Boaz Shoshan

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom VAUXHALL, LONDON – Well dear reader, we had a good run. But today marks the end of the line for Capital & Conflict. From here on out, this newsletter…

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom HYDE PARK, LONDON – I have some bad news. Actually, it’s not that bad. It’s just a change. But it is something you should be aware of as a…

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past 25 years, investors have bought – on average – $115 million worth of stocks around the world every trading day. That comes to roughly $29 billion entering the stock market every year.

The US joins the Soviet Union, the British Empire, and a long list of ancient powers that were bested by this unforgiving country at the centre of the world. Is the sun now setting on America’s superpower status, just as it was for the Soviet Union?

I hope this letter finds you in good health, and having a great Sunday. I don’t normally write to you on weekends, but felt I had to make an exception today. For today is a very special occasion – a 50-year anniversary, no less. And if you enjoy my scribblings to you at all, I reckon you won’t want to let it go unobserved.

Last week, I asked you if you were feeling bullish or bearish on bitcoin. It’s not the first time I’ve asked the readership of Capital & Conflict such a question, but with the market evolving so fast it’s worth keeping our intel fresh.

But before we get to that, there’s a different question I’d like to ask you. This is the very question myself and Charlie Morris have been pondering for our latest issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert, going out tomorrow, and I’d love to know what you think.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – We must end the week on a sombre note. For tomorrow is a grave day indeed…

It was in 1740 when the Royal Navy first formalised a daily rum ration for sailors aboard Her Majesty’s ships – what would become fondly known as “the tot”.

Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Watch the live stream this Friday We’ll be streaming our latest episode of Southbank Live on Friday at 10am here on YouTube – my guest this week is our…

While I’m sure Her Majesty’s fine crew at the “Doughnut” in Cheltenham can trace my movements with ease, there’s something uniquely dystopian about willingly installing government surveillance tech on to one’s own electronics for “the greater good”, so I never installed the Test & Trace app.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Following our look at bitcoin last week, I thought I should show you this small roundtable recorded over at Fortune & Freedom on Friday – featuring Nigel Farage, Nickolai Hubble and our tech expert Sam Volkering.

As I said yesterday, from the amount of bearishness I’ve seen from market commentators in recent weeks, I’m feeling pretty bullish. But one must never fall prey to wishful thinking – and as I’m a BTC holder, I of course want the market to be strong.

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past few weeks I’ve seen several veterans of the crypto space utter a similar refrain. Something to the tune of “We had a good run folks – I’ll see you in four years’ time.”

CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – What is it about the subject of finance that lends itself so much to squid metaphors?

In 2010, Rolling Stone famously described Goldman Sachs as “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

I hope you’ve been getting some decent weather, wherever you happen to be reading this. Sure is toasty out here – but as Nickolai Hubble will tell you, the temperature is rising even further in inflation statistics…

“Freedom In Name Only”, or FRINO, was the topic of our latest Fortune & Freedom podcast with Nickolai Hubble and Nigel Farage – while you’re celebrating our state-sanctioned “freedom”, I encourage you to give it a listen.

PICCADILLY, MANCHESTER – Gold holds the crown as the metal which feeds on social unrest and distrust in authority. But I suspect it shall be its elder sister platinum which will soar if the chaos unfolding in South Africa persists…

THE HOWFF, DUNDEE – Political agendas favouring renewable energy (such as the “Green New Deal” which we see touted in the States) are, like all political agendas, polarising issues. There was a time when investors could remain “above the fray”…

THE GEORGE ORWELL, DUNDEE – In our first episode of Southbank Live, gold expert John Butler explained how the new banking rules known as Basel III could lead to deep structural changes in the gold market. You can watch it…

GALLERY 48, DUNDEE – “History might be rhyming, but there are a lot of different songs being played at the same time” says Nickolai Hubble of the current investing environment. When looking forward into the 2020s, we wonder what market…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A few months ago in The Ultimate Philanthrope a reader suggested that Satoshi Nakamoto, the mystery man behind the creation of bitcoin, might be a modern-day Thomas Guy. Guy, a bookseller in the 1700s, made a fortune…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Do you remember what happens after a housing bubble bursts? That’s what my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble would like to ask you in today’s letter – for it seems many have forgotten. But before we…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A quick note before we begin today. I’ll be hosting an online event tomorrow with a very special guest. He’s an American CEO with quite the investment tale to tell, and if you’re interested in streamlining your…

MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Named “Fundee” by some, and “Scumdee” by others, the bonny city of Dundee has a polarising nature. I used to come here quite often when I was younger to visit friends who were studying at the universities…

HOLBURN, ABERDEEN – Felix Rohatyn was quite a character. He possessed what he called a “refugee’s sense of value”, which he picked up while on the run from the Nazis. When France was invaded in 1940, his family fled from…

BROOMHILL, ABERDEEN – Back at the helm of Capital & Conflict once more – with something special to share as well. I hope you’ve been enjoying the market musings of Andrew Hutchings and Will Dahl in my absence – I’ve…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH ­– My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble is no stranger to controversy. Truth be told, he likes to stir it quite a bit. This note he penned for Fortune & Freedom (click here to subscribe) is…

THE BALMORAL, EDINBURGH – If you’d only been observing the revelry on the streets over the weekend (both day and night), you’d have thought Scotland had defeated England with extreme prejudice at the match on Friday. Still, a good result…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – I’d been putting it off for so long… Looked steadily more ridiculous as the months have gone by… And been called a “pirate” (amongst other things) as a result… But it was finally time to get…

“A lethal dose to anyone within ten yards. Get it while it’s hot!” – Edge of Darkness (1985) NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Do I count any nuclear bulls amongst the readership? Anyone stacking uranium rods at home, or stuffing them…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Edinburgh, like so many cities, looks its best in the sun. When the rays hit it just right, the sandstone skyline shines like gold. And shine it has over the past few days – we’ve had…

THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble isn’t one for political correctness. As I like to say, he won’t screw a silencer on his speech. This might preclude him from various other professions and speaking opportunities,…

THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – There’s been a bit of drama here at Southbank Investment Research of late. It’s about our Beyond Oil Summit which goes live on Wednesday (get access here if you haven’t signed up yet). The subject of…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Our very first Beyond Oil Summit feels like a different epoch… but it was only last year. Our plans for the event, featuring first-class energy experts on the future of black gold, began at the very beginning…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Well, the results are in from Monday’s poll… And I must say, I’m a little surprised: A lot of oil bulls out there – nearly three quarters of respondents. And there I was thinking I had a…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – They called them the Seven Sisters. Seven companies which ruled the world. It all began in August 1928, at a castle called Achnacarry. It’s in the Highlands, near Ben Nevis – about half an hour’s drive from…

“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts obligingly up into the air and falls back…

BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – I have some bad news, dear reader: the Aussies have us beat. I’m not talking about the cricket. I can accept the weaponised autism of Steve Smith being a challenge (especially when sandpaper is involved). But when…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – What’s the best way of protecting yourself against inflation? Ask a group of investors, and you’ll get as many answers. Real estate, agriculture, woodland, gold, oil… many investors have a favourite “hard asset” up their sleeve…

THE STANDING ORDER, EDINBURGH – It almost feels like things are getting back to normal here. Almost. The streets are thronging with folk. Not so many as pre-WuFlu, but it’s damn busy nonetheless. There are enough tourists on the Royal…

What follows is the third instalment of Nickolai Hubble’s Inflatuation series. In case you missed them, click here to read part I and part II. The real inflation hasn’t even started By Nickolai Hubble for Fortune & Freedom Welcome to…

What follows is the second instalment of Nickolai Hubble’s Inflatuation series. To read part I, click here. How inflation gets out of control By Nickolai Hubble for Fortune & Freedom Friday’s examination of inflation explained how I saw inflation coming…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Friday at last. A bank holiday weekend beckons… In the next few instalments of Capital & Conflict, I’d like to share a trilogy of works by my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble. Long-time readers know…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – “My candle burns at both ends; It will not last the night; But ah, my foes, and oh, my friends— It gives a lovely light!”  Edna St Vincent Millay Apparently that was Roald Dahl’s motto. I…

NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – “Is this a big problem for us?” asks a reader. They point to a topic discussed during our recent Gold Summit: In your [Gold] Summit discussion with Eoin [Treacy], you predicted a substantial fall in the…

THE HANGING BAT, EDINBURGH – At long last, I’m back in my favourite pub. Edinburgh is pleasingly lively – not so beaten down by the lockdowns as I’d feared. It’s been a couple years since I’ve been back here, and…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – In yesterday’s note, a reader made the case against gold. Or more specifically, against investing in gold miners over the long term. While it may feel like inflation is here to stay, they argued, it will not…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – On Monday I asked you if I’d made a grave error in dumping my company pension pot into the gold mining sector. If you’ve been reading this letter for even a short time, you’ll know I’m very…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Boaz, I don’t believe you, you’re not that stupid, it’s bullsh*t.” Would you mind telling me how you really feel, please? I must say, I’ve had a great time reading the responses to Monday’s note (see: Have…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Remember when I said earlier in the year that – contrary to popular belief – it was inflation that was the big risk to the bitcoin rally? (See: The big risk to ₿itcoin – 8 January) Well,…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Back in Staffs – right on time for the pubs to start letting people inside again. I’ll see you at the pub later. In light of our 2021 Gold Summit, I think it’ll have to be a…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – How much inflation can you tolerate? What percentage of your savings are you willing to watch burn every year, “for the good of the economy?” 0%? 1%? 5%? Perhaps I shouldn’t be asking. After all, that…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Think you’d ever spend some of these? They’re called “Goldbacks”. That’s 24 carat gold, rolled thin as paper, and then insulated with even thinner layers of plastic. That’s the highest denomination Goldback there is: the 50….

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Right on cue as our 2021 Gold Summit heats up (don’t miss today’s Keynote Address), Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter Wealth Builder has recently turned even more bullish on the metal. He already…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – How much gold is too much? This is probably the wrong question to be asking in the current climate. If anything, your average investor should be asking themselves, how much gold is too little? I don’t…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Get gold,” urged Spanish King Ferdinand II of his ambitious explorers in 1511, “humanely if possible, but at all hazards – get gold.” They took the “getting gold” bit to heart. As for “humanely”, well… that…

Before we get on with today’s letter, a quick heads up – if you haven’t signed up yet to our 2021 Gold Summit, you should do so here. I’ve been working on it for several months now in preparation for…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Can you guess what asset I’ve charted here? I’ll give you a clue – it’s a commodity. A hard, shiny one. It’s not gold, which we’ll come to in a minute. It’s one of gold’s siblings….

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Two years ago, we took a step into the unknown as a business with the launch of our 2019 Gold Summit. We hadn’t tried the format before, and we were unsure if it would be to…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – If you own gold, it’s quite likely that you expect the banknotes in your wallet or purse to lose their value in the years to come. That’s certainly one of the reasons I own it –…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – A dear reader writes in to complain… we’re stuck in a rut he says, and we need out: All of you at Southbank are going on & on about just one thing … Bitcoin, yet not…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Perhaps gold is cheap, just as it was in 1970 and 2000. I believe that this is the case.” … and so do I. That was Charlie Morris there in a recent update of The Fleet…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “We haven’t seen anything like this in the last five to ten years,” an American bullion dealer tells me over the phone. “But we’re still not seeing anywhere near the level of interest there was in…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – You exit your tent on the sound of war trumpets. The encampment is awash with panic. The enemy have been spotted advancing over the horizon – and they’re swarming towards your position. As commander of the…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Is this a nightmare?” asks a dear reader… I’ve received some wild responses to my recent letters. Some read like a fever dream: Bitcoin is (in my opinion) an Illusion, caused by drinking too much alcohol…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – We have now entered the final phase of the most important market cycle there is, writes our colleague Akhil Patel. The land cycle has crossed its final hurdle, passed its last stopping post (the “mid-cycle slowdown”),…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – I’ve finally figured it out. After years of struggle… endless debates, fights, and bickering… from rootless speculation to ludicrous allegation, in a seemingly bottomless pit of conjecture… I know who Satoshi Nakamoto is. The pseudonymous creator…

WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – I gave this away as a gift recently. It’s a remarkable little piece of kit. No ordinary USB stick, this orange flash drive is a miniature treasure chest – with virtually no limit on capacity. You…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – It’ll be a short note from me today. I’m adding the final touches to a project I’ve been working on behind the scenes for a while. I’ll be able to show you what’s been going on later…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – Last Friday in Dou₿le Trou₿le I showed you a note from my colleague Charlie Morris, where he illustrated just how extraordinary the phenomenon of bitcoin continually doubling in value is. He’d written that note at the beginning…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – The doors to a speculator’s paradise have been thrown wide open. Rolling golden fields stretch into the distance. And those that dare explore this land seeking riches, risk ruin in equal measure… Yes, dear reader: it’s alt-season….

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – There’s a chart I’d like to show you today. Just one. It’s the reason I don’t feel I can be bearish about bitcoin right now, despite all the hype… But first, some context. Remember The Big Suck…

God damn them all, I was told we’d cruise the seas for American gold, We’d fire no guns, Shed no tears… Now I’m a broken man on a Halifax pier, The last of Barrett’s Privateers… –  Barrett’s Privateers (unofficial anthem…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – How many times do you reckon the price of bitcoin has doubled over the years? Bear in mind, bitcoin only began being traded for currency (and not for favours like pizza deliveries) in 2010. And where exactly…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – I told you you’d need to act fast… That entire batch of ₿lockhead amber ale sold out in 12 hours. My hopes that there might be some extra left for me to buy in a fortnight have…

SOUTHWARK, LONDON – This can’t be normal, surely. Surely. Is it really time to buy bitcoin when there are adverts telling you to buy it on the London Underground? Conventional investing wisdom would suggest the opposite. Ads for speculative investment…

Available now – while stocks last! SOUTHWARK, LONDON – Well, here I am, back in the capital, for a little while at least. How long I’ll stay, I’m not sure just yet. I’m in town to do some work on…

SOMEWHERE ON THE ABERDEEN-LONDON LINE – I hope you had a good Easter. With the Ides of March now over and the re-opening now imminent (hopefully), we wonder what delights await investors in the second quarter of 2021. A couple…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Which of the major central bankers would come out on top in a bar brawl is a heavily under-discussed topic amongst investors. The top contender – by my humble estimation at least – used to be burly…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Who would you trust more? A bond investor telling you they feel something is off… or a stock investor telling you everything is hunky-dory? You’ll often hear it said that “bond guys are smarter that stock guys”…

Available 6 April at Cheddar Ales ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – One of the primary perks of being editor of this letter is being able to engage with the readership. As you can probably tell if you read Capital & Conflict often,…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The energy sector has been a hotbed of market unrest over the past year: a constantly evolving, volatile warzone enriching and ruining investors in equal measure. Last April negative oil prices busted on to the scene for…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The beached whale ain’t budging. The Ever Given remains stubbornly lodged in the middle of the Suez Canal. And the traffic jam is now close to some 240 vessels long… And that’s just in the jam itself….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – We examined the spectacle of the Ever Given yesterday, the 200,000 tonne container vessel blocking the Suez Canal. As of this morning, it remains wedged in place, creating a traffic jam in global trade 150 vessels long…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If your travel today involves the Suez Canal, there will be a slight detour around Africa…” Source: Twitter Talk about a spot of bad parking. As of this morning, the 200,000 tonne Ever Given (which some believe…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’m afraid it’ll be another short note from me today – I’ve been called away to conduct an interview with a certain globe-trotting market expert as part of a broader event we’re planning for you. This video…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A short note from me today -there’s a project I’m working on behind the scenes that demands much of my attention. We’re keeping it under wraps at the moment, but I’m looking forward to sharing it with…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Let’s have a little rummage through the postbox as we end for the week… I received many responses to Red Collapso last week. As bitcoin rises in value, the question of how governments will respond to it…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – During the period running from Sunday to Tuesday, over a billion dollars were lost in an event which keeps recurring. It’s almost like clockwork. That’s the third time this year this has happened by my count, and…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Happy St Patrick’s day! While I’d love to join you with a Guinness (Lord knows I’ve drank enough of them in recent days), I’m afraid I’ll be staying dry tonight. My beer fast for Lent has finally…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I told you about my bullish view on oil last week – I think we’re due $100 a barrel this year. Further to that note, there’s a snippet of research from Charlie Morris over at The Fleet…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – As the week draws to a close, I thought we should finish it off with a chart. And not just any old chart either – this has recently become my favourite chart of the gold price. I…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “My Son-in-law has just bought ‘A Dummies guide to Bitcoin’” writes a reader. “I didn’t say anything, but headed towards the drinks cabinet for a large glass of ‘Red Collapso’”… Bitcoin ain’t for everyone, that’s for sure….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I took a wander downtown the other evening. I needed some fresh air, and I was curious to see how the high street is looking like these days. We’re all pretty used to the sight of desolate…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – You won’t come across something like this every day. Of that, I’m almost certain. Here at Southbank Investment Research, the editorial team like to do a lot of reading – especially on fringe financial subjects which may…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Last week, I asked you if you think the bitcoin price has peaked, or if the bull market still has more juice in the tank (Power Games – 4 March). Is it all downhill from here, or…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I feel like I’ve opened a Pandora’s box. When I asked the readership for a suitable collective noun for gold sovereigns, I didn’t expect such a sustained response. Even after Tuesday’s note where I settled on “splendour”,…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’m keenly aware that I’ve been bumbling on about bitcoin very frequently in this letter, monopolising our conversation and without giving you a moment to speak on the subject. I want to know your views. Even if…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. To my eyes, it can only go one of two ways – we’re on the cusp of either a parabolic blow-off top, or a bear market back to the likes…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s somewhat fitting that as we approach “The Ides of March”, a deadline in the Roman calendar for the repayment of debts, that debt is beginning to matter for markets. A little while ago in Rumblings of…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s coming up to a year now since the WuFlu “metal famine”, when it became nearly impossible to obtain gold or silver from bullion dealers. Remarkably, the situation today feels very similar… Last March, the supply chain…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s going to be a long Lent this year. To make lockdown more interesting, I decided to give up food. I’ve long been enthralled by the story of Bavarian monks in the 1600s who stopped eating during…

In light of bitcoin passing the incredible milestone of $50k per BTC, it’s time to rally the troops and reassess our position. Where do we go from here? Is this the top of the latest crypto-boom, or are we only…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Another old schoolmate contacted me out of the blue the other day to ask me if he should buy bitcoin. And now even Peter Schiff, notorious for his hatred of bitcoin, is talking about $100k BTC prices:…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Any ideas what this is? It’s a pretty straightforward chart, that’s for sure: I know plenty amongst the Capital & Conflict readership like their metals, so I suspect that chart may be familiar to some of you….

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A month ago, I told you how a buddy of mine was getting into bitcoin, and how I feared this might be a classic sign of a market top (What should Nixon have done in 1971? –…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The year was 1862. Lewis Carroll was writing Alice in Wonderland in Oxford… America was alight, burning with a Civil War… … and the French were getting close to pasteurising milk. The Oil Age was in its…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well I must say, the timing of my note on Monday (Party at the frontier) wasn’t the best. My prediction that we were about to experience an alt-season, where bitcoin will take a step back and other…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – We’ve had a fair bit of snowfall over the last few days. It’s nothing extreme – it’s not piling up high on the pavement – but it is damn chilly, and enough to remind everybody that we…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If I told you, I’d have to kill you,” he said gravely, wine glass in hand. It was the summer of 2017. I was in the Royal Automobile Club on Pall Mall, where Charlie Morris had just…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I was given a set of lockpicks for my birthday a few years ago. I’d always wanted a set when I was a kid after reading one too many adventure novels, and a relative of mine thought…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Who is it that’s been pushing the price of silver around over the past week? They’re hooded for sure… but is it really Robin, the Prince of Thieves? Or does another, more mysterious individual stand under the…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – In yesterday’s note, I published a few responses I’ve received from the readership on the curious case of Tesla. Broadly speaking, most of the letters I received took a negative view on the company – or at…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is it just me, or was that an incredibly long January? Hogmanay feels forever ago (though I’m sure it feels even longer than that for those who braved Dry January). A month can be an awfully long…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – They’re calling it “The Capital Riot”. Over the pond, millennial militias are on the prowl. It’s patriotism run amok. They’re hunting down, brutalising and bankrupting all those suspected of committing the most anti-American activity of them all……

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A reader writes in: I read your posts and you are often on the mark – thank you! I wonder if you have written about Tesla. To me this appears to be the greatest bubble of them…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “One of the greatest risks in investing is crowding. Where there is hype, there is danger. That’s not just for bitcoin, but true for financial markets. Turn that idea on its head, and the contrarian starts hunting…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Anybody bought a new car recently? I don’t know anybody who’s used the lockdowns as an auto-shopping opportunity, but there’s gotta be some out there… I was struck by a statistic published recently that car sales fell…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Earlier this week, somebody decided to inscribe the bitcoin blockchain with a bible verse. “Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good – Romans 12:21” is embedded within a transaction on block 666,666, presumably…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “I make the biggest efforts possible to not support the Chinese economy in any way. Supporting the economy is supporting the CCP. It’s crazy more people in the world are not standing up against this.” So says…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “Could this possibly be true?” a reader asks. It’s quite a question. They’re effectively asking if the price of one bitcoin could rise to $4.38 million. I must say, that is quite the price forecast. Bitcoin gets…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – 13 rounds in the magazine, plus one in the chamber. You could fire this thing 14 times without needing to reload. Only problem is, there’s a shortage of bullets due to a sudden surge in demand… A…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Ever since last March, I’ve grown increasingly bullish on a certain investment. Now to be clear, I have adored this asset for a long time – you might call me something of a collector. But I believe…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is our interest in shiny bits of metal and magical internet money leaving our flank open to a major currency move? This reader thinks we might be blindsided: … everyone is predicting the Fed to carry on…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – One of my personal contrarian indicators has begun to flash a warning… but can it be trusted? If you’ve been reading my scribblings for a while, you may well know the story about an old schoolfriend of…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Finally, a nice strong pullback in the bitcoin price. Thousand-dollar increases in price every day are great fun, but unsustainable – this weekend’s drop down to $34k is cause for relief. I mentioned last week how the…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Thirty-seven thousand dollars per bitcoin? Twenty-seven thousand pounds apiece? Why not. Why not? Watching bitcoin is like watching an art auction these days. The price just keeps going up, interrupted only by nervous pauses… and an ever-growing…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So why is it that the bitcoin price only seems to go up at night? Why does it only rise between 10pm and 8am, like some kind of vampire? As we illustrated in yesterday’s note, the overwhelming…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is bitcoin becoming a household name once again? While the subject of bitcoin will be familiar to both initiates and veterans of Capital & Conflict, something I noted frequently in this letter, both in 2019 and 2020,…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So here we are, at the dawn of 2021 AD. I hope you had a good Hogmanay – nothing too eventful for me this year due to lockdown restrictions, but I enjoyed it nonetheless. If you’re doing…

I hope you’ve been enjoying some of our festive content while our office is shut for the holidays. Rest assured, normal service shall resume in January – but for today, I’d just like to wish you a very happy Hogmanay….

I hope this email finds you enjoying the festivities in good health. I won’t distract you long ­– just a quick note from me to wish you a very Merry Christmas. This year has been eventful to say the least,…

I was lucky to escape the second “official” lockdown with my little escapade to Stockholm. But I’m not sure how long I’ll be staying in the UK, so long as the lockdowns persist. I’ve a mind to seek my fortune…

Something a little different in today’s note. Today’s Capital & Conflict is a postcard of sorts, from our company’s founding father – Bill Bonner – living out on his ranch in Argentina. Many of you will be familiar with Bill’s…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If you thought 2020 was bad, wait until it turns 21 and starts drinking” – some American Christmas ain’t far… Hogmanay ain’t far… as we reach the end of the week, it’s becoming suddenly very apparent that…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well there goes the Quantitative Ease Double IPA! I told you you’d need to act fast yesterday – by the evening it was all sold out. To those who managed to snatch a few bottles, I hope…

ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The small microphone that loops around his ear is hovering before his mouth like a fluffy ball of cotton. With a nod from the video crew, he takes to the stage. “Hello everyone. Thank you for all…

Available Now! ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Home once more. Following an uneventful return trip from Sweden, I’m back at the helm of Capital & Conflict. I hope Nathan Tipping and Will Dahl have been keeping you entertained in my absence –…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As I went for a walk yesterday evening, I heard warm notes of music drift through the chilly air. I wandered towards the cheery sound, and discovered a brass band had gathered to play outside the supermarket…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – A short note from me today, I’m just about to go live with our quarterly conference call for subscribers to The Price Report with Tim Price. Tim has always been an outspoken character – but I’ve never…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Happy hump day! A quick note before we begin: further to yesterday’s note, I want to know what your predictions are for 2021 – investment related, but not necessarily stock specific. Let me know here, and I’ll…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As 2020 winds to a close, it’s beginning to give me déjà vu. Everything has begun to feel 2017 all over again. Remember that year? Back when “Article 50” was plastered all over the press instead of…

HALF WAY INN, STOCKHOLM – Almost December, huh? This year has flown by faster for me than any other I can remember. Perhaps it’s a good thing that 2020 is “getting itself over with” so we can crack on with…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Of all the gold coins I’ve got, this one’s my favourite: Source: BullionStar Of all the designs the Royal Mint has stamped on gold and silver Britannias, it’s yet to surpass this one from 2003 in my…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – The last time the Nikkei was this high, I hadn’t been born yet. Source: Fuller Treacy Money We’re a way off that ‘89 all-time high… but if the market has taught us anything this year, it’s that…

THE ARDBEG EMBASSY, STOCKHOLM – Turns out the Swedes aren’t half bad at distilling whisky. What they are bad at is charging an affordable price for it. Though perhaps I shouldn’t blame the Swedes. This establishment is after all owned…

ESPRESSO HOUSE, STOCKHOLM – A new week beckons: let’s start it off with the results… Looks like most of you think bitcoin does have at least some value – though there’s a significant minority who think it doesn’t. Fascinatingly, the…

SOUTHSIDE PUB, STOCKHOLM – Ahoy from a faraway watering hole. They serve Guinness here and there’s a vending machine for Camel cigarettes, so it’s about as close to paradise as a man can get. It’s sleeting outside but nice and…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – It’s all so damned… banal. Source: The Telegraph Our monetary oracle has spoken. Behold his wisdom. From The Telegraph: A widely used digital currency could pave the way for negative interest rates by making it harder to…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – I told you this’d be coming yesterday… I’ve been banging on about bitcoin for a fair while now, but I want to know your thoughts on the matter. I was wondering how specific I should be with…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Following on from yesterday’s rather alarming chart, I thought I’d continue today with another one, this time courtesy of Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter Wealth Builder. Source: Bloomberg What you’re looking at there is…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Let’s start the week off with an alarming chart to get the juices flowing, shall we? This one certainly makes me nervous: Source: Google Trends That’s global Google search popularity for a certain word (indexed, so most…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – There’s not even a flicker of hesitation in their eyes. Unflinching, unconscious of the awkward guarded manoeuvres now practiced in blighty… the Swedes squeeze past you on a supermarket shopping aisle. It’s strange how something that was…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – “So Pfizer waits until two days after a disputed election is “called” for Biden and six days after the election itself to release details [of a vaccine] they’ve probably had for weeks? Well, nothing to see here…”…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – “Greatness from small beginnings” – or more literally – “Great things, from small things” was the motto of Sir Francis Drake. Emblazoned on the coat of arms he was granted by Elizabeth I, sic parvis magna was…

SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Not a mask in sight. The pubs and restaurants are busy – often full. But the teetotaller lobby in government has a monopoly on the sale of all booze above 3.5% ABV, and taxes it to high…

TERMINAL 1, MANCHESTER AIRPORT – Remember, remember, the fifth of November… or don’t. Her Majesty’s government certainly seems to be having trouble with it. It’s ironic that tomorrow’s lockdown across England kicks off on Guy Fawkes Day. Especially now that…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Prior to his presidency, way back in 2015, Donald Trump tweeted – amongst many other things – that it is “often to your advantage to be underestimated”. (Not “misunderestimated” of course – you’d have to ask George…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “A Tory MP, a Labour MP and an SNP MP go into a pub. And shut it down.” – Tim Price Once more into the pubs dear friends, once more. They need the business, the…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Donald Trump has desecrated the values that make America a beacon to the world. Joe Biden is a good man who would restore steadiness and civility to the White House. If The Economist had a vote, it…

THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – Got a new paperweight in the mail the other day. Makes for a decent coaster, too. In theory, I could deposit this giant coin at a bank, and see a mighty +£10 be credited to…

ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – A nice chart to start us off with today. While it’s no surprise where investors have placed their money in the stockmarket this year, the sheer degree to which they have shunned everything except tech stocks is…

Some of you may remember today’s letter, which I first wrote back in April. I’m re-publishing it today as I’m currently working on a related little side project which needs a bit more polish. While April feels like an awfully…

We continue with the second half of our short report on the return of inflation. If you haven’t read part I yet, you can find it on the website here. Tomorrow, you’ll be hearing from a new member of the…

I’ll be away from Capital & Conflict for the next few of days – I’m currently working on an exciting side project behind the scenes that needs a bit more polish before I can share it with you. I’ll be…

THE ARTISAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Children have one kind of silliness, as you know, and grown-ups have another kind” – C.S. Lewis May I present, dear reader, the other kind: Italian government borrowing costs back below zero, and heading lower In…

THE ARTISAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – Almost a fifth of all the US dollars in existence were created this year. Quite an achievement, that. Considering the world’s dependency on greenbacks to do business – using pictures of Benjamin Franklin to do all…

THE NAVIGATION INN, STAFFORDSHIRE – “No interest? No problem!” So cry investors as the Italian government beats them bloody with a brand new stick: the zero-coupon bond. While it’s the first time the Italian government has been able to get…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Stuff it under your mattress and you’ll make more interest” bellows a voice from across the pub. The suggestion is addressed to a gentleman seated on the opposite side of the room who’s been trying…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Sunshine, on my shoulders, makes me happy…” I doubt John Denver would be very chuffed were he living in the UK these days (or ever), given our weather. But the great musician’s music is likely…

THE HYDRO, DERBYSHIRE – Well the cat’s out of the bag now… If you haven’t seen yesterday’s announcement yet, I suggest you do so now.  That marks one of the largest events in the history of this company – certainly…

53 DEGREES NORTH, DERBYSHIRE – “I should tell you to leave Sir. But tonight, I’d like you to keep on drinking.” Sadly, this is not something I’ve been told by any barmen on my ongoing voyage through English pubs. It…

BUXTON BREWERY CELLAR, DERBYSHIRE – Is this chart a fifth full, or a fifth empty? Look there, on the bottom right – is this cause for optimism, or pessimism? Source: The Market Ear The city that never sleeps is looking…

THE PALACE HOTEL, DERBYSHIRE – “Don’t ever remember three straight days of torrential rain – the canal is an inch from bursting its banks.” I like a bit of rain (you learn to in Aberdeen), so I’ve been quite enjoying…

THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Whenever I tweet, some call it a tirade. Totally dishonest!” – Donald Trump, 11 November 2012 (punctuation adjusted) To some, it is a tirade. To others it is a lullaby, a constant reassurance that a…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – Let’s start October and the sunset of the year with something optimistic, shall we? I have good news. Nay, that’s too mild – I have reason to rejoice, true cause for celebration… You see, I’ve…

THE STAR, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It’s always fun throwing bombs into lakes.” Tim Price is a friend to furore. He made that quip after we finished a conference call for his readers at The Price Report yesterday, and I was commending…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – I can’t promise that you’ll agree with everything you’re about to read. Especially if yesterday’s poll is to be trusted. But we wouldn’t be doing our job if we weren’t challenging your views on investing,…

THE RUTLAND ARMS, DERBYSHIRE – “I feel like Adam” reads a message from a friend. “I live in the garden of Eden, but I cannot partake of the fruits…” The fella in question is a university student in Edinburgh –…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Something very important, and indeed society changing, may come out of the Ebola epidemic that will be a very good thing: NO SHAKING HANDS!” – Donald Trump, 4 October 2014 He was ahead of his…

THE JUNCTION INN, STAFFORDSHIRE – Once more into the pub dear friends, once more! While we still can… I’m glad I’m not in London at the moment as the new anti-WuFlu measures come into force. Or Scotland for that matter,…

THE ECCLIAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – A hot air balloon hangs above the horizon like a dreamcatcher for the county. And the last squeezes of sunshine the season has to offer linger warm in the air. It’s a fine day indeed. And…

THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “[MI6] told me about honey-traps and warned me that the Chinese secret service often use women to entice men to bed to get information. I didn’t think for one minute that I would fall for…

THE BELL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It all sounds a bit like the man who jumped off the top of a skyscraper and said as he passed each floor on the way down ~ ‘So far, so good’…” A reader responds to…

THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Are they going to the Bermuda Triangle?” “Bitchcraft”, a (presumably) pseudonymous Twitter user in Brazil, asks a fair question. With a chart like this, you have to wonder exactly where Singapore Airlines is flying people…

THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It’s like he’s consistently lucky. Which means there’s something we’re not getting…” So remarked our energy analyst Kit Winder to me the other day (via text). He was describing the performance of Sam Curran, a…

Well dear reader, The results are in. … and it ain’t looking good for Joe Biden: Thank you for all who voted in our election poll – the more of these polls we do, the more of you seem to…

Just look at this thing: Tripling since the lows of 2016, the mighty Nasdaq index stands tall. The WuFlu has not been a hinderance; quite the opposite. It’s acted as an accelerant, like some kind of performance-enhancing drug. A steroid…

Happy hump day, dear reader. I told you yesterday this poll was coming… Who do you reckon will win the US election? I want to know what the Capital & Conflict readership thinks. I’m not asking who will win the…

I often come across pieces of editorial written by my colleagues that are so good that I feel compelled to share them only to remember that I cannot, for it wouldn’t be fair on their paying subscribers. I make exceptions…

To start us off, here’s some light relief to brighten your day: Source: Twitter There’s a lot to unpack in there; we could go down several different routes on the subject of negative interest rates and the European Central Bank’s…

I have some bad news. That’s if you like gold, at least. If you hate gold, this is probably great news; a ray of sunshine to brighten your day. And if you’re neutral about gold, perhaps this’ll just add some…

Gold, silver, or bitcoin… if you had to hold only one of these assets for the next decade, which one would you choose? That’s what I asked you last week. The results have since come back, and it turns out……

Let’s start the week with an energy crisis, shall we? I can’t have been the only one in dire need of coffee this morning… The phrase “skyrocketing gas prices” may bring images of the 1970s to mind. Global energy supplies…

“What do ye do when ye see a whale, men?” “Sing out for him!” was the impulsive rejoinder from a score of clubbed voices. “Good!” cried Ahab, with a wild approval in his tones; observing the hearty animation into which…

I’ve a story for you today – a deceptive one. Some might call it an investing success. Others might think it a failure. I’ll let you be the judge. It starts with a precious metal called palladium. While that name…

Happy hump day. Now imagine… It’s 19 August 2030. You wake up and stretch, and then immediately summon a screen to check your investment portfolio. A decade previously, an obscure investment writer on the internet challenged you to buy one…

It’s been a long time since I began working here at Southbank Investment Research, dear reader. … Or at least, it feels like it. In reality it’s been three years and a couple of months. I’ve changed a lot during…

Well dear reader, the results are in. This week, we’ve been exploring the prospect of another nationwide lockdown brought about by a second wave of WuFlu. It’s a heavily consequential matter for our lives, let alone our investment portfolios. And…

An old buddy of mine in Aberdeen was formally diagnosed with the WuFlu yesterday. He’s the only person I know to have actually tested positive, and not just exhibited symptoms which led them to conclude they had it. While several…

Dear Reader, Happy Hump Day. That storm sure arrived soon enough. Thunder is grumbling constantly from the horizon as I write this, and the dark clouds are coming closer – but it’s not hit me yet. I’ve not seen any…

It’s damn near sweltering here in London. Tropical weather, humid as hell. Inside or out, the heat feels inescapable. And the moist air clings to your form wherever you go. It’s like we’ve started importing foreign weather now that we…

I’m about to show you one of the boldest, strangest financial images I have ever seen. To be honest with you, I’m still not entirely sure what to make of it. When I first came across it, I laughed aloud…

Silver, which just had its best month in 40 years… has started the current month with its best week in 40 years. I was planning on showing you a couple of charts today already, but I’m just going to show…

I must confess dear reader, I had not heard of the band named Spandau Ballet until this week. It was only after I received the rather… cryptic series of texts above that I discovered the group and its 1983 hit…

Ever heard of the Vladimir Club, dear reader? It’s a real exclusive outfit. No riff-raff allowed. If you’re a member, you’ve probably got vaults in your name in Switzerland, a Learjet service on speed-dial, and a wine cellar big enough…

Ouch. The ol’ business of banking is taking a beating. HSBC is in the process of cutting 35,000 jobs and setting aside $8-$12 billion to absorb losses from WuFlu-related defaults. The popular portfolio holding has now fallen beneath the level…

“Our founders would not bow before a king. Nor should we bow before the emperors of the online economy.” – David Cicilline, US congressman for Rhode Island The emperors of Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon appeared before the US House…

Dear reader, I- Hmmm. So, uh… you remember that company that used to make cameras when you were a kid? Kodak? Apparently it uh… makes drugs now. Got three-quarters of a billion dollars as a loan from the US government…

Happy hump day, dear reader. I commented in yesterday’s note how the silver market had gone wild in the middle of the night – turns out some of you were involved! As one reader writes in: So, Boaz, were you…

Have you been enjoying the weather, Reader? It’s been a damn rainy few days here in London – though it sounds like it’s the rest of the country that’s really got drookit. I must confess dear Reader, I’ve been loving…

Ready for another market rodeo? We spent a fair bit of time on the action in gold silver last week – both exploded in price, with the former finally making it past its all-time high in dollars it hit in…

So here we are again dear reader, at the end of another wild week. It’s been a barnstormer for precious metals, as we’ve been writing about in recent days. We’re also seeing further signs of exhaustion in the tech sector,…

Source: Austrian Mint The Merry Men of Sherwood Forest Silicon Valley will not be making their way to our shores after all… I’ve speculated a couple of times in this letter what might happen to the British stockmarket if Robinhood,…

There’s something about silver that drives certain individuals nuts. If gold was the metal that drove the conquistadors mad, in recent decades silver has had the power to induce near-psychotic states among its holders. I almost wrote “investors”, but that…

“… If society could solve all its problems by printing money, the Roman Empire would rule the world.” – Fringe news aggregator Zero Hedge, addressing the Federal Reserve That line came to mind as I was wandering over what remains…

Happy hump day, Reader, And what a hump it is that we’re cresting. Charlie Morris, who had billions of pounds under his management when he was head of absolute returns at HSBC, described Tuesday to be “a memorable day in…

The year of our Lord two thousand and twenty just keeps on delivering the goods. Remember this chart of Tesla I showed you a month ago (A Looney Tune you don’t want to miss – 10 June)? Source: me, on…

A buddy of mine has had enough – he’s getting out of here. It was the first time we’d seen each other since the lockdown began. I could tell he was somewhat different when I met him, and not just…

A few weeks back on our market broadcasts we discussed how the cybersecurity sector was booming amid the lockdown. I use interest in the $HACK ETF to gauge interest in the sector, and it’s now reached all-time highs, up over…

Is this what a market top looks like? Source: Hao Hong, on Twitter When watching the market becomes not just a recreational, but a relaxing activity… you have to assume that the market must have moved in a direction which…

I asked you last week how it might be possible to buy four pints of bitter and fish and chips with change to spare from a single pound coin. Many of you wrote in with the answer I had in…

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season…

It felt odd going back to the pub after three months of drinking in private. But it got much weirder after a stranger began speaking to me about my hat. I was standing in the queue outside with my girlfriend….

Guess when this magazine cover was printed: Any ideas? Bloomberg bought BusinessWeek at the end of 2009, and the design is clearly quite dated… but pretty much all of those stories could be written today. Billions are flowing into index…

Two more days. Just two more days until the pubs open. Anticipation keeps building for a return to pub life. But when the doors finally do open on Independence Day… how expensive will a pint be? During the lockdown, we’ve…

Happy hump day, reader, To the reader who is asking, I am indeed in need of a shave. But back to that in a minute. I always enjoy looking through my mailbox to read your feedback on my scribblings (for…

We had a hut by the river with my brother Chekaren. We were sleeping. Suddenly we both woke up at the same time. Somebody shoved us. We heard whistling and felt strong wind. Chekaren said, ‘Can you hear all those…

At the beginning of this year, we published the most disturbing piece of research I’ve ever worked on here at Southbank Investment Research. It was about the crimes against humanity the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been perpetrating against its…

The pubs beckon. Independence Day awaits. Just a few more days… but a busy few, that’s for sure. And as I mentioned last week, we’re about to publish the monthly issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert on the…

As we’ve reached the end of yet another wild week, I reached out to macro specialist Nickolai Hubble and our energy analyst Kit Winder to discuss the stories they’re keeping a close eye on. In our final broadcast of the…

We’ve been writing about inflation this week. About that brutally destructive force, the bane of savers and investors alike, but especially cruel to the poorest in our society. It’s currently being administered to the everyman in a dose that’s just…

Go to the fringes of the investing world and you will find individuals with unconventional approaches, strong alternative opinions, or both. There are various topics around which these strong opinions are formed: gold, the accuracy of various economic schools of…

In yesterday’s note, we explored how inflation – almost forgotten as a threat by mainstream investors – may finally be brewing in the background, ready to return and wreak havoc. Now that it’s not just central banks stuffing money into…

1963. The decade that would be remembered as the swinging 60s had begun to earn its namesake. ‘63 saw the release of The Beatles’ first album (Please, Please Me), The Rolling Stones’ first single (a cover of Chuck Berry’s Come…

Make way, dear reader, make way! Make way… For King Benjamin Franklin! Behold, there he strides, in all his greenbacked glory… The US attracts all manner of international condemnation these days – criticism of its culture, of its endless wars…

As lockdown has dragged on and on, some folks have been hankering for a big ol’ fireworks display when it’s finally over. It’s quite understandable, especially for those in high-pressure jobs. Stuck alone indoors breathing stagnant air, you couldn’t really…

Who better to express “animal spirits” in the market than kids entering their teenage years? We’ve written quite a few times about the commission-free trading app in the States called Robinhood, which is very popular amongst youngsters. Now this was…

My colleague Nickolai Hubble has always told me one of the joys he has in his role in publishing his research is seeing his predictions play out in the news months later. It’s something I expect James Allen has been…

There’s a lot of trash in the European banks. A lot of loans that shouldn’t have been made. Loans where there hasn’t been a payment of interest or principal for… well, a while. Best not dwell on that. Let’s just…

Why have bankrupt companies become some of the biggest performers in the stockmarket in recent weeks? Could Robinhood, the trading app popular amongst kids in the States, be swooping in to save the day with a bailout of millennial capital?…

“I know this defies the law of gravity, but I never studied law!” – Bugs Bunny in High Diving Hare (1945) You might think that when a company starts exploring the possibility of declaring bankruptcy, that its share price would…

We went from a 2008 collapse to a 1999 stock bubble in under three months. – Chris Cole, Hedge fund manager earlier in the week Late last year, our publisher Nick O’Connor asked all of us editors at Southbank Investment…

A quick heads up: our broadcast schedule is changing slightly from this week forwards – we’re shifting from a daily broadcast to three per week. With a more streamlined schedule, we hope to provide you with more incisive content going…

Another week of chaos begins… With any luck, we’ll be able to go to the pub again soon – provided we identify as protestors first, of course. How times change. It wasn’t long ago that self-righteous moralists declared that flouting…

“Gold. Gold beyond measure, beyond sorrow and grief… Behold, the great treasure hoard of Thrór! the global ETF market!” – The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (2014, script slightly altered) I wasn’t a big fan of the The…

“We are the good guys. We are on the side of angels.” – Jeff Skilling, slightly less than three years prior to his arrest 2020 just keeps on getting better… Jeff Skilling, the former CEO of Enron who was released…

I’m back at the helm of Capital & Conflict and our daily market broadcasts. It’s been good to take a couple days off and get burned to hell by the impressively strong London sun, and indeed to give you a…

It wasn’t all that long ago that the price of a gold sovereign felt stuck around the £250 mark. Some days it’d be cheaper, some days it’d be more expensive… but between mid-2016 until May last year, the market’s idea…

In the meantime, I’d like to show you a note Akhil Patel recently wrote for his subscribers over at Cycles, Trends and Forecasts. It’s about the historical “war cycle” we discussed on Friday’s market broadcast, a topic both fascinating and…

Well there we have it. As we wrote in Tuesday’s note (The Bond girl, the Cuban icon, and the man from Dixieland), we were watching the dollar for its next move. If it broke higher in value, it’d be bad…

It’s time for a look through the postbox. It’s been a while since we’ve had a good rummage through my mailbox at [email protected]. I’ve been somewhat distracted with hosting our daily market broadcasts and all the wild events we’ve seen…

Has the storm passed? Are happy days here again? The fella from Cuba with a machete at his waist says so. The Bond girl lounging nearby agrees. But the fella from Dixieland… he’s still got a menacing look in his…

Well here we are [%= :subscriberName(D,Reader) %], Friday again. It doesn’t feel like a week has passed since I was writing to you last Friday. Though longer or shorter, I can’t tell – isolation has made my perception of time…

My perception of time is becoming increasingly distorted by the isolation… but it doesn’t feel all that long since our last bank holiday. Spending every day alone in my flat has made life a blur – as most weeks are…

We had long feared they would come. Watching the monetary corruption spread across foreign lands for so many years now, I guess we all knew, deep down, that they would arrive on British shores eventually. I had hoped we would…

It’s your last chance to celebrate it with a menthol Camel cigarette. From today on, all flavoured cigarettes and rolling tobacco are illegal to sell in this country. Get ‘em while you can. The rationale behind banning menthols is that…

Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve recently took to television to reassure the world that everything is, indeed, under control Gromit. While the Fed is of course the US’s central bank, his words are globally relevant to investors here in…

Between the years of 1714 and 1815 the Royal Navy went to battle every three weeks on average. A battle every three weeks… for 101 years. That’s a lot of fighting.   It’s a lot of gunpowder. A lot of…

“Way back”… in what feels like a year ago at the beginning of March, we noted how with every day that passed, a CEO of a major corporation was quitting their job. The exodus of executives was so great, that…

Behold the Wonder of this present Age, A Famous RIVER now become a Stage. Question not what I now declare to you, The Thames is now both Fair and Market too… And though these sights be to our admiration, Yet…

Well that’s that dear reader – The Halvening has happened. Block 630,000 was mined yesterday just after 8pm. The long-awaited block of transactoions only took 20 seconds in the end. It’ll be another few years before we see the next…

Back when sailcloth and gunpowder ruled the waves, and the oceans were rich with plunder and pirates chasing it, Her Majesty’s Government (amongst others) decided to try financing itself the same way Blackbeard did. It was called “privateering”, and was…

Why would somebody be mining bitcoin in a mosque? About a year ago now, some images started circulating on Twitter showing vast bitcoin mining arrays, racks upon racks of monitor-less computers whirring away in a place of worship: Source: @Rmahdavii,…

I hope you’re enjoying the bank holiday as much as you can during the lockdown. With the long weekend, and the highly anticipated “halvening” just a few days away now, I thought I’d send you something special. This is an…

When you’re stuck indoors all day, the imagination wanders more than usual. We rerun old memories like a cabinet of dusty video cassettes, taking respite in reveries of better times. Come with me, and remember back to this, four years…

My affinity with Long John Silver continues apace. A colleague tells me during a video conference call that I’m turning not grey, but ginger. And my trusty Holland & Holland baseball cap, extra-large to accommodate my dome, no longer fits…

JMW Turner, one of the greatest artists born in Britain, was a notoriously reclusive man. But it’s one of his finest works which has recently “gone into hiding”. The Fighting Temeraire, tugged to her last berth to be broken up,…

So here we are, at the end of another wild week. Another weekend in lockdown beckons… though according to Spotify ($SPOT), it’s earning money like it’s the weekend every day of the week. More than 30% more folks are turning…

“Realise your youth while you have it. Don’t squander the gold of your days, listening to the tedious, trying to improve the hopeless failure, or giving away your life to the ignorant, the common, and the vulgar. These are the…

A rather long note today. If you want to get right to The Two Thrones of the global economy, skip down to the next heading. If you want to meander down some rabbit holes with me first, just keep on…

Monday again, and we’re back in business. A new week beckons – and if it’s even a quarter as dramatic as last week, we’re in for a hell of a ride. While the crazy action of last week was contained…

Friday at last… I think. I find it hard to tell these days. All this staying at home has made the days a blur, I wouldn’t have been able to say it was Friday without checking. I often work on…

Too much oil is one thing… but no beer production is something else entirely. Some of the largest breweries in the world are facing a shortage of one crucial element required to brew their nectar. If left unchecked, a beer…

Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts… – Shah of Shahs, Ryszard Kapuściński (1982) Times have changed an awful lot since 1982….

The oil price in the US began Monday at $12. That’s pretty low. … But that didn’t stop it falling by 300% just a few hours later. Yes, you’re reading that right. The price of the most important commodity in…

I’m taking a short break from hosting our daily market broadcasts this week. My colleague Kit Winder will be hosting it in the meantime, focusing on how the WuFlu will permanently change the energy market. He’s never hosted a podcast…

Nobody wants to talk about this asset… but it’s been performing incredibly well during these wild times. It’s been in a bull market for years now. It wasn’t shook at all during the brutal March we’ve just had – indeed,…

Amid the WuFlu chaos… The escalating and ever more visible Second Cold War… The fiendishly volatile stockmarket… And as we all slowly go insane in isolation… We take a moment here in lockdown to admire something shiny in the sunlight….

“If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen ‘em all.” While this old saying may be true of Marvel films, it sadly does not apply to financial crises. They never arrive exactly the same way as they have in the past –…

Southbank Investment Research is shut today, but with everything going on out there and as it’s Eastertime, I thought we should send out something special in today’s note instead of my normal scribblings. Following the strong feedback we’ve had for…

Happy Easter Monday! I hope you’ve been enjoying the break as much as you can in these circumstances. I’ve been taking the time to get my thoughts in order, do some reading, and listen in to what the folks at…

An old buddy of mine contacted me yesterday asking what stocks he should buy now that the market has turned down. This very same friend contacted me at the very end of the crypto bull market to tell me he…

The ability of a gyroscope to remain stable no matter the forces at play around it has immense value.  That perpetual stability – rain or shine, chaos or serenity – has allowed engineers to create ever more complex systems around…

Who would win in a fight: former president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi… or freshly anointed governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey? I asked a few colleagues and contacts which of the central bankers they reckoned…

Somebody just got air-ambulanced nearby. The red chopper flew low over the rooftops with a mighty whirr, closer than any other aircraft I’ve seen whilst living here. All anyone could do is watch it through their windows like some metropolitan…

Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. – Shah of Shahs, Ryszard Kapuściński (1982) The chart speaks for itself. Source: me, on Twitter…

Is it just me, or did the day the pubs shut feel like an incredibly long time ago for you too? Seems like months since I’ve had a freshly poured pint in my hand. Let me tell you, when this…

Back when WuFlu was just a twinkle in some bat-eating deviant’s eye, I thought it’d be worth giving Seattle a visit. A reassuringly rainy area of the developed world with a strong beer culture and a view of the Pacific…

Remember when some fella attacked the bull sculpture on Wall Street with a banjo last year? We mentioned it in this letter at the time – The banjo player and the bull market golden calf (10 September 2019). We wondered…

You ever watch an American TV show or film and think they overdo it with the music? Just smothering scenes in slow piano when they’re trying to spur emotion in the viewer? I felt that when I was watching an…

I wish I was in Dixie, Hooray, Hooray In Dixieland I’ll take my stand, to live and die in Dixie Away, Away, Away down South in Dixie… – “I Wish I Was in Dixie” (1850s) You wouldn’t expect an old…

I’m sorry for not getting in touch with you about this sooner. What’s going on here is really quite something. Last week I wrote about how the price of precious metals and the cost of actually acquiring them are decoupling,…

Well that was it, dear reader. “Whatever it takes” indeed. Mario Draghi’s statement, which is credited with saving the euro back in the sovereign debt crisis, has been taken to heart – and to market – by the Federal Reserve….

“You’ll find, young man, the future looks rosier through the bottom of a glass.” – The Three Musketeers by Alexandre Dumas With the pubs shut, British investors are going to have a harder time imagining a rosy future – right…

If you’ve been listening to our daily market broadcasts this week, you’ll have heard Charlie Morris’s unbridled optimism in the . To close us off for this week, he penned this note for me recently on what’s going on in…

I asked Tim Price to write today’s Capital & Conflict, as he’s just the man you want in your corner during a market panic like we’re witnessing now. Tim has won awards as a fund manager for his defensive investing style, and…

The US stockmarket was halted just 30 seconds after opening yesterday. Couldn’t even survive a minute before eating a 7% loss. And that was after the Federal Reserve threw the sink at the problem, cutting interest rates to zero and…

The global stockmarket (MSCI World index, three-year chart) gets a front-row seat to a viewing of Leonardo DiCaprio’s The Revenant “Honestly I think every national politician is going to get CV-19. Their lives are a series of meetings like this,…

Let me be frank. By the time you read this, I have no idea where the market will be for almost any asset. The volatility and speed with which they are moving as I write makes it almost impossible to…

It was only a matter of time. The Bank of England (BoE) took it upon itself to cut interest rates, following the Americans’ example of a double-cut, reducing the BoE base rate by 0.5% down to 0.25%. They’re meeting again…

The CNN Fear & Greed index, which gauges the mood in the US stockmarket from utterly terrified at 0, and scandalously greedy at 100, is currently displaying a reading of… four. Fear is in fashion. But so far, the American…

“This is the best goddam drill the army’s ever put on!” – US Navy sailor at Pearl Harbor after the explosions began The bull market is dead. Long live the bull market. That’s the FTSE 100 well into the bear’s…

So you’ve heard of Big Tobacco… Big Oil… Big Pharma… Big Tech… But what about Big Loo Roll? If anybody’s making a mint from the pandemic panic, it’s the toilet paper manufacturers. The Australians are eating each other over Andrex….

The most powerful bank CEO in the world had to have emergency heart surgery yesterday. I don’t blame him. I was going to write to you about something different today, but the level of sheer stress writhing within the financial…

“How did he die?”  “Your contact?” Mr Market?” *nods* “Not well.” – Casino Royale, opening scene (mildly edited) It’s “No Time to Die”… or to risk losing Chinese box office revenue. I may well be proven wrong on this, but…