Boaz Shoshan

Boaz Shoshan

When he trained to become a financial adviser, Boaz Shoshan earned a black mark against his name for asking too many questions. Having become disillusioned with the financial services industry, he joined Southbank Investment Research in 2017. The questions haven’t stopped.

Having ventured down many financial rabbit holes, Boaz now writes for Capital & Conflict and is the managing editor of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert. From gold to violins, bitcoin to cigars, and whisky to wine, Boaz’s investing interests are often to be found outside the financial system – despite being a qualified financial adviser.

  • The parting glass

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom VAUXHALL, LONDON – Well dear reader, we had a good run. But today marks the end of the line for Capital & Conflict. From here on out, this newsletter…

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  • I have to tell you something

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom HYDE PARK, LONDON – I have some bad news. Actually, it’s not that bad. It’s just a change. But it is something you should be aware of as a…

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  • Going live in 30 mins: on the trail of the “Capital Tsunami”

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past 25 years, investors have bought – on average – $115 million worth of stocks around the world every trading day. That comes to roughly $29 billion entering the stock market every year.

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  • Going live in half an hour…

    The US joins the Soviet Union, the British Empire, and a long list of ancient powers that were bested by this unforgiving country at the centre of the world. Is the sun now setting on America’s superpower status, just as it was for the Soviet Union?

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  • Celebrating fifty golden fiat years

    I hope this letter finds you in good health, and having a great Sunday. I don’t normally write to you on weekends, but felt I had to make an exception today. For today is a very special occasion – a 50-year anniversary, no less. And if you enjoy my scribblings to you at all, I reckon you won’t want to let it go unobserved.

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  • No true ₿itcoin

    Last week, I asked you if you were feeling bullish or bearish on bitcoin. It’s not the first time I’ve asked the readership of Capital & Conflict such a question, but with the market evolving so fast it’s worth keeping our intel fresh.

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  • The Great House/Ape dilemma

    But before we get to that, there’s a different question I’d like to ask you. This is the very question myself and Charlie Morris have been pondering for our latest issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert, going out tomorrow, and I’d love to know what you think.

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  • Black Tot Day

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – We must end the week on a sombre note. For tomorrow is a grave day indeed…

    It was in 1740 when the Royal Navy first formalised a daily rum ration for sailors aboard Her Majesty’s ships – what would become fondly known as “the tot”.

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  • £36 trillion whale

    Capital & Conflict – brought to you by Fortune & Freedom Watch the live stream this Friday We’ll be streaming our latest episode of Southbank Live on Friday at 10am here on YouTube – my guest this week is our…

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  • Bismarck’s forgotten legacy

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – “Whales” in capital markets – those individuals, funds and other players with enormous investment positions – are dangerous beasts.

    They can move markets with their trades, and if you get in their way, they can crush your portfolio.

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  • “You’ve been framed! pinged!”

    While I’m sure Her Majesty’s fine crew at the “Doughnut” in Cheltenham can trace my movements with ease, there’s something uniquely dystopian about willingly installing government surveillance tech on to one’s own electronics for “the greater good”, so I never installed the Test & Trace app.

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  • The quiet(er) crash

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Following our look at bitcoin last week, I thought I should show you this small roundtable recorded over at Fortune & Freedom on Friday – featuring Nigel Farage, Nickolai Hubble and our tech expert Sam Volkering.

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  • Dubble?

    As I said yesterday, from the amount of bearishness I’ve seen from market commentators in recent weeks, I’m feeling pretty bullish. But one must never fall prey to wishful thinking – and as I’m a BTC holder, I of course want the market to be strong.

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  • Was that the end of the crypto cycle?

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – Over the past few weeks I’ve seen several veterans of the crypto space utter a similar refrain. Something to the tune of “We had a good run folks – I’ll see you in four years’ time.”

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  • What’s with the squid?

    CHEDDAR, SOMERSET – What is it about the subject of finance that lends itself so much to squid metaphors?

    In 2010, Rolling Stone famously described Goldman Sachs as “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

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  • Smouldering statistics

    I hope you’ve been getting some decent weather, wherever you happen to be reading this. Sure is toasty out here – but as Nickolai Hubble will tell you, the temperature is rising even further in inflation statistics…

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  • Happy “Freedom Day”

    “Freedom In Name Only”, or FRINO, was the topic of our latest Fortune & Freedom podcast with Nickolai Hubble and Nigel Farage – while you’re celebrating our state-sanctioned “freedom”, I encourage you to give it a listen.

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  • Riot with a platinum lining

    PICCADILLY, MANCHESTER – Gold holds the crown as the metal which feeds on social unrest and distrust in authority. But I suspect it shall be its elder sister platinum which will soar if the chaos unfolding in South Africa persists…

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  • Grass Glass is always greener

    THE HOWFF, DUNDEE – Political agendas favouring renewable energy (such as the “Green New Deal” which we see touted in the States) are, like all political agendas, polarising issues. There was a time when investors could remain “above the fray”…

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  • Curse of the South Sea

    THE HOWFF, DUNDEE – There’s an old saying that “a rolling loan gathers no loss”. But the act of “rolling” debt – paying off old loans with freshly borrowed money – is neither cheap nor easy for most of us….

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  • Back in Basel

    THE GEORGE ORWELL, DUNDEE – In our first episode of Southbank Live, gold expert John Butler explained how the new banking rules known as Basel III could lead to deep structural changes in the gold market. You can watch it…

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  • A muddled historical medley

    GALLERY 48, DUNDEE – “History might be rhyming, but there are a lot of different songs being played at the same time” says Nickolai Hubble of the current investing environment. When looking forward into the 2020s, we wonder what market…

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  • Penny Fortune for the Guy?

    MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A few months ago in The Ultimate Philanthrope a reader suggested that Satoshi Nakamoto, the mystery man behind the creation of bitcoin, might be a modern-day Thomas Guy. Guy, a bookseller in the 1700s, made a fortune…

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  • The suppressed memories of central bankers

    MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Do you remember what happens after a housing bubble bursts? That’s what my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble would like to ask you in today’s letter – for it seems many have forgotten. But before we…

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  • To err is human…

    MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – A quick note before we begin today. I’ll be hosting an online event tomorrow with a very special guest. He’s an American CEO with quite the investment tale to tell, and if you’re interested in streamlining your…

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  • Tomorrow at 10am: Southbank Live Episode #2

    MARYFIELD, DUNDEE – Named “Fundee” by some, and “Scumdee” by others, the bonny city of Dundee has a polarising nature. I used to come here quite often when I was younger to visit friends who were studying at the universities…

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  • The bastards who make billions

    HOLBURN, ABERDEEN – Felix Rohatyn was quite a character. He possessed what he called a “refugee’s sense of value”, which he picked up while on the run from the Nazis. When France was invaded in 1940, his family fled from…

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  • The first episode of Southbank Live – what do you make of it?

    BROOMHILL, ABERDEEN – Back at the helm of Capital & Conflict once more – with something special to share as well. I hope you’ve been enjoying the market musings of Andrew Hutchings and Will Dahl in my absence – I’ve…

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  • An inconvenient debate

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH ­– My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble is no stranger to controversy. Truth be told, he likes to stir it quite a bit. This note he penned for Fortune & Freedom (click here to subscribe) is…

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  • Golden green

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Following the completion of our 2021 Gold Summit, we recorded a few bonus episodes for our Gold Stock Fortunes subscribers featuring an additional roster of gold experts. Nickolai Hubble spoiled his Fortune & Freedom readers (click…

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  • The Vomit of Midas and the TTTT

    THE BALMORAL, EDINBURGH – If you’d only been observing the revelry on the streets over the weekend (both day and night), you’d have thought Scotland had defeated England with extreme prejudice at the match on Friday. Still, a good result…

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  • Hey big spender

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – I’d been putting it off for so long… Looked steadily more ridiculous as the months have gone by… And been called a “pirate” (amongst other things) as a result… But it was finally time to get…

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  • Forbidden energy

    “A lethal dose to anyone within ten yards. Get it while it’s hot!” – Edge of Darkness (1985) NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Do I count any nuclear bulls amongst the readership? Anyone stacking uranium rods at home, or stuffing them…

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  • Solar Summer

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Edinburgh, like so many cities, looks its best in the sun. When the rays hit it just right, the sandstone skyline shines like gold. And shine it has over the past few days – we’ve had…

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  • The greenies respond in kind…

    THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – My good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble isn’t one for political correctness. As I like to say, he won’t screw a silencer on his speech. This might preclude him from various other professions and speaking opportunities,…

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  • The green gangrene

    THE MEADOWS, EDINBURGH – There’s been a bit of drama here at Southbank Investment Research of late. It’s about our Beyond Oil Summit which goes live on Wednesday (get access here if you haven’t signed up yet). The subject of…

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  • Third time’s the charm

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Our very first Beyond Oil Summit feels like a different epoch… but it was only last year. Our plans for the event, featuring first-class energy experts on the future of black gold, began at the very beginning…

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  • A drove of black gold bulls

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – Well, the results are in from Monday’s poll… And I must say, I’m a little surprised: A lot of oil bulls out there – nearly three quarters of respondents. And there I was thinking I had a…

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  • Searching for the Seven

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – They called them the Seven Sisters. Seven companies which ruled the world. It all began in August 1928, at a castle called Achnacarry. It’s in the Highlands, near Ben Nevis – about half an hour’s drive from…

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  • Beyond Black Gold

    STOCKBRIDGE, EDINBURGH – A short note from me this morning, I’m just off to interview a certain gold expert based in the microstate of Liechtenstein. This gold discussion will be the final instalment our 2021 Gold Summit – after the…

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  • Black gold’s fate

    “Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts obligingly up into the air and falls back…

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  • The crypto that was promised… delivered Down Under

    BROUGHTON, EDINBURGH – I have some bad news, dear reader: the Aussies have us beat. I’m not talking about the cricket. I can accept the weaponised autism of Steve Smith being a challenge (especially when sandpaper is involved). But when…

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  • Good paper/bad paper

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – What’s the best way of protecting yourself against inflation? Ask a group of investors, and you’ll get as many answers. Real estate, agriculture, woodland, gold, oil… many investors have a favourite “hard asset” up their sleeve…

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  • Bread for brains

    THE STANDING ORDER, EDINBURGH – It almost feels like things are getting back to normal here. Almost. The streets are thronging with folk. Not so many as pre-WuFlu, but it’s damn busy nonetheless. There are enough tourists on the Royal…

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  • Inflatuation, part III

    What follows is the third instalment of Nickolai Hubble’s Inflatuation series. In case you missed them, click here to read part I and part II. The real inflation hasn’t even started By Nickolai Hubble for Fortune & Freedom Welcome to…

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  • Inflatuation, part II

    What follows is the second instalment of Nickolai Hubble’s Inflatuation series. To read part I, click here. How inflation gets out of control By Nickolai Hubble for Fortune & Freedom Friday’s examination of inflation explained how I saw inflation coming…

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  • Inflatuation, part I

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Friday at last. A bank holiday weekend beckons… In the next few instalments of Capital & Conflict, I’d like to share a trilogy of works by my good friend and colleague Nickolai Hubble. Long-time readers know…

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  • The Ides of May

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – “My candle burns at both ends; It will not last the night; But ah, my foes, and oh, my friends— It gives a lovely light!”  Edna St Vincent Millay Apparently that was Roald Dahl’s motto. I…

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  • Will gold get “pounded”?

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – “Is this a big problem for us?” asks a reader. They point to a topic discussed during our recent Gold Summit: In your [Gold] Summit discussion with Eoin [Treacy], you predicted a substantial fall in the…

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  • What is the significance of the latest crypto washout? A grizzled veteran chimes in…

    NEW TOWN, EDINBURGH – Crypto crunch? It may as well be a breakfast cereal – for I’ve tasted it many a time. The carnage which has beset the crypto market over the past week has set the press screeching –…

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  • Brave or stupid?

    THE HANGING BAT, EDINBURGH – At long last, I’m back in my favourite pub. Edinburgh is pleasingly lively – not so beaten down by the lockdowns as I’d feared. It’s been a couple years since I’ve been back here, and…

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  • Packing “The Classics”

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – In yesterday’s note, a reader made the case against gold. Or more specifically, against investing in gold miners over the long term. While it may feel like inflation is here to stay, they argued, it will not…

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  • Inflation: passing fad, or lingering fancy?

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – On Monday I asked you if I’d made a grave error in dumping my company pension pot into the gold mining sector. If you’ve been reading this letter for even a short time, you’ll know I’m very…

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  • A folly of fortune

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Boaz, I don’t believe you, you’re not that stupid, it’s bullsh*t.” Would you mind telling me how you really feel, please? I must say, I’ve had a great time reading the responses to Monday’s note (see: Have…

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  • The false scent of Musk

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Remember when I said earlier in the year that – contrary to popular belief – it was inflation that was the big risk to the bitcoin rally? (See: The big risk to ₿itcoin – 8 January) Well,…

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  • Have I made a grave error?

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Back in Staffs – right on time for the pubs to start letting people inside again. I’ll see you at the pub later. In light of our 2021 Gold Summit, I think it’ll have to be a…

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  • The inflation question

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – How much inflation can you tolerate? What percentage of your savings are you willing to watch burn every year, “for the good of the economy?” 0%? 1%? 5%? Perhaps I shouldn’t be asking. After all, that…

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  • The bullion banknote

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Think you’d ever spend some of these? They’re called “Goldbacks”. That’s 24 carat gold, rolled thin as paper, and then insulated with even thinner layers of plastic. That’s the highest denomination Goldback there is: the 50….

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  • Golden Soda

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Right on cue as our 2021 Gold Summit heats up (don’t miss today’s Keynote Address), Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter Wealth Builder has recently turned even more bullish on the metal. He already…

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  • Blast from the past

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – The Statue of Liberty was arriving in New York Harbor… Mark Twain was publishing Adventures of Huckleberry Finn… Gilbert & Sullivan’s The Mikado was having its opening premiere at the Savoy in London… The first official…

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  • The cursed gold that doomed an empire

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – How much gold is too much? This is probably the wrong question to be asking in the current climate. If anything, your average investor should be asking themselves, how much gold is too little? I don’t…

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  • Got gold?

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Get gold,” urged Spanish King Ferdinand II of his ambitious explorers in 1511, “humanely if possible, but at all hazards – get gold.” They took the “getting gold” bit to heart. As for “humanely”, well… that…

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  • A Scottish Sterling Referendum

    Before we get on with today’s letter, a quick heads up – if you haven’t signed up yet to our 2021 Gold Summit, you should do so here. I’ve been working on it for several months now in preparation for…

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  • This white metal is booming – but which one?

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Can you guess what asset I’ve charted here? I’ll give you a clue – it’s a commodity. A hard, shiny one. It’s not gold, which we’ll come to in a minute. It’s one of gold’s siblings….

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  • Golden times are here once again…

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – Two years ago, we took a step into the unknown as a business with the launch of our 2019 Gold Summit. We hadn’t tried the format before, and we were unsure if it would be to…

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  • Fiat ²

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – If you own gold, it’s quite likely that you expect the banknotes in your wallet or purse to lose their value in the years to come. That’s certainly one of the reasons I own it –…

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  • The ultimate philanthrope

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – A dear reader writes in to complain… we’re stuck in a rut he says, and we need out: All of you at Southbank are going on & on about just one thing … Bitcoin, yet not…

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  • On the “real” price of a real asset

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Perhaps gold is cheap, just as it was in 1970 and 2000. I believe that this is the case.” … and so do I. That was Charlie Morris there in a recent update of The Fleet…

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  • Hiding in the money tree

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “We haven’t seen anything like this in the last five to ten years,” an American bullion dealer tells me over the phone. “But we’re still not seeing anywhere near the level of interest there was in…

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  • Golden cannibals

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – In yesterday’s note we took a look at how the hoards of gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have been steadily draining for the past several months. This is – intriguingly – in stark contrast to…

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  • What does silver know that gold doesn’t?

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – You exit your tent on the sound of war trumpets. The encampment is awash with panic. The enemy have been spotted advancing over the horizon – and they’re swarming towards your position. As commander of the…

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  • Who do you think is the real Satoshi?

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – “Is this a nightmare?” asks a dear reader… I’ve received some wild responses to my recent letters. Some read like a fever dream: Bitcoin is (in my opinion) an Illusion, caused by drinking too much alcohol…

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  • Final encore

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – We have now entered the final phase of the most important market cycle there is, writes our colleague Akhil Patel. The land cycle has crossed its final hurdle, passed its last stopping post (the “mid-cycle slowdown”),…

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  • The real reason we don’t hear from Satoshi any more…

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – I’ve finally figured it out. After years of struggle… endless debates, fights, and bickering… from rootless speculation to ludicrous allegation, in a seemingly bottomless pit of conjecture… I know who Satoshi Nakamoto is. The pseudonymous creator…

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  • The Orange ₿anknote

    WINDERMERE, LAKE DISTRICT – I gave this away as a gift recently. It’s a remarkable little piece of kit. No ordinary USB stick, this orange flash drive is a miniature treasure chest – with virtually no limit on capacity. You…

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  • Who the hell is Hugo Stinnes?

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – It’ll be a short note from me today. I’m adding the final touches to a project I’ve been working on behind the scenes for a while. I’ll be able to show you what’s been going on later…

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  • Dou₿le Trou₿le II

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – Last Friday in Dou₿le Trou₿le I showed you a note from my colleague Charlie Morris, where he illustrated just how extraordinary the phenomenon of bitcoin continually doubling in value is. He’d written that note at the beginning…

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  • Season of our alt-contentment

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – The doors to a speculator’s paradise have been thrown wide open. Rolling golden fields stretch into the distance. And those that dare explore this land seeking riches, risk ruin in equal measure… Yes, dear reader: it’s alt-season….

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  • “The Big Suck” continues…

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – There’s a chart I’d like to show you today. Just one. It’s the reason I don’t feel I can be bearish about bitcoin right now, despite all the hype… But first, some context. Remember The Big Suck…

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  • To the dreamer, the spoils

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – We took a closer look at the uncanny ability of bitcoin to double in value last week (Dou₿le Trou₿le – 9 April 2021). We’re only a whisker away now from seeing a 20th “doubling” for bitcoin now…

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  • Gold’s forgotten bear market

    God damn them all, I was told we’d cruise the seas for American gold, We’d fire no guns, Shed no tears… Now I’m a broken man on a Halifax pier, The last of Barrett’s Privateers… –  Barrett’s Privateers (unofficial anthem…

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  • Dou₿le Trou₿le

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – How many times do you reckon the price of bitcoin has doubled over the years? Bear in mind, bitcoin only began being traded for currency (and not for favours like pizza deliveries) in 2010. And where exactly…

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  • Superpower(ed) debt only lasts so long…

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – I told you you’d need to act fast… That entire batch of ₿lockhead amber ale sold out in 12 hours. My hopes that there might be some extra left for me to buy in a fortnight have…

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  • The crypto conundrum

    SOUTHWARK, LONDON – This can’t be normal, surely. Surely. Is it really time to buy bitcoin when there are adverts telling you to buy it on the London Underground? Conventional investing wisdom would suggest the opposite. Ads for speculative investment…

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  • At long last… it is here

    Available now – while stocks last! SOUTHWARK, LONDON – Well, here I am, back in the capital, for a little while at least. How long I’ll stay, I’m not sure just yet. I’m in town to do some work on…

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  • Save the $ROOs

    SOMEWHERE ON THE ABERDEEN-LONDON LINE – I hope you had a good Easter. With the Ides of March now over and the re-opening now imminent (hopefully), we wonder what delights await investors in the second quarter of 2021. A couple…

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  • Miss Moneypenny Madame Moneyprinter

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Which of the major central bankers would come out on top in a bar brawl is a heavily under-discussed topic amongst investors. The top contender – by my humble estimation at least – used to be burly…

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  • Market, market, on the wall… who is the smartest of them all?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Who would you trust more? A bond investor telling you they feel something is off… or a stock investor telling you everything is hunky-dory? You’ll often hear it said that “bond guys are smarter that stock guys”…

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  • Coming soon…

    Available 6 April at Cheddar Ales ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – One of the primary perks of being editor of this letter is being able to engage with the readership. As you can probably tell if you read Capital & Conflict often,…

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  • Trend of the century?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The Suez Canal traffic jam is easing. The Ever Given is free at last, and not only of its recently earned nickname the “Never Given Way”… In recent issues of this letter (Beached in particular) we’ve pondered…

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  • Warren Buffett’s Dominion

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The energy sector has been a hotbed of market unrest over the past year: a constantly evolving, volatile warzone enriching and ruining investors in equal measure. Last April negative oil prices busted on to the scene for…

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  • Hard right, hot coffee, scarce cycles

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The beached whale ain’t budging. The Ever Given remains stubbornly lodged in the middle of the Suez Canal. And the traffic jam is now close to some 240 vessels long… And that’s just in the jam itself….

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  • Bringing oil to the boil

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – We examined the spectacle of the Ever Given yesterday, the 200,000 tonne container vessel blocking the Suez Canal. As of this morning, it remains wedged in place, creating a traffic jam in global trade 150 vessels long…

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  • Beached

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If your travel today involves the Suez Canal, there will be a slight detour around Africa…” Source: Twitter Talk about a spot of bad parking. As of this morning, the 200,000 tonne Ever Given (which some believe…

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  • Fiat nihil!

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’m afraid it’ll be another short note from me today – I’ve been called away to conduct an interview with a certain globe-trotting market expert as part of a broader event we’re planning for you. This video…

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  • An unlikely legacy

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A short note from me today -there’s a project I’m working on behind the scenes that demands much of my attention. We’re keeping it under wraps at the moment, but I’m looking forward to sharing it with…

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  • Kryptonite Cryptonite

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Let’s have a little rummage through the postbox as we end for the week… I received many responses to Red Collapso last week. As bitcoin rises in value, the question of how governments will respond to it…

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  • The hidden hunger

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – During the period running from Sunday to Tuesday, over a billion dollars were lost in an event which keeps recurring. It’s almost like clockwork. That’s the third time this year this has happened by my count, and…

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  • The silver sovereign

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Happy St Patrick’s day! While I’d love to join you with a Guinness (Lord knows I’ve drank enough of them in recent days), I’m afraid I’ll be staying dry tonight. My beer fast for Lent has finally…

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  • Hot crop: what is driving the boom in these commodities?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The inflation key is in the lock. It will be turned once the world economy fully reopens. And when that happens, Western investors will be caught unawares by the destructive nature of that force which they haven’t…

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  • Black gold²

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I told you about my bullish view on oil last week – I think we’re due $100 a barrel this year. Further to that note, there’s a snippet of research from Charlie Morris over at The Fleet…

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  • My goodness, my Guinness gold!

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – As the week draws to a close, I thought we should finish it off with a chart. And not just any old chart either – this has recently become my favourite chart of the gold price. I…

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  • Red Collapso

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “My Son-in-law has just bought ‘A Dummies guide to Bitcoin’” writes a reader. “I didn’t say anything, but headed towards the drinks cabinet for a large glass of ‘Red Collapso’”… Bitcoin ain’t for everyone, that’s for sure….

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  • Buy on the sound of cannons drone strikes

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I took a wander downtown the other evening. I needed some fresh air, and I was curious to see how the high street is looking like these days. We’re all pretty used to the sight of desolate…

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  • An untold fortune at the final frontier

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – You won’t come across something like this every day. Of that, I’m almost certain. Here at Southbank Investment Research, the editorial team like to do a lot of reading – especially on fringe financial subjects which may…

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  • BTC on the precipice, Welsh gold on offer, and the beer-only diet

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Last week, I asked you if you think the bitcoin price has peaked, or if the bull market still has more juice in the tank (Power Games – 4 March). Is it all downhill from here, or…

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  • The sword in the stone… soon to be drawn?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I feel like I’ve opened a Pandora’s box. When I asked the readership for a suitable collective noun for gold sovereigns, I didn’t expect such a sustained response. Even after Tuesday’s note where I settled on “splendour”,…

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  • Power games

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’m keenly aware that I’ve been bumbling on about bitcoin very frequently in this letter, monopolising our conversation and without giving you a moment to speak on the subject. I want to know your views. Even if…

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  • Satoshi’s last move

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. To my eyes, it can only go one of two ways – we’re on the cusp of either a parabolic blow-off top, or a bear market back to the likes…

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  • Fill in the blank: a _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ of sovereigns

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So what is the collective noun for gold sovereigns? What word should we use to describe a collection of Britain’s benchmark gold coin? I wondered this aloud in Friday’s note where we took a look at the…

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  • Viva Americana

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s somewhat fitting that as we approach “The Ides of March”, a deadline in the Roman calendar for the repayment of debts, that debt is beginning to matter for markets. A little while ago in Rumblings of…

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  • Evaporating aurum

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s coming up to a year now since the WuFlu “metal famine”, when it became nearly impossible to obtain gold or silver from bullion dealers. Remarkably, the situation today feels very similar… Last March, the supply chain…

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  • The Sovereign and the Satoshi

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – It’s going to be a long Lent this year. To make lockdown more interesting, I decided to give up food. I’ve long been enthralled by the story of Bavarian monks in the 1600s who stopped eating during…

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  • Celebrating bitcoin at $50k with a special edition “cryptocast”

    In light of bitcoin passing the incredible milestone of $50k per BTC, it’s time to rally the troops and reassess our position. Where do we go from here? Is this the top of the latest crypto-boom, or are we only…

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  • Rumblings of a rout?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Another old schoolmate contacted me out of the blue the other day to ask me if he should buy bitcoin. And now even Peter Schiff, notorious for his hatred of bitcoin, is talking about $100k BTC prices:…

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  • Canary in the commodity mine

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Any ideas what this is? It’s a pretty straightforward chart, that’s for sure: I know plenty amongst the Capital & Conflict readership like their metals, so I suspect that chart may be familiar to some of you….

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  • The supermodel trade

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A month ago, I told you how a buddy of mine was getting into bitcoin, and how I feared this might be a classic sign of a market top (What should Nixon have done in 1971? –…

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  • Rock of ages

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The year was 1862. Lewis Carroll was writing Alice in Wonderland in Oxford… America was alight, burning with a Civil War… … and the French were getting close to pasteurising milk. The Oil Age was in its…

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  • No man’s rally

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well I must say, the timing of my note on Monday (Party at the frontier) wasn’t the best. My prediction that we were about to experience an alt-season, where bitcoin will take a step back and other…

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  • Crack-up ₿oom?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’ve something a bit different for you today. Following yesterday’s note where I speculated we’re on the cusp of another grand “alt-season” in the cryptocurrency space, I thought I’d share a snippet from our latest issue of…

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  • Party at the frontier

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – We’ve had a fair bit of snowfall over the last few days. It’s nothing extreme – it’s not piling up high on the pavement – but it is damn chilly, and enough to remind everybody that we…

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  • Cat on a keyboard, or billion-dollar cheque?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If I told you, I’d have to kill you,” he said gravely, wine glass in hand. It was the summer of 2017. I was in the Royal Automobile Club on Pall Mall, where Charlie Morris had just…

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  • ₤OCK/K€Y

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I was given a set of lockpicks for my birthday a few years ago. I’d always wanted a set when I was a kid after reading one too many adventure novels, and a relative of mine thought…

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  • Robinwho?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Who is it that’s been pushing the price of silver around over the past week? They’re hooded for sure… but is it really Robin, the Prince of Thieves? Or does another, more mysterious individual stand under the…

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  • Preparing for overdrive

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – In yesterday’s note, I published a few responses I’ve received from the readership on the curious case of Tesla. Broadly speaking, most of the letters I received took a negative view on the company – or at…

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  • When the illusion fails to fool

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is it just me, or was that an incredibly long January? Hogmanay feels forever ago (though I’m sure it feels even longer than that for those who braved Dry January). A month can be an awfully long…

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  • The Plunger’s Inquisition

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – They’re calling it “The Capital Riot”. Over the pond, millennial militias are on the prowl. It’s patriotism run amok. They’re hunting down, brutalising and bankrupting all those suspected of committing the most anti-American activity of them all……

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  • Wile E. Musk

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – A reader writes in: I read your posts and you are often on the mark – thank you! I wonder if you have written about Tesla. To me this appears to be the greatest bubble of them…

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  • The Abominable 20

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “One of the greatest risks in investing is crowding. Where there is hype, there is danger. That’s not just for bitcoin, but true for financial markets. Turn that idea on its head, and the contrarian starts hunting…

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  • “The Big Suck”

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – I’ve a chart I’d like to show you today. Just one this time – and it’s a corker. But before we get to it, I’d like to provide a little context. In today’s letter I’d like to…

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  • Storm in a teacup tailpipe

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Anybody bought a new car recently? I don’t know anybody who’s used the lockdowns as an auto-shopping opportunity, but there’s gotta be some out there… I was struck by a statistic published recently that car sales fell…

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  • Romans 13 (trillion)

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Earlier this week, somebody decided to inscribe the bitcoin blockchain with a bible verse. “Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good – Romans 12:21” is embedded within a transaction on block 666,666, presumably…

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  • Lenin’s bayonet

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “I make the biggest efforts possible to not support the Chinese economy in any way. Supporting the economy is supporting the CCP. It’s crazy more people in the world are not standing up against this.” So says…

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  • $pilt ₿lood

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “Could this possibly be true?” a reader asks. It’s quite a question. They’re effectively asking if the price of one bitcoin could rise to $4.38 million. I must say, that is quite the price forecast. Bitcoin gets…

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  • Guns for lefties

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – 13 rounds in the magazine, plus one in the chamber. You could fire this thing 14 times without needing to reload. Only problem is, there’s a shortage of bullets due to a sudden surge in demand… A…

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  • Out of the pit

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Ever since last March, I’ve grown increasingly bullish on a certain investment. Now to be clear, I have adored this asset for a long time – you might call me something of a collector. But I believe…

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  • Fed Chair Thunberg

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is our interest in shiny bits of metal and magical internet money leaving our flank open to a major currency move? This reader thinks we might be blindsided: … everyone is predicting the Fed to carry on…

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  • What should Nixon have done in 1971?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – One of my personal contrarian indicators has begun to flash a warning… but can it be trusted? If you’ve been reading my scribblings for a while, you may well know the story about an old schoolfriend of…

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  • Where oh where is Rupert Bear Jack Ma?

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Finally, a nice strong pullback in the bitcoin price. Thousand-dollar increases in price every day are great fun, but unsustainable – this weekend’s drop down to $34k is cause for relief. I mentioned last week how the…

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  • Performance so strong it breaks the chart – and the hidden risk facing it

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “Here we go!! – insanity” read a message from a colleague out in the States yesterday. Attached was a screenshot of the bitcoin price, which had just hit the striking figure of $39,999.99. To think that less…

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  • Going ballistic ₿allooning

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Thirty-seven thousand dollars per bitcoin? Twenty-seven thousand pounds apiece? Why not. Why not? Watching bitcoin is like watching an art auction these days. The price just keeps going up, interrupted only by nervous pauses… and an ever-growing…

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  • The Night Trade

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So why is it that the bitcoin price only seems to go up at night? Why does it only rise between 10pm and 8am, like some kind of vampire? As we illustrated in yesterday’s note, the overwhelming…

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  • Dark horse in limelight

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Is bitcoin becoming a household name once again? While the subject of bitcoin will be familiar to both initiates and veterans of Capital & Conflict, something I noted frequently in this letter, both in 2019 and 2020,…

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  • Apollo 18

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – So here we are, at the dawn of 2021 AD. I hope you had a good Hogmanay – nothing too eventful for me this year due to lockdown restrictions, but I enjoyed it nonetheless. If you’re doing…

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  • Happy Hogmanay!

    I hope you’ve been enjoying some of our festive content while our office is shut for the holidays. Rest assured, normal service shall resume in January – but for today, I’d just like to wish you a very happy Hogmanay….

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  • ‘Tis the season

    I hope this email finds you enjoying the festivities in good health. I won’t distract you long ­– just a quick note from me to wish you a very Merry Christmas. This year has been eventful to say the least,…

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  • The Irish Escapist seeking rogue real estate

    I was lucky to escape the second “official” lockdown with my little escapade to Stockholm. But I’m not sure how long I’ll be staying in the UK, so long as the lockdowns persist. I’ve a mind to seek my fortune…

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  • “Meanwhile, back at the ranch…”

    Something a little different in today’s note. Today’s Capital & Conflict is a postcard of sorts, from our company’s founding father – Bill Bonner – living out on his ranch in Argentina. Many of you will be familiar with Bill’s…

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  • The Ides of March

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – “If you thought 2020 was bad, wait until it turns 21 and starts drinking” – some American Christmas ain’t far… Hogmanay ain’t far… as we reach the end of the week, it’s becoming suddenly very apparent that…

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  • ₿LACK OP$

    ABERDEED, SCOTLAND – Eighteen… Nineteen… Twenty… Twenty-one. Maybe even twenty-two? Hell, I’m hearing twenty-three from some places… But we’ll come back to that in a second. The Black Operation making a mint in lockdown “THE NUMBERS, MASON. WHAT DO THEY…

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  • Hushed up: the forgotten winters of ‘99 and ‘00

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Well there goes the Quantitative Ease Double IPA! I told you you’d need to act fast yesterday – by the evening it was all sold out. To those who managed to snatch a few bottles, I hope…

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  • The mysterious wonder of the market world

    ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – The small microphone that loops around his ear is hovering before his mouth like a fluffy ball of cotton. With a nod from the video crew, he takes to the stage. “Hello everyone. Thank you for all…

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  • Brewed to perfection

    Available Now! ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND – Home once more. Following an uneventful return trip from Sweden, I’m back at the helm of Capital & Conflict. I hope Nathan Tipping and Will Dahl have been keeping you entertained in my absence –…

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  • Winter reflections

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As I went for a walk yesterday evening, I heard warm notes of music drift through the chilly air. I wandered towards the cheery sound, and discovered a brass band had gathered to play outside the supermarket…

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  • London vs Shanghai: golden struggle

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – A short note from me today, I’m just about to go live with our quarterly conference call for subscribers to The Price Report with Tim Price. Tim has always been an outspoken character – but I’ve never…

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  • Sixty beers for ₿0.01147188

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Happy hump day! A quick note before we begin: further to yesterday’s note, I want to know what your predictions are for 2021 – investment related, but not necessarily stock specific. Let me know here, and I’ll…

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  • Groundhog year

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As 2020 winds to a close, it’s beginning to give me déjà vu. Everything has begun to feel 2017 all over again. Remember that year? Back when “Article 50” was plastered all over the press instead of…

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  • Approaching the iceberg

    HALF WAY INN, STOCKHOLM – Almost December, huh? This year has flown by faster for me than any other I can remember. Perhaps it’s a good thing that 2020 is “getting itself over with” so we can crack on with…

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  • A golden ratio

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Of all the gold coins I’ve got, this one’s my favourite: Source: BullionStar Of all the designs the Royal Mint has stamped on gold and silver Britannias, it’s yet to surpass this one from 2003 in my…

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  • Permanent moral mental market incapacity

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – As the week draws to a close, it’s time for some light relief. We’ve written often about the strange happenings taking place in the bond market in recent years – like countries being paid to borrow money,…

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  • Free weddings and a funeral

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – The last time the Nikkei was this high, I hadn’t been born yet. Source: Fuller Treacy Money We’re a way off that ‘89 all-time high… but if the market has taught us anything this year, it’s that…

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  • Big ₿ang

    THE ARDBEG EMBASSY, STOCKHOLM – Turns out the Swedes aren’t half bad at distilling whisky. What they are bad at is charging an affordable price for it. Though perhaps I shouldn’t blame the Swedes. This establishment is after all owned…

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  • Wildcat bank meets Grey Rhino risk

    ESPRESSO HOUSE, STOCKHOLM – A new week beckons: let’s start it off with the results… Looks like most of you think bitcoin does have at least some value – though there’s a significant minority who think it doesn’t. Fascinatingly, the…

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  • Golden mountain peaks

    SOUTHSIDE PUB, STOCKHOLM – Ahoy from a faraway watering hole. They serve Guinness here and there’s a vending machine for Camel cigarettes, so it’s about as close to paradise as a man can get. It’s sleeting outside but nice and…

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  • Qui bono?

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – It’s all so damned… banal. Source: The Telegraph Our monetary oracle has spoken. Behold his wisdom. From The Telegraph: A widely used digital currency could pave the way for negative interest rates by making it harder to…

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  • The secret love of the “silent billionaires”

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – I told you this’d be coming yesterday… I’ve been banging on about bitcoin for a fair while now, but I want to know your thoughts on the matter. I was wondering how specific I should be with…

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  • Gold – the original fintech

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Following on from yesterday’s rather alarming chart, I thought I’d continue today with another one, this time courtesy of Charlie Morris over at The Fleet Street Letter Wealth Builder. Source: Bloomberg What you’re looking at there is…

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  • “This market is quiet… too quiet”

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Let’s start the week off with an alarming chart to get the juices flowing, shall we? This one certainly makes me nervous: Source: Google Trends That’s global Google search popularity for a certain word (indexed, so most…

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  • A grey rhino in the bank of the realm

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – There’s not even a flicker of hesitation in their eyes. Unflinching, unconscious of the awkward guarded manoeuvres now practiced in blighty… the Swedes squeeze past you on a supermarket shopping aisle. It’s strange how something that was…

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  • Deep water, buried treasure

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Could this be a punter’s paradise? Goldman Sachs thinks we’re in one. Its list of stocks loved by the everyman is up nearly 70% since May, which would suggest that the “little guy” is having a big…

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  • A thoroughly vaccinated market

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – “So Pfizer waits until two days after a disputed election is “called” for Biden and six days after the election itself to release details [of a vaccine] they’ve probably had for weeks? Well, nothing to see here…”…

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  • Ab chao magna: a modern Drake’s fortune

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – “Greatness from small beginnings” – or more literally – “Great things, from small things” was the motto of Sir Francis Drake. Emblazoned on the coat of arms he was granted by Elizabeth I, sic parvis magna was…

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  • The Big Poll II

    SODERMALM, STOCKHOLM – Not a mask in sight. The pubs and restaurants are busy – often full. But the teetotaller lobby in government has a monopoly on the sale of all booze above 3.5% ABV, and taxes it to high…

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  • Penny for the Guy?

    TERMINAL 1, MANCHESTER AIRPORT – Remember, remember, the fifth of November… or don’t. Her Majesty’s government certainly seems to be having trouble with it. It’s ironic that tomorrow’s lockdown across England kicks off on Guy Fawkes Day. Especially now that…

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  • The night is always darkest before The Donald

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – Prior to his presidency, way back in 2015, Donald Trump tweeted – amongst many other things – that it is “often to your advantage to be underestimated”. (Not “misunderestimated” of course – you’d have to ask George…

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  • Pubbed to death

    THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “A Tory MP, a Labour MP and an SNP MP go into a pub. And shut it down.” – Tim Price Once more into the pubs dear friends, once more. They need the business, the…

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  • “A Good Man” for president

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Donald Trump has desecrated the values that make America a beacon to the world. Joe Biden is a good man who would restore steadiness and civility to the White House. If The Economist had a vote, it…

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  • The coin that cursed a bull market

    THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – Got a new paperweight in the mail the other day. Makes for a decent coaster, too. In theory, I could deposit this giant coin at a bank, and see a mighty +£10 be credited to…

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  • Party like it’s 1826

    ECCLESHALL, STAFFORDSHIRE – A nice chart to start us off with today. While it’s no surprise where investors have placed their money in the stockmarket this year, the sheer degree to which they have shunned everything except tech stocks is…

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  • The full faith and credit of PayPal

    THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “In the 1970s, it was gold. In the 2020s, it’s going to be bitcoin.” It’s not often that Charlie Morris pushes the boat out with a big claim. Indeed, it’s his ability to deftly hedge…

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  • A crucible of human effort in the palm of your hand

    Some of you may remember today’s letter, which I first wrote back in April. I’m re-publishing it today as I’m currently working on a related little side project which needs a bit more polish. While April feels like an awfully…

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  • The return of inflation, part II

    We continue with the second half of our short report on the return of inflation. If you haven’t read part I yet, you can find it on the website here. Tomorrow, you’ll be hearing from a new member of the…

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  • The return of inflation, part I

    I’ll be away from Capital & Conflict for the next few of days – I’m currently working on an exciting side project behind the scenes that needs a bit more polish before I can share it with you. I’ll be…

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  • Good cop, bad cop good cop

    THE ARTISAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Children have one kind of silliness, as you know, and grown-ups have another kind” – C.S. Lewis May I present, dear reader, the other kind: Italian government borrowing costs back below zero, and heading lower In…

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  • A fifthful of dollars

    THE ARTISAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – Almost a fifth of all the US dollars in existence were created this year. Quite an achievement, that. Considering the world’s dependency on greenbacks to do business – using pictures of Benjamin Franklin to do all…

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  • Through the wardrobe, and into the endless white winter

    THE NAVIGATION INN, STAFFORDSHIRE – “No interest? No problem!” So cry investors as the Italian government beats them bloody with a brand new stick: the zero-coupon bond. While it’s the first time the Italian government has been able to get…

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  • A Greek Odyssey

    THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Stuff it under your mattress and you’ll make more interest” bellows a voice from across the pub. The suggestion is addressed to a gentleman seated on the opposite side of the room who’s been trying…

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  • “Greenbacks from Greenpeace” and the investments of Icarus

    THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Sunshine, on my shoulders, makes me happy…” I doubt John Denver would be very chuffed were he living in the UK these days (or ever), given our weather. But the great musician’s music is likely…

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  • Trillions

    THE HYDRO, DERBYSHIRE – Well the cat’s out of the bag now… If you haven’t seen yesterday’s announcement yet, I suggest you do so now.  That marks one of the largest events in the history of this company – certainly…

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  • The European Paradox

    REDWILLOW BREWERY, DERBYSHIRE – “The value of money has been destroyed by around 98% since I’ve been living there” a colleague tells me over video chat. “Inflation has been kicking around 50% for the past five or six years. Which…

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  • Late night drinking borrowing with the IMF

    53 DEGREES NORTH, DERBYSHIRE – “I should tell you to leave Sir. But tonight, I’d like you to keep on drinking.” Sadly, this is not something I’ve been told by any barmen on my ongoing voyage through English pubs. It…

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  • The city that never sleeps is now asleep

    BUXTON BREWERY CELLAR, DERBYSHIRE – Is this chart a fifth full, or a fifth empty? Look there, on the bottom right – is this cause for optimism, or pessimism? Source: The Market Ear The city that never sleeps is looking…

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  • The Bursting Banks of Britain

    THE PALACE HOTEL, DERBYSHIRE – “Don’t ever remember three straight days of torrential rain – the canal is an inch from bursting its banks.” I like a bit of rain (you learn to in Aberdeen), so I’ve been quite enjoying…

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  • Tsunami in a spyglass

    THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Whenever I tweet, some call it a tirade. Totally dishonest!” – Donald Trump, 11 November 2012 (punctuation adjusted) To some, it is a tirade. To others it is a lullaby, a constant reassurance that a…

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  • Jump over the moon to me

    THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – Let’s start October and the sunset of the year with something optimistic, shall we? I have good news. Nay, that’s too mild – I have reason to rejoice, true cause for celebration… You see, I’ve…

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  • Lake-bombing and Twitter-spamming

    THE STAR, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It’s always fun throwing bombs into lakes.” Tim Price is a friend to furore. He made that quip after we finished a conference call for his readers at The Price Report yesterday, and I was commending…

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  • “Sweden was right”?

    THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – I can’t promise that you’ll agree with everything you’re about to read. Especially if yesterday’s poll is to be trusted. But we wouldn’t be doing our job if we weren’t challenging your views on investing,…

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  • The Big Poll: a readership divided

    THE RUTLAND ARMS, DERBYSHIRE – “I feel like Adam” reads a message from a friend. “I live in the garden of Eden, but I cannot partake of the fruits…” The fella in question is a university student in Edinburgh –…

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  • Coronavirus.exe

    THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Something very important, and indeed society changing, may come out of the Ebola epidemic that will be a very good thing: NO SHAKING HANDS!” – Donald Trump, 4 October 2014 He was ahead of his…

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  • Witching Hour

    THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “The country is already a powder keg, and now we’ve lost Christmas.” As Danger Zone by Kenny Loggins plays over the pub speakers, Tim Price’s grim email hits all the harder. It’s not a sunny…

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  • Last orders?

    THE JUNCTION INN, STAFFORDSHIRE – Once more into the pub dear friends, once more! While we still can… I’m glad I’m not in London at the moment as the new anti-WuFlu measures come into force. Or Scotland for that matter,…

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  • We’re seven years below the waterline

    THE ECCLIAN, STAFFORDSHIRE – A hot air balloon hangs above the horizon like a dreamcatcher for the county. And the last squeezes of sunshine the season has to offer linger warm in the air. It’s a fine day indeed. And…

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  • Honeytrapped: China’s “beautiful person plan investment plan”

    THE OLD SMITHY, STAFFORDSHIRE – “[MI6] told me about honey-traps and warned me that the Chinese secret service often use women to entice men to bed to get information. I didn’t think for one minute that I would fall for…

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  • The Bird Cage of Moscow

    THE BELL, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It all sounds a bit like the man who jumped off the top of a skyscraper and said as he passed each floor on the way down ~ ‘So far, so good’…” A reader responds to…

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  • Flying to nowhere

    THE ROYAL OAK, STAFFORDSHIRE – “Are they going to the Bermuda Triangle?” “Bitchcraft”, a (presumably) pseudonymous Twitter user in Brazil, asks a fair question. With a chart like this, you have to wonder exactly where Singapore Airlines is flying people…

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  • Games of empire

    THE KINGS ARMS, STAFFORDSHIRE – “It’s like he’s consistently lucky. Which means there’s something we’re not getting…” So remarked our energy analyst Kit Winder to me the other day (via text). He was describing the performance of Sam Curran, a…

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  • The elephant in the living room

    Well dear reader, The results are in. … and it ain’t looking good for Joe Biden: Thank you for all who voted in our election poll – the more of these polls we do, the more of you seem to…

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  • An investor’s six-letter fever dream: NASDAQ

    Just look at this thing: Tripling since the lows of 2016, the mighty Nasdaq index stands tall. The WuFlu has not been a hinderance; quite the opposite. It’s acted as an accelerant, like some kind of performance-enhancing drug. A steroid…

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  • Chaos is the new cool

    Happy hump day, dear reader. I told you yesterday this poll was coming… Who do you reckon will win the US election? I want to know what the Capital & Conflict readership thinks. I’m not asking who will win the…

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  • The greatest market rally of all time

    September already, huh? What a year this is turning out to be. We’re going through the months like a pack of Chewits. It’ll only be a few weeks until autumn officially begins and this strange summer will be forever in…

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  • I couldn’t let this stay behind a paywall

    I often come across pieces of editorial written by my colleagues that are so good that I feel compelled to share them only to remember that I cannot, for it wouldn’t be fair on their paying subscribers. I make exceptions…

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  • The quaint club of countries destroying their citizens savings

    To start us off, here’s some light relief to brighten your day: Source: Twitter There’s a lot to unpack in there; we could go down several different routes on the subject of negative interest rates and the European Central Bank’s…

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  • I ignored this indicator once, and lost thousands. Should I ignore it again?

    I have some bad news. That’s if you like gold, at least. If you hate gold, this is probably great news; a ray of sunshine to brighten your day. And if you’re neutral about gold, perhaps this’ll just add some…

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  • The Capital & Conflict reader cocktail recipe is revealed

    Gold, silver, or bitcoin… if you had to hold only one of these assets for the next decade, which one would you choose? That’s what I asked you last week. The results have since come back, and it turns out……

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  • Hot money, high gas: the energy crisis in the ether

    Let’s start the week with an energy crisis, shall we? I can’t have been the only one in dire need of coffee this morning… The phrase “skyrocketing gas prices” may bring images of the 1970s to mind. Global energy supplies…

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  • Watch bitcoin’s thin golden line – the whales are up to something

    “What do ye do when ye see a whale, men?” “Sing out for him!” was the impulsive rejoinder from a score of clubbed voices. “Good!” cried Ahab, with a wild approval in his tones; observing the hearty animation into which…

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  • Making a massive win awful loss in silver’s sibling

    I’ve a story for you today – a deceptive one. Some might call it an investing success. Others might think it a failure. I’ll let you be the judge. It starts with a precious metal called palladium. While that name…

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  • One asset, for the next decade. But which?

    Happy hump day. Now imagine… It’s 19 August 2030. You wake up and stretch, and then immediately summon a screen to check your investment portfolio. A decade previously, an obscure investment writer on the internet challenged you to buy one…

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  • If the barman says this, it could be a “BUY” signal…

    It’s been a long time since I began working here at Southbank Investment Research, dear reader. … Or at least, it feels like it. In reality it’s been three years and a couple of months. I’ve changed a lot during…

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  • The silent charge of a quiet bull

    Why do so few people see what is happening? Bitcoin is quietly creeping back to the all-time high. The network is growing, the space is more vibrant than ever before, and volatility remains low. If this sort of performance comes…

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  • The £9 trillion tech company you’ve never heard of

    Well dear reader, the results are in. This week, we’ve been exploring the prospect of another nationwide lockdown brought about by a second wave of WuFlu. It’s a heavily consequential matter for our lives, let alone our investment portfolios. And…

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  • Tasteless whisky, flooded streets

    An old buddy of mine in Aberdeen was formally diagnosed with the WuFlu yesterday. He’s the only person I know to have actually tested positive, and not just exhibited symptoms which led them to conclude they had it. While several…

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  • A beating and a bright side

    Dear Reader, Happy Hump Day. That storm sure arrived soon enough. Thunder is grumbling constantly from the horizon as I write this, and the dark clouds are coming closer – but it’s not hit me yet. I’ve not seen any…

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  • Spectators in a storm

    It’s damn near sweltering here in London. Tropical weather, humid as hell. Inside or out, the heat feels inescapable. And the moist air clings to your form wherever you go. It’s like we’ve started importing foreign weather now that we…

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  • A pension for an immortal

    I’m about to show you one of the boldest, strangest financial images I have ever seen. To be honest with you, I’m still not entirely sure what to make of it. When I first came across it, I laughed aloud…

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  • The silver market is getting jubilant

    Silver, which just had its best month in 40 years… has started the current month with its best week in 40 years. I was planning on showing you a couple of charts today already, but I’m just going to show…

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  • The Italian Job has nothing on this gold haul…

    I must confess dear reader, I had not heard of the band named Spandau Ballet until this week. It was only after I received the rather… cryptic series of texts above that I discovered the group and its 1983 hit…

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  • In 2012, membership fees were £7,200 – now they’re £18 million

    Ever heard of the Vladimir Club, dear reader? It’s a real exclusive outfit. No riff-raff allowed. If you’re a member, you’ve probably got vaults in your name in Switzerland, a Learjet service on speed-dial, and a wine cellar big enough…

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  • Painkiller, but no skin graft

    Ouch. The ol’ business of banking is taking a beating. HSBC is in the process of cutting 35,000 jobs and setting aside $8-$12 billion to absorb losses from WuFlu-related defaults. The popular portfolio holding has now fallen beneath the level…

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  • Long in the tooth tech

    August already huh, dear reader? The year feels like it’s flying by… and yet the days before lockdown, from January through to March, feel like forever ago. Strange times. I wonder how we’ll look back on 2020 in a few…

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  • The emperors will bow, but their stocks will first

    “Our founders would not bow before a king. Nor should we bow before the emperors of the online economy.” – David Cicilline, US congressman for Rhode Island The emperors of Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon appeared before the US House…

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  • Primal passions, Kodak smiles

    Dear reader, I- Hmmm. So, uh… you remember that company that used to make cameras when you were a kid? Kodak? Apparently it uh… makes drugs now. Got three-quarters of a billion dollars as a loan from the US government…

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  • Hitting the quicksilver cash machine after midnight

    Happy hump day, dear reader. I commented in yesterday’s note how the silver market had gone wild in the middle of the night – turns out some of you were involved! As one reader writes in: So, Boaz, were you…

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  • The Money Monsoon

    Have you been enjoying the weather, Reader? It’s been a damn rainy few days here in London – though it sounds like it’s the rest of the country that’s really got drookit. I must confess dear Reader, I’ve been loving…

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  • £2 billion in silver – a “proper” King’s ransom

    Ready for another market rodeo? We spent a fair bit of time on the action in gold silver last week – both exploded in price, with the former finally making it past its all-time high in dollars it hit in…

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  • This is the woman the establishment fears

    So here we are again dear reader, at the end of another wild week. It’s been a barnstormer for precious metals, as we’ve been writing about in recent days. We’re also seeing further signs of exhaustion in the tech sector,…

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  • No Robin Hood… but there’s Merry Men in this market

    Source: Austrian Mint The Merry Men of Sherwood Forest Silicon Valley will not be making their way to our shores after all… I’ve speculated a couple of times in this letter what might happen to the British stockmarket if Robinhood,…

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  • Don’t love silver? You will soon

    There’s something about silver that drives certain individuals nuts. If gold was the metal that drove the conquistadors mad, in recent decades silver has had the power to induce near-psychotic states among its holders. I almost wrote “investors”, but that…

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  • Martyrdom, gold, Rome… and a decent pint

    “… If society could solve all its problems by printing money, the Roman Empire would rule the world.” – Fringe news aggregator Zero Hedge, addressing the Federal Reserve That line came to mind as I was wandering over what remains…

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  • Freedom in the shadow of the British Empire?

    Back in early April when lockdown was stretching out before us like a vast expanse, I noted in this letter just how good it would finally be to have a freshly poured pint at a pub. With the pubs now…

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  • Airlines > electric vehicles?

    Happy hump day, Reader, And what a hump it is that we’re cresting. Charlie Morris, who had billions of pounds under his management when he was head of absolute returns at HSBC, described Tuesday to be “a memorable day in…

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  • The Looney Tunes episode of a lifetime

    The year of our Lord two thousand and twenty just keeps on delivering the goods. Remember this chart of Tesla I showed you a month ago (A Looney Tune you don’t want to miss – 10 June)? Source: me, on…

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  • Finding freedom and fortune outside the UK

    A buddy of mine has had enough – he’s getting out of here. It was the first time we’d seen each other since the lockdown began. I could tell he was somewhat different when I met him, and not just…

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  • “This isn’t sexy, but you should be excited about it”

    A few weeks back on our market broadcasts we discussed how the cybersecurity sector was booming amid the lockdown. I use interest in the $HACK ETF to gauge interest in the sector, and it’s now reached all-time highs, up over…

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  • Gold investors, 2030 AD

    Is this what a market top looks like? Source: Hao Hong, on Twitter When watching the market becomes not just a recreational, but a relaxing activity… you have to assume that the market must have moved in a direction which…

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  • “Extra suit for your sovereign” at Brooks Brothers?

    I asked you last week how it might be possible to buy four pints of bitter and fish and chips with change to spare from a single pound coin. Many of you wrote in with the answer I had in…

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  • The best of times, the worst of times: a tale of Gold ‘n Growth

    It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season…

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  • A brief encounter with a lockdown plutocrat

    It felt odd going back to the pub after three months of drinking in private. But it got much weirder after a stranger began speaking to me about my hat. I was standing in the queue outside with my girlfriend….

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  • The Deux Com Boom

    Guess when this magazine cover was printed: Any ideas? Bloomberg bought BusinessWeek at the end of 2009, and the design is clearly quite dated… but pretty much all of those stories could be written today. Billions are flowing into index…

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  • A golden pound for four pints

    Oh say does that star-spangled banner yet wave…. O’er the land of the free, and the home of the brave? I’ve always been a little jealous of the Americans when they celebrate 4 July. It seems like such a great…

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  • Four pints and fish and chips for £1

    Two more days. Just two more days until the pubs open. Anticipation keeps building for a return to pub life. But when the doors finally do open on Independence Day… how expensive will a pint be? During the lockdown, we’ve…

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  • Cut your hair, buy great stocks

    Happy hump day, reader, To the reader who is asking, I am indeed in need of a shave. But back to that in a minute. I always enjoy looking through my mailbox to read your feedback on my scribblings (for…

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  • A fireball from the blue

    We had a hut by the river with my brother Chekaren. We were sleeping. Suddenly we both woke up at the same time. Somebody shoved us. We heard whistling and felt strong wind. Chekaren said, ‘Can you hear all those…

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  • This “Red Scare” will cause a red market

    At the beginning of this year, we published the most disturbing piece of research I’ve ever worked on here at Southbank Investment Research. It was about the crimes against humanity the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been perpetrating against its…

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  • Freddos, footballers, and ‘flation

    The pubs beckon. Independence Day awaits. Just a few more days… but a busy few, that’s for sure. And as I mentioned last week, we’re about to publish the monthly issue of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert on the…

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  • Gold breaks free – but is a bear on its tail?

    As we’ve reached the end of yet another wild week, I reached out to macro specialist Nickolai Hubble and our energy analyst Kit Winder to discuss the stories they’re keeping a close eye on. In our final broadcast of the…

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  • The Commodity Capitol and the Great Land of Gold

    We’ve been writing about inflation this week. About that brutally destructive force, the bane of savers and investors alike, but especially cruel to the poorest in our society. It’s currently being administered to the everyman in a dose that’s just…

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  • The accidental discovery of a Money Machine by the UK government

    Go to the fringes of the investing world and you will find individuals with unconventional approaches, strong alternative opinions, or both. There are various topics around which these strong opinions are formed: gold, the accuracy of various economic schools of…

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  • Caught in the WuFlu’s wake: Wirecard Liarcard

    In yesterday’s note, we explored how inflation – almost forgotten as a threat by mainstream investors – may finally be brewing in the background, ready to return and wreak havoc. Now that it’s not just central banks stuffing money into…

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  • Buy 227 Mercedes cars, get the company free

    Most of those in political office, quite understandably, are firmly against inflation and firmly in favor of policies producing it. (This schizophrenia hasn’t caused them to lose touch with reality, however; Congressmen have made sure that their pensions – unlike…

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  • We haven’t been this broke since…

    1963. The decade that would be remembered as the swinging 60s had begun to earn its namesake. ‘63 saw the release of The Beatles’ first album (Please, Please Me), The Rolling Stones’ first single (a cover of Chuck Berry’s Come…

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  • The uncrowned monarch of money

    Make way, dear reader, make way! Make way… For King Benjamin Franklin! Behold, there he strides, in all his greenbacked glory… The US attracts all manner of international condemnation these days – criticism of its culture, of its endless wars…

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  • Preparing for the upcoming end-of-lockdown fireworks show

    As lockdown has dragged on and on, some folks have been hankering for a big ol’ fireworks display when it’s finally over. It’s quite understandable, especially for those in high-pressure jobs. Stuck alone indoors breathing stagnant air, you couldn’t really…

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  • Can we beat the Americans at underage gambling as well as drinking?

    Who better to express “animal spirits” in the market than kids entering their teenage years? We’ve written quite a few times about the commission-free trading app in the States called Robinhood, which is very popular amongst youngsters. Now this was…

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  • A Cold War with lockdown characteristics

    My colleague Nickolai Hubble has always told me one of the joys he has in his role in publishing his research is seeing his predictions play out in the news months later. It’s something I expect James Allen has been…

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  • Roll up, roll up: throw your trash in here and get a state-sponsored bailout

    There’s a lot of trash in the European banks. A lot of loans that shouldn’t have been made. Loans where there hasn’t been a payment of interest or principal for… well, a while. Best not dwell on that. Let’s just…

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  • This ain’t Sherwood Forest, but Robinhood is saving the day…

    Why have bankrupt companies become some of the biggest performers in the stockmarket in recent weeks? Could Robinhood, the trading app popular amongst kids in the States, be swooping in to save the day with a bailout of millennial capital?…

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  • Is Robinhood really stealing from the rich, to give to the poor?

    “I know this defies the law of gravity, but I never studied law!” – Bugs Bunny in High Diving Hare (1945) You might think that when a company starts exploring the possibility of declaring bankruptcy, that its share price would…

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  • A very American melt-up

    We went from a 2008 collapse to a 1999 stock bubble in under three months. – Chris Cole, Hedge fund manager earlier in the week Late last year, our publisher Nick O’Connor asked all of us editors at Southbank Investment…

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  • “Five buy airlines and humiliate Buffett”

    “I do love the beginning of the summer hols,” said Julian. “They always seem to stretch out ahead for ages and ages.” “They go so nice and slowly at first,” said Anne, his little sister. “Then they start to gallop.”…

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  • This woman in charge may be branded an outlaw…

    A quick heads up: our broadcast schedule is changing slightly from this week forwards – we’re shifting from a daily broadcast to three per week. With a more streamlined schedule, we hope to provide you with more incisive content going…

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  • A “largely peaceful” wealth redistribution

    Another week of chaos begins… With any luck, we’ll be able to go to the pub again soon – provided we identify as protestors first, of course. How times change. It wasn’t long ago that self-righteous moralists declared that flouting…

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  • Saddam and Smaug: golden hoards

    “Gold. Gold beyond measure, beyond sorrow and grief… Behold, the great treasure hoard of Thrór! the global ETF market!” – The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (2014, script slightly altered) I wasn’t a big fan of the The…

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  • A day to remember

    “We are the good guys. We are on the side of angels.” – Jeff Skilling, slightly less than three years prior to his arrest 2020 just keeps on getting better… Jeff Skilling, the former CEO of Enron who was released…

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  • Reapers come out of their coffins

    I’m back at the helm of Capital & Conflict and our daily market broadcasts. It’s been good to take a couple days off and get burned to hell by the impressively strong London sun, and indeed to give you a…

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  • A generational investment opportunity for commodities?

    It wasn’t all that long ago that the price of a gold sovereign felt stuck around the £250 mark. Some days it’d be cheaper, some days it’d be more expensive… but between mid-2016 until May last year, the market’s idea…

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  • War cycle crescendo

    In the meantime, I’d like to show you a note Akhil Patel recently wrote for his subscribers over at Cycles, Trends and Forecasts. It’s about the historical “war cycle” we discussed on Friday’s market broadcast, a topic both fascinating and…

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  • A Brit, an Israeli, and a Pole walk into a bar…

    Well there we have it. As we wrote in Tuesday’s note (The Bond girl, the Cuban icon, and the man from Dixieland), we were watching the dollar for its next move. If it broke higher in value, it’d be bad…

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  • The biggest debt default ever? (A trillion+)

    It’s time for a look through the postbox. It’s been a while since we’ve had a good rummage through my mailbox at [email protected]. I’ve been somewhat distracted with hosting our daily market broadcasts and all the wild events we’ve seen…

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  • Darkness arrives in paradise

    Imagine if the Bank of England started taking to Twitter to make sure we knew what the word recession means – outside of a recession. You might find it strange – ominous, even – that such an institution would suddenly…

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