable that the difference in…

The rain was a welcome reprieve over the weekend after the baking heat last week. This summer’s temperature has certainly given the press plenty to write about, and the Extinction Rebellion crowd cause to litter Central London with stickers. But…

It was so hot outside yesterday, I thought I’d been deported. Not back to Scotland of course. Somewhere sunnier – maybe even a tax haven. Sure is summer out there. I felt like Lawrence of Arabia as I headed to…

Trivia time. If you had to guess, when in history do you think this happened in the UK and the US? Earlier optimism about a progressive future gave way to a jazz-age nihilism and a pervasive cynicism about high ideals……

“It’s never a good time to be poor, but now is a really bad time to be rich.” Steve Diggle, a hedge fund manager said that in a Real Vision interview back in 2014. On the face of it, this…

In the early 1900s, a radical new idea was born, blossoming in ivory towers and high society. War, it became popular to believe, had been made obsolete. This strange idea, to be proved so awfully incorrect, was thanks to the…

Last week, we drew a comparison between the state of the bond market and Apocalypse Now. I’m not the only one here at Southbank Investment Research to have made the comparison. Tim Price over at The Price Report has his…

I was sent an email yesterday asking me what I think will happen in the next global economic downturn. By the senders reckoning, we’ll be “pretty screwed” he explained, as interest rates are still close to zero since the last…

“I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one of ’em, not one stinkin’ dink body….

Captain Willard: They told me that you had gone totally insane, and that your methods were unsound. Colonel Kurtz: Are my methods unsound? Captain Willard: I don’t see any method at all, sir. – Apocalypse Now, 1979 The horror. Data courtesy…

I read Calvin and Hobbes religiously when I was a kid. I used to memorise the storylines, and recite them at the dinner table – drove my parents nuts. For those unfamiliar, Calvin and Hobbes was a comic strip printed…

What a week it’s been. Yesterday, Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve told the Senate Banking Committee that they should not assume that the US dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency, and that bitcoin was a store of value…

I’ve something special for you today. A few weeks back, I noted that silver was barely stirring when gold began roaring in June. Yesterday, Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter gave his insights on the precious metals market…

There’s always some shoot-out or other going on in that wild west of finance otherwise known as the crypto market. Yesterday, protestors swarmed the headquarters of TRON, a major crypto project in Beijing, and police were called in to intervene….

If Mark Carney is ever hanged (by the government at least), it will be with a silk rope. This exemption from hemp rope is not a job benefit that comes with running the Bank of England. It’s an esoteric privilege…

“Not all EU civil servants are overpaid, some (for instance some contractors) are not, and many work hard.” – The Open Europe think tank Hello again [%= :subscriberName(D,Reader) %], Boaz Shoshan here. I hope you’ve been finding Kit Winder’s editorial…

We may only be halfway through this year, but it sure is turning out to be an eventful one. With that in mind, we thought now would be a good time to have a Southbank roundtable, and get as many…

We took a quick look at gold yesterday, which has recently belted higher all across the globe. After writing that note, I got the opportunity to speak to fund manager and gold bug Tim Price about the recent move. Though…

Down, down, down… and then all of a sudden UP all at once. This is a rather esoteric chart, but one I’ve become increasingly interested in over time: What this chart displays is what’s known as the “implied volatility” of…

2019 is beginning to feel an awful lot like 2016. Just as then, heralded by stalling global growth and low inflation figures, the central banker’s nightmare – deflation – is back. The same dynamics are playing out – the prices…

I was wrong. Bitcoin did not hit $10,000 by midnight on Friday. I was too bullish by 40 minutes: BTC reclaimed the $10k territory at twenty to one on Saturday morning. But once it hit the $10k handle, it was…

Will bitcoin hit $10k by midnight tonight? It’s at $9,600 as I write this, up more than 400 bucks since yesterday morning – and if recent weekends are any guide, the psychological $10k level may well be on the horizon….

Yesterday, we took a look at Mark Zuckerberg’s ambition to become a central banker, launching a form of “world money” called Libra. Libra will essentially be an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It’ll hold a diverse basket of currencies and short-term government…

Almost two years ago in Southbank Investment Daily, I speculated that Mark Zuckerberg was slyly setting the foundations for a US presidential run. After hiring Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign manager (“change you can believe in” still brings a cynical…

I had this one stock waiting in the wings, which I was dying to recommend when the conditions were just right. But as luck would have it, just as those conditions are arriving… I can no longer recommend it. The…

The London Metal Exchange is toughening its stance on alcohol consumption with new rules that will prohibit floor traders from drinking during the workday, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg The change in rules comes at a…

There were long and winding queues at the ticket machines for the metro in Hong Kong yesterday. The Hongkongers, who’d normally use their plastic “Octopus” cards to pay for public transport (similar to Oyster cards in London), instead wanted paper…

State seizure of private wealth in the UK is something I expect we’ll see a lot more of in coming years. The recently launched unexplained wealth orders (UWOs), which permits the National Crime Agency to seize your assets if it’s…

It’ll be a short note from me today – I’ve just returned from a short holiday, and am still getting properly caught up. It’s been good to “unplug” from screens for a while, and I highly recommend it. It does…

“How could it be that the economy which is leading the world, that was on top of the world in 1950, that after half a century of more patents, more professors, more scientists, more engineers, more everything that you could…

I hope you enjoyed part I of my conversation with Dan Denning yesterday. Today we continue on with part II, the latter half, where we discussed the causes of Cold War II between the US and China, the 2020 presidential…

Long-time readers of Southbank Investment Research will remember Dan Denning, our erstwhile publisher and the former writer of this very letter. Dan was back in town recently, having been on adventure all around the globe looking for “boltholes” where liberty…

You could almost draw this chart with a setsquare. Investors in Deutsche Bank have been reminded once again that just because something is cheap doesn’t mean it’s valuable. Trust is a damn rare commodity these days, and $DB, one of…

At 0%, Bitcoin has a higher yield than government bonds in 18 countries whose central banks are attempting to debase their currencies and inflate asset prices. In unrelated news, Bitcoin is up 112% year-to-date. – Charlie Bilello, on Twitter That’s…

Yesterday we took a look at who it might be that’s bidding up bitcoin. In today’s note, I’d like to zoom out a bit, and put the blooming of BTC in the context of the global macroeconomic garden. For regardless…

Yesterday we took a look at bitcoin’s abrupt spike upwards over the weekend. Today, let’s investigate what has so suddenly woken the crypto market. This is not the product of retail investor exuberance which characterised the grand bull run of…

Look into the camera. Hold the sign up in front of you. Keep the sign there, and now turn your head to the left. And now to the right. Good. Getting your mugshots taken in this manner feels like you’re…

Optimism. Devotion. Confusion. Scepticism. Outright hatred… Cryptocurrencies bring out a wide spectrum of responses from investors. Their recent arrival in the investment world has been divisive, as some dismiss their existence, while the optimists look for fundamentals that can be…

Imagine an investment that made you rich… and made you feel like the planet’s saviour? A winning combination, right? Great investment gains plus a higher self-esteem… who wouldn’t invest? It’s a Prozac investment play. I think I’ve found what could…

Whatever your opinion on climate change, its increasing presence in political discourse is set to continue. The consequences of this – how governments decide to interfere in the economy in the name of climate change – is tricky to predict,…

It’ll be a short note from me today. We have a guest in the office this week, our former publisher no less, who’s come over from New Zealand for a brief visit. Long-time subscribers to Capital & Conflict will remember…

Somebody is trying to turn off the world’s biggest oil tap. The last few days have seen multiple attacks in the Arabian Peninsula, all directed toward hindering oil and gas operations. It began on Sunday with the UAE declaring that…

I had almost forgotten the madness of the crypto market. In late 2017 I was endlessly squinting at my monitor to make sure I hadn’t misread the figures I was seeing – the sudden changes in price were so extreme….

Further to our musings on energy this week, I’d like to introduce you to one of our editors who thinks crunch time is approaching for the Gulf oil powers. Eoin Treacy is of the opinion that Saudi Arabia in particular,…

Earlier this week, I asked your thoughts on what the future holds for Saudi Arabia, oil, and energy in general. Thank you to all who wrote in, it’s been great to hear your predictions and stories on the topic. On…

Larry Kudlow, former television host and now director of the National Economic Council over in the US, recently appeared in a video on the official White House Twitter account, in which he proudly exclaimed in a prepared statement: “Wow. Low…

In 2005, two men made a bet over the phone. They both chipped in $5,000, with the winner to take the ten grand, plus interest earned on 1 January 2011. It became known as “the $10,000.00 question”, and gained a…

Today and next week, you’re in for something special. If I told you that net household wealth around the globe would double by 2026, would you believe me? To clarify, by net household wealth, that’s the value of everything owned…

Scrolling through my Twitter feed over the long weekend I came across something curious. Now curiosities, are of course, par for the course on Twitter (which is why I imagine a lot of folks use it), but this one stood…

US oil exports are a success story of the past decade. They are a function of new drilling technology, record average annual oil prices post-2008, cheap capital post-2008, and one last (but greatly-underappreciated) factor: The US government sanctioning cheaper oil…

Wishing you a very Happy Easter from all of us here at Southbank Investment Research! Hopefully you’ll be spending this long weekend with family and friends (in the sunshine if we’re lucky). But if you get a spare moment, I’ve…

Hope you’ve been having a great Easter. And I hope you enjoyed part I of my conversation with James Allen on the possibility of a “Crude Credit Crunch” (if you’ve not watched it yet, you can see it here). James…