Bill Bonner

When the mob turns against the rich, some of the rich put on rags and join them. CNBC: The granddaughter of Roy Disney, co-founder of The Walt Disney Co. with brother Walt Disney, said [last] Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – First, the jobs report on Friday showed a big collapse in hiring. The official numbers showed 20,000 new jobs added in February, a far cry from the 170,000 that were expected. Then, the Atlanta Fed said projected…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Stocks ended last week on a low note, after a jobs report showed the smallest gains since 2017. Larry Kudlow – the president’s director of the National Economic Council – was on TV almost immediately explaining how…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – A Washington Post headline caught our eye on the weekend: “Trump to slash spending” At last! Our eyes lit up. Our pulse raced. Finally, the Great Disruptor was disrupting something that really matters. Slash spending! Cut the budget! Fire…

LA PAMPA GRANDE, ARGENTINA – Comes word that the Democrats are up to more mischief. Senator Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) was expected to introduce a new tax bill earlier this week. The senator says his bill would tax the sale of…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The news is full of absurdities, trivialities, and just plain dumb things. But some of them are revealing. But we interrupt our dot connecting with a brief travel update. We’re visiting a neighboring farm (6 hours’ drive…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “It’s amazing that any of us survived at all,” said Natalio, sitting in the back seat of our truck, holding on to the passenger grip above the seat to cushion the bumps and turns, as he recalled…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Mike Pence told the crowd at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) that “we will never be a socialist country.” What was that? A prediction? Or just political BS? Already, America’s medical system – 17% of the economy…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – As the quality of government declines – from Jefferson and Adams… to Dubya and The Donald – the observer needs a broader sense of humor. Where he used to titter over a bon mot… or smile wryly…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We made two bold predictions, about a year ago. Today, we make another one.

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Is he okay?” “We don’t know yet.” “But he’s at home?” “Yes, the doctor said there was nothing they could do.” Ranching, especially out here, far from hospitals… doctors… or even roads… is a risky business. Yesterday,…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Politics – whether local or national – is always a con game. And the con generally increases with the scale. The bigger the “we,” the bigger the swindle.

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – With the Dow once again over 26,000, we have to wonder… Are stocks really in a bear market? We thought we passed the peak in October. If so, we can look forward to a long bear market…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Warning: The following may not be suitable for today’s namby-pamby, panty-waisted, gluten-fearing audiences. Cattle Drive Yesterday was the roundup. We set out on horseback early in the morning. But the gauchos were way ahead of us. We…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Let’s see, Dear Reader, what were we talking about? We are on a walkabout… looking at others in order to see ourselves. And, oh yes… the gist of the last few days’ conversation was that you should…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We are a-wandering… searching high and low… looking for ourselves. Yes, that is what travel is all about: trying to find out who you are.

I love to go a-wandering along the mountain track. And as I go, I love to sing, my knapsack on my back. Val-deri, val-dera, val-deri, val-dera-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. – “The Happy Wanderer” SALTA, ARGENTINA – Come with us, Dear Reader… We are…

Editor’s Note: Today, something a bit different for Diary readers. Recently, Bill attended an invitation-only meeting at our nation’s capital. Dan Denning, Bill’s right-hand man on The Bill Bonner Letter, was also in attendance. The stated purpose: Discuss the coming financial crisis and how…

PARIS – We begin with kvetches. Complaints. Grumbles. From dear readers… Anyone who opposes Trump is anti-American. – G.M. Listen, you are smart enough to know that if you keep banging the president, a lot of us are leaving. You…

PARIS – We live in an Era of Busted Dreams (EBD). Yesterday, we looked at one of them – the banged-up hope that Donald J. Trump might turn things around. It seems more and more unlikely. First, because he doesn’t…

PARIS – This week, the threads come together… the lines converge… the dots connect… The State of the Union… The Republicans and Democrats… “Us vs. Them”… Our own wobbly “us”… …and the coming financial catastrophe.

A physician cannot heal the sick if he is ignorant of the causes of certain conditions of the body, nor can a statesman help his fellow citizens if he cannot follow how, why or by what process each event had…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We warned readers. This week would require a little extra effort. We are challenging one of our most deeply held instincts – the drive to take sides. As expected, many readers sided against your editor yesterday. They were…

It’s a wonder you’ve managed to keep your business going with such a fervent Republican bias. Apparently, you don’t want to have Democrats among your members. I’ve just started and already I’m beginning to question why I bothered. I couldn’t…

Well I hope that I don’t fall in love with you ‘Cause falling in love just makes me blue Well, the music plays and you display your heart for me to see I had a beer and now I hear…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We left the warm and friendly west coast of Central America on Friday. Now, we are on the south coast of Ireland. Still friendly, but less warm. We are here to check on Home Sweet Home… our…

RANCHO SANTANA – Last week went by so fast! Stocks got a big boost on Wednesday, on news of an impending trade deal with China. Then too, Jerome Powell announced that if anything was going to ruin the party on…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – We got here yesterday, after the usual travel indignities. What we like about Ol’ Billy, our daughter’s blind dog, is the way he bears his afflictions with grace, which is the best any of us can…

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – Stocks got off to a rough start on Monday. Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar reported punk numbers; investors took it as a sign that the world economy is slowing. That’s our guess too. Night Is Day After…

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – Americans seem to be getting on board the “tax the rich” train faster than they can sell tickets for it. We thought it would take at least a couple of years… and a recession… to bring…

BALTIMORE – We are living in an Era of Busted Dreams. The Bolivarian Revolution is just one of them. When we left you last week, it looked like the government of Venezuela was in a fight for its life. The…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – “Soldiers revolt…” “Millions on verge of starvation…” “Biggest mass exodus in history of the Americas…” What a glorious show! Right before our eyes… a real-life, real-time experiment… …all the conceits… the pretensions… the balderdash… the claptrap… …all…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – It pays to be one of the elite. Not only do you ride in first class and live in a better zip code, you get richer, too. Bloomberg is on the story: David Rubenstein has doubled his…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We spent the weekend as a seeing eye human. Our daughter asked us to dog-sit. What are parents for? And the dog in question, a golden retriever, had gone blind. Ol’ Billy would take a little extra…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The intellectuals are laying the groundwork. That is, they’re digging the foundations for an extraordinary structure – a tower of debt higher than any ever seen in world history. The primary architect? Paul Krugman? Jerome Powell? Joseph…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We are on our way to the future. Not that we know what will happen, but we’ve been looking at the broad patterns of history. Most likely, they will repeat themselves… and surprise everyone. Over the last…

Credo quia absurdum (I believe because it is absurd). – Tertullian You can’t make this stuff up. – Unknown BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Stocks went nowhere on Monday. Congress and the White House didn’t get anywhere, either, in their attempts to…

For those who live inside a myth, it seems a self-evident fact. – John Gray BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We began the weekend in hushed anticipation of an approaching snowstorm. All week long, the weathermen had been warning us we’d get…

BALTIMORE – The Donald goes to “The Wall” and the debate goes on. POTUS visited America’s southern border towns, trying to drum up support for his long-promised border wall. Meanwhile, as we saw last week, so far, we’re losing ground…

BALTIMORE – In his talks with Democrat leaders on Wednesday, POTUS apparently lost his temper. He slammed his hand down on the table and walked out. The subject was money – $5.7 billion, to be precise – the money requested…

BALTIMORE – A big, new danger appeared in Congress this month: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the newest representative of New York’s 14th district. At 29, she is the youngest woman ever elected to Congress; she will doubtless be there for decades to…

BALTIMORE – Stocks advanced a little on Monday. Investors were said to be hopeful about the upcoming trade talks with the Chinese. With a little luck, President Trump will talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping about the ongoing trade war….

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Wow… another big up day for the Dow on Friday. The index had climbed 747 points, or 3.3%, by the time the closing bell rang. Analysts credited a strong jobs market and a weak Fed. The Bureau…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The stock market may have resumed its selloff sooner than we expected. The Dow fell 660 points on Thursday after Apple announced weak sales – mostly in China. Here’s Bloomberg: The S&P 500 Index tumbled 2.5 percent…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We looked back yesterday. Today, we will look ahead. As we will see, the past casts its shadow over the future. Bloomberg is on the case: Key Fed Yield Gauge Points to Rate Cuts for First Time…

Editor’s Note: Happy New Year from Bill Bonner and the team at Bonner & Partners. A new year is here. We are happy to have you on board. Expect to continue to receive Bill’s trademark wit and insights straight to…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Well, we were wrong. We figured the Fed would pause now. Instead, it went ahead with its rate hike and suggested it would pause in 2019. This was widely expected by the markets, if not by us….

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The last leaves are falling from the trees. And the last days of December are counting down, like the quiet moments before an execution. Friday, the Dow fell nearly another 500 points. From Bloomberg: Investors rushed out…

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – We’re down in Florida to meet a new grandchild. It’s a different world down here – different from Ireland, Maryland, France, Argentina… our usual haunts. Florida is flat. And barely above sea level. If the North…

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – First, Bloomberg reports that: U.S. government debt is on track this year to rise at the fastest pace since 2012, as a stronger economy fails to keep pace with the wave of red ink that’s rising…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – A fight with the Fed one week. A trade war with China the next. And now, it’s a war with the Democrats. Donald J. Trump knows how to keep the cameras rolling. From Bloomberg: President Donald Trump…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Monday’s trading was inconclusive, like an argument between a husband and wife that has been going on for years. Sellers opened with an attack that sent the Dow down 500 points. Buyers defended themselves… forcing the Dow…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Trading continued on Thursday… with stocks swinging lustily from tree to tree like drunken monkeys. When the closing bell finally sounded, the Dow was down just 79 points. The monkeys were greatly relieved. And on Friday, the…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

BALTIMORE – Well, it didn’t take investors long… In less than 24 hours, they figured out that the trade war was fake and the “incredible” deal between President T. and the Chinese at the G20 summit was fake, too. JPMorgan…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The historic powwow at the G20 in Buenos Aires last weekend could turn out to produce some positive results. At least the Chinese and the Americans are thrashing around. Maybe they’ll knock down a trade barrier or…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The show went on! And, as we predicted, The Donald claimed victory… and stocks went up. When we left you previously, Mr. Trump was on Air Force One. He was on his way to the G20 in…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

BALTIMORE – We’ve made two bold predictions in these Diaries. First, that the Fed will never make good on its promise to “normalize” interest rates. Second, that Donald J. Trump will not follow through on his threats of a trade…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The stock market continued with a modest bounce on Tuesday… but America’s automotive giant, General Motors, sank into the mud. The proximate cause was a tweet by President T., who threatened to remove federal subsidies to GM’s…

BALTIMORE – The stock market got a healthy bounce on Monday. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess. But you don’t have to guess. Because you don’t make money in the stock market from short-term moves. You’ll guess wrong…

By Bill Bonner November 22, 2018 Editor’s Note: As Bill writes his daily articles from the US, this post has been published a day behind. For Thanksgiving, Bill shares some little-known details around the American holiday. Dour Puritans… Thanksgiving during the Civil War……

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Today will be an interesting day. After falling the last two days, stocks should bounce. And the futures market says they will. But now, we will see what the speculators are really thinking. Will they want to…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Mr. Market must have gotten up on the wrong side of the bed on Monday. CNBC reports: The Dow fell 395 points to 25,017. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7 percent to 2,690 as the technology sector pulled…

Thy love afar is spite at home. – Ralph Waldo Emerson BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Another week. This one should be slow… with many people off for Thanksgiving. But you never know. The old-timers say the days before a holiday are…

DUBLIN – We’re in Dublin… en route to the USA for the holidays. Dublin is a vibrant, lively city. Not especially elegant, unlike Paris… and not especially dynamic, unlike London… Nor is it especially huge and imposing, like New York…

What I’ve learned at the Federal Reserve is a new language which is called “Fed speak.” You soon learn to mumble with great incoherence. – Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan DUBLIN – Alan Greenspan is alive and well. Aged…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We spent the last two days working on our barn. The gable ends had fallen down – probably a half century ago, or more – and needed to be replaced. We were eager to get the job…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – “The whole thing is a giant fraud,” was perhaps too much for an unprepared audience to take on. Your editor, in trying to explain why the U.S. money is “fake,” had perhaps bitten off more than he…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The muffled bells began tolling at precisely 11 o’clock on the 11th day of the 11th month of the year. And then, the poppies began to fall. St. Canice’s Cathedral in Kilkenny was marking the end of…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Wednesday was a big day for the U.S. stock market. October was forgiven. And forgotten. All is well, because the president and the new Democrat majority in the House are going to work together… …to rip off…

ARDMORE, IRELAND – On Tuesday, the voters spoke. The media – eager to attract eyeballs for their paid advertisers – spun the story as if it were the most important thing to happen since Adam ate the apple. But what…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

Fast Company reports: Internet freedom is in decline across much of the globe as various governments crack down on dissent and so-called fake news, according to an annual report from Freedom House, a nonprofit that receives much of its funding…

POITOU, FRANCE – What America most lacks is cynicism. People listen to a news conference without laughing. They read the headlines without even guffawing. They believe their “warriors” are protecting them abroad. At home, they think their elected officials have…

November 1, 2018 I once was what you are, and what I am, you also will be. – Memento mori epitaph from The Holy Trinity, a fresco by Masaccio POITOU, FRANCE – We came back to France to celebrate the…

My object in living is to unite My avocation and my vocation As my two eyes make one in sight. Only where love and need are one, And the work is play for mortal stakes, Is the deed ever really…

October 30, 2018 YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Back in Ireland for a few days, we take up an agreeable routine. We read and write in the morning. In the afternoon, we lay stone, closing the open gable ends of our old…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – A wonderfully fraudulent confrontation is setting up… On one side is Donald J. Trump, pretending that he has “already made America great again” and blaming the Fed for ruining his beautiful work. He wants the Fed to…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – The Dow fell another 600 points on Wednesday. Look for a rebound. But here’s a helpful trading hint: Don’t buy the dip. Bloomberg tells us why the pros are getting out: Stocks in the S&P 500 have…

DUBLIN – Trading on Wall Street began on Tuesday with a thud. Earnings were reported. And the Street was not happy. The Dow sold off by 500 points, recovering some of the loss during the course of the day. More…

WATERFORD, IRELAND – First, a news flash: Donald Trump is proposing another tax cut. “Huh?” wondered Washington and the media. “How are we going to pay for government? The deficit is already out of control.” “The Donald works in mysterious…

WATERFORD, IRELAND – Alleluia! We join with all Americans today in breathing a sigh of relief; justice is being done. The bad guys are being hunted down. Our pristine democracy – in its pure white, unblemished, unsullied, and unbelievable gown…

Editor’s Note: Bill is currently in Bermuda, speaking before readers attending the Legacy Investment Summit. In lieu of our usual article, below excerpt from his speech. In it, Bill reveals why, even in a world of seemingly infinite amounts of fake money…

HAMILTON, BERMUDA – Hmmm… The plot thickens. The Trump team came into office with what might have been a historic opportunity to drain the Swamp and take the feds down a peg. Mr. Trump even said he would eliminate the…

Time alone – oh, time will tell You think you are in heaven, but you living in hell – “Time Will Tell,” Bob Marley HAMILTON, BERMUDA – Where are we? Heaven or Hell? Bermuda feels like Heaven. The sea is…

HAMILTON, BERMUDA – Stocks rattled around on Monday; investors didn’t know where they wanted to go… so they went mostly nowhere. We turn to the newspapers… Invitation to Claptrap Opening a newspaper is always an invitation to claptrap. The New…

Where the remote Bermudas ride In th’ ocean’s bosom unespy’d, From a small boat, that row’d along, The list’ning winds receiv’d this song. What should we do but sing his praise That led us through the wat’ry maze Unto an…

BERLIN – Yesterday, we saw the past, the present, and the future… all stumbling over one another. On the march were the mistakes of the past 20 years – funded by trillions in fake money flushed into the markets by…

Berlin is the testicle of the West. When I want the West to scream, I squeeze on Berlin. – Nikita Khrushchev BERLIN – “You’d think they would have learned something. They lived with communism for 45 years. They should know…

BERLIN – Berlin is not a particularly attractive city – at least, not from our hotel room near the famous avenue, Unter den Linden. The buildings are all monumental, graceless, and blockish. For years, the city has attracted young people…

BERLIN – Almost everyone is disgusted by the manner in which now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed. But here at the Diary, we always look on the bright side, even when it’s pitch black. Disgrace and Revulsion The feelings of disgrace…

I was asked at last week’s news conference whether these forecasts are too good to be true – a reasonable question. – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell BUENOS AIRES – Last Thursday, while we were out of touch… the markets grew…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We pick up where we left off yesterday. The big winner from the new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, now called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), is the Swamp. Here’s Jeffrey J. Schott of the Peterson…

You shouldn’t pick up hitchhikers. I picked up one the other day, and he immediately said, “How do you know I’m not a serial killer?” I replied, “Do you know the odds of having two serial killers in the same…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Kavanaugh… Kavanaugh… Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh in the morning. Kavanaugh in the evening. Kavanaugh at supper time. It’s Kavanaugh 24/7. And so the mud wrestling – wretched, tawdry, and disgraceful – continues. But today, we turn away… back to…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – What was wrong with the thousands of generations that came before us? All their antique courtship rituals… sitting on the front porch, chaperones, and pitching woo. They must have been really stupid! Because all it took was…

MOLINOS, ARGENTINA – “Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake,” said Napoleon. In the 1970s, two of America’s biggest rivals were making big mistakes. Russia had been operating a centrally planned economy since the 1920s. China took…

BUENOS AIRES – Today, we woke up in Buenos Aires with a disagreeable headache… and a depressing hypothesis: First, it doesn’t matter whether Brett Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court or not; one more Deep State toad won’t make any…

FRANKFURT, GERMANY – Time is money. Money is time. Get over it. We lost a lot of time yesterday. We were meant to fly to Buenos Aires from Frankfurt. But things often go wrong… Our flight from Dublin was late,…

FRANKFURT, GERMANY – It’s hard to know where to start. We connect the dots… but the dots just get wackier. The stock market – already outrageously overpriced – goes higher! The deficit – already way out of control – just…

And it’s time, time, time And it’s time, time, time That you love. And it’s time, time, time. – “Time,” Tom Waits YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yes, it’s time that you always run out of. You wish you’d spent more time…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Here at the Diary, we try to connect the dots. Today, we connect some big ones… Fire and Brimstone The papers are full of fire and brimstone concerning Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh… and what happened in…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yesterday, we looked at what the U.S. republic has become: a vast swamp of idlers, chislers, cronies, and insiders… all angling for the meat in someone else’s burger. Politicians and public servants no longer retire to their…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Today, we take a look at the Swamp. Slimy, slippery, slithery – the Swamp stretches out from the banks of the Potomac and beyond. It is home to the government, of course, but also to whole industries……

Dear shadows, now you know it all, All the folly of a fight With a common wrong or right. The innocent and the beautiful Have no enemy but time; – “In Memory of Eva Gore-Booth and Con Markievicz,” William Butler…

The trees are in their autumn beauty, The woodland paths are dry, Under the October twilight the water Mirrors a still sky; Upon the brimming water among the stones Are nine-and-fifty swans. The nineteenth autumn has come upon me Since…

DUBLIN – We turned on the news this morning… What we discovered was a very delighted young man, explaining why the economy is running red-hot. The number of new job offers, he said, is greater than the number of new…

CHERBOURG, FRANCE – We’re on the ferry that will take us to Ireland. It is foggy outside. We can see nothing. This is just the beginning of a long trip that will take us to South America (where we get…

CHERBOURG, FRANCE – Yesterday, on our way to the Cherbourg ferry, we stopped in at a local farm fair in Normandy. On display were the best cows in the region, along with a demonstration of old farming equipment. A batteuse…

PARIS – You’ll recall that Fed policy always consists of the same three mistakes… 1) Keeping interest rates too low for too long, resulting in too much debt; 2) Raising interest rates to try to gently deflate the debt bubble;…

See me, feel me Touch me, heal me – “See Me, Feel Me,” The Who PARIS – Now, we come to the bang! But first, let’s check the headlines… Oh my… There’s somebody in the White House casting doubt on…

PARIS – We’re having breakfast on the Île Saint-Louis in Paris… the first stop on a long trip. First, it will take us to Normandy, then via the ferry to Ireland… thence to Argentina, Germany, and Bermuda… before returning to…

POITOU, FRANCE – The last days of summer are dwindling down… to a precious few. It is the best time of year here in France. The sun has cooled. The days are shorter; the nights are still and clear. The…

POITOU, FRANCE – So passeth the last days of summer… The sun sinks lower every day. We put things away. We close the shutters. And the cool night drafts seep in through the cracks. Stones Whisper Yesterday, we went to…

POITOU, FRANCE – The U.S. economy… all $20 trillion of it… explained in a single tweet (any similarity between this and one you might get from the president of the United States of America is pure coincidence): Just look at…

POITOU, FRANCE – On Monday, the Nasdaq set a new record. So did the S&P 500… From CNBC: Stocks ended sharply higher Monday as the United States and Mexico closed a new trade deal. Investors also assessed reassuring comments from…

Trouble ahead, Lady in red Take my advice you’d be better off dead Switchman’s sleeping, train hundred and two is On the wrong track and headed for you – “Casey Jones,” Grateful Dead POITOU, FRANCE – And so… the trains…

POITOU, FRANCE – Coming up the tracks from Washington… and getting up steam after the news of the last couple of days… is the ol’ Deep State Cannonball. Headed in the opposite direction is the most over-aged, overpriced, and overhyped…

POITOU, FRANCE – This just in… The man who made America great again in record time – only 18 months – with unemployment at half-century lows and stocks at all-time highs… now says he is “not thrilled” about the Fed’s…

PARIS – We came up to Paris to say goodbye to a daughter… who is headed back to the U.S. She chose La Closerie des Lilas for dinner, the restaurant made famous as a Hemingway hangout. And there, in front…

POITOU, FRANCE – Well that was easy! After less than two years in office, Trump says it’s “mission accomplished.” A presidential tweet: I have already MADE America Great Again, just look at the markets, jobs, military – setting records, and…

POITOU, FRANCE – Whoa! What’s this? The Dow popped up nearly 400 points last Thursday. On Friday just 4% off its all-time high of 26,616, reached on January 26 of this year. And you know what that means. Markets are…

POITOU, FRANCE – Coming into focus is a fuller picture of the worldwide financial crisis. This week, we began looking at Turkey, but only because Donald Trump sent an extraordinary tweet last Friday. In it, the president broke with tradition…

POITOU, FRANCE – We led off yesterday with the Turkey story… …and Friday’s tweet from Donald J. Trump: I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira,…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Do you follow what is going on in Turkey? That guy is a real moron…” Thus began a conversation at a party we attended Sunday night. Reuters provided some background: The Turkish lira has long been falling…

POITOU, FRANCE – Here at the Diary, we walk on the sunny side of the street, even at night. So today, we look at the bright side of bad news.

POITOU, FRANCE – The delusional, rock ’em-sock ’em, baroque news just keeps coming. We laugh readily; but even we are having a hard time keeping up. American Grifters Forbes claims that our Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, may be “one…

POITOU, FRANCE – In a weekend tweet, the president of the United States of America made a stock market forecast. He said that prices will go up “dramatically” as he brings his Art of the Deal methods to international trade…

Time will prove that the US eventually makes a fool of itself. – People’s Daily, official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party POITOU, FRANCE – We’ve made two bold, perhaps reckless, predictions. As to one of them, we’re beginning to…

POITOU, FRANCE – We were taken aback on Friday by the ferocity of our dear readers’ comments. What were they so sore about? we wondered.

POITOU, FRANCE – Last week, we guessed that The Donald would back down on his threat to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. Not because it would be a $50 billion tax on his own…

NORMANDY, FRANCE – Oh boy… the plot thickens. The New York Times reports: President Trump escalated his trade war with China on Wednesday, ordering his administration to consider more than doubling proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – As a republic matures, it slides down-market… The rails are silently greased by the cronies and grifters who control policy measures for their own benefit… while the rabble rallies to campaign slogans and admires TV idols. The…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – “The real question is whether the new dictatorship is one of the right or the left. I think the left is the bigger danger.” A friend, who prefers to remain anonymous, had asked us to imagine what…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Last Thursday, as predicted by after-hours trading, Facebook lost $122 billion in market value, more than the GDP of 145 of the world’s economies. The Zuck alone lost nearly as much as Iceland’s annual GDP. USA Today…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why….

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – What a spectacular summer! People may be frying eggs on the sidewalks of Algiers and fighting forest fires in Sweden, but here in Ireland, the heatwave is a delight. Farmers are grousing, of course, but we are…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The markets seemed to hold their breath… still, like dead leaves before a hurricane. The Dow barely moved on Monday. Jim Cramer, of TV’s Mad Money, says we’re waiting to see if the EU “caves” in Donald…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – It’s official. The White House says its tax cut didn’t pan out the way it expected. Instead of a projected deficit of $526 billion in 2019, the Office of Management and Budget now estimates Trump’s proposed budget…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The show is Donald Trump. And it plays to sold-out audiences, 24/7. Meanwhile, in the back of the crowd, the Deep State goes about its work – picking pockets. The political world thus unchanged… we move back…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We spat on our hands and attacked a barn roof yesterday. The stone building has been abandoned for at least 100 years. Nobody locally can recall it ever being used. Many didn’t even know it was there….

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – On Monday, the world’s press once again erupted in outrage. The hacks were upset… appalled… indignant. Of course, it was The Donald that set it off. But this time, they charged him not with being a boor…

LONDON – London is abuzz. Aflame. Doubled up in laughter. Shrieking in outrage. The U.S. president came. He saw. He went bonkers.

POITOU, FRANCE – Today, we will look at a handful of dots. You’ll have to connect them yourself.

POITOU, FRANCE – President Trump escalated the trade war on Wednesday, making a kamikaze attack on a vast armada of Chinese imports – $200 billion in total – headed for California. The Chinese say they will retaliate.

NORMANDY, FRANCE – Clowns to the left of us… jokers to the right – what a hoot it is to watch them jump and howl. Trade barriers… LGBT bathroom policies… the Dow… Elizabeth Warren… Rudolph Giuliani… unemployment… QT [quantitative tightening]……

POITOU, FRANCE – Investors chose to look at the half-full part of the glass on Monday. Our suggestion: They should look more closely.

NORMANDY, FRANCE – “I’d much rather do a funeral than a marriage,” says a brother-in-law, a Baptist minister. “I’ve never seen a funeral fail.”

POITOU, FRANCE – Last week was a slow week, interrupted by the Fourth of July holiday. Stocks bounced around a bit, going nowhere special. Even the Trump Show had been relatively calm, with no new ratings boosts. Rumors of a…

POITOU, FRANCE – Arnold at West Point… Sherman at Atlanta… Powell at the UN… We Americans remembered our heroes on Wednesday. And here at the Diary’s headquarters in rural France, we recalled one of the greatest of them all…

PARIS – We spend a lot of time overseas – mostly in Europe and South America. This is both good and bad. On the good side, the distance helps give us more – or fresh – perspective. We see how…

PARIS – We came up to Paris on Sunday night for a meeting… and to celebrate a wedding anniversary. “Doesn’t Paris make you feel young again?” asked the person with whom we were recalling 34 years of married life, much…

POITOU, FRANCE – No big movement in the stock market on Thursday. In politics, the Senate passed an $800 billion boondoggle for farmers. The feds promised to cover crop insurance costs and pay farmers if their harvests come in short….

POITOU, FRANCE – The corks popped Wednesday night all over the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. Architects anticipated grander and gaudier new assignments. Lawyers eyed their new vacation homes on the Delaware coast. The movers and shakers celebrated another victory… …and…

Trade wars are good, and easy to win. – Donald J. Trump POITOU, FRANCE – “War is the health of the [Deep] state,” said 19th century writer Randolph Bourne. Of course, war is also very costly and harmful to individuals….

POITOU, FRANCE – “Trade fears hit stocks,” began this morning’s typical Wall Street report. Yesterday, we promised not to mention trade again. But we had our fingers crossed! Besides, through no fault of our own, it popped back into the…

The rich man’s wealth is his strong city, and as a high wall in his own conceit. – Proverbs 18:11 POITOU, FRANCE – We are following up on yesterday’s discussion by connecting a few final dots. Then, we promise we…

The rich man’s wealth is his strong city, and as a high wall in his own conceit. – Proverbs 18:11 POITOU, FRANCE – “Render unto Caesar” is how we began Friday’s note. Today, we dig deeper to answer a Dear…

Thursday, June 21, 2018: The longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. POITOU, FRANCE – “Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s” is a line from Jesus of Nazareth. Typically clever, and almost evasive, it left open the…

You’re a cowardly, leftist moron, to say the least. – Comment from a Dear Reader, received yesterday POITOU, FRANCE – Over the weekend, we drove down to the South of France for a birthday party. It was in the Tarn…

POITOU, FRANCE – We wait for the world to fall apart. The Dow is still more than 1,000 points below its high; so we presume the primary trend is down. Treasury yields – on the 10-year note – are near…

POITOU, FRANCE – On Thursday came word that the European Central Bank followed through, just like the Fed. After $2.7 trillion in “stimulus,” it has officially taken its foot off the pedal. No more bond purchases by the end of…

POITOU, FRANCE – Well, it looks like we were wrong about everything. Everything. The Fed. Donald J. Trump. The stock market. The economy. Even the weather. Yesterday, we looked at the sky and forecast rain. Instead, the sun came out….

POITOU, FRANCE – What a rollicking good time we’ve had these past few days. The G7… the North Korean summit… Canada’s “backstabber” chief… trade wars… U.S. midterm elections… Did any generation before us enjoy so much cheap entertainment? Place in…

POITOU, FRANCE – You can divide the world’s people – all its bumblers, fumblers, fools, and saints – into two categories. There are the decent people who go about their business trying to improve their lives by honest toil, invention,…

PARIS – Last week, it was war with Europe. This week, it’s bombs over Toronto. Plans are being drawn up for two walls. One across the southern border to keep Mexicans out. And one across the 49th parallel to keep…

All earthly empires die. Is this the end? Only God knows. – St. Augustine, 413 AD POITOU, FRANCE – Last Thursday, in advance of the G7 pow-wow at the weekend, Donald Trump tweeted his position on trade: If we charge…

Vernacular: A vernacular, or vernacular language, is the language or variety of a language used in everyday life by the common people of a specific population. It is distinguished from a standard, national, or literary language or a lingua franca, used…

PARIS – Well, it’s all settled. This is the greatest economy that the world has ever seen. The president said so himself on Twitter over the weekend: Tax CUTS are working. America is WINNING BIG under President Trump! The Nasdaq hit a new record…

PARIS – “Trump declares war on Europe,” says yesterday’s headline in Le Monde. We came over on the ferry from Southern Ireland. It takes longer than flying. But we have our car here, which makes it easier to get around –…

The show is Trump, and it is sold-out performances everywhere. – Donald J. Trump, Playboy magazine, 1990 YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Commentators and political analysts have consistently misread our president. They try to understand him using traditional political categories. Is he a conservative…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – When you’ve got a chainsaw, you cut down a tree. And when you’ve got control of monetary and fiscal policy… you go to work on an economy. In both cases, you leave them in pieces.

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – What a beautiful time… to be in Ireland! In the evening, the sun lingers in the sky, lighting up the millions of snowflake-like willow fluff. Like cattails, they waft around on the breeze, so light that they…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – You may be wondering what our discussion last week of “Bad Guy” Theory had to do with our beat… money. We wondered, too. We used the Memorial Day holiday to figure it out. So let us begin by peeking…

You already know about our ranch in Argentina. As we explained last year, it is not very productive or practical. It is too far, too high, and too dry. It is marginal in almost every way. The cows are too…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Nothing much to report from the markets… So we gird our loins, put on our armor, and go into battle. We’re anticipating a fight.

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The Dow turned down a bit on Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 3.07%. As long as neither revisits its recent top and bottom, respectively, we presume the “primary trend” for both the bond market and…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The press was abuzz last weekend with comments on the killings in Gaza. We do not normally take an interest in the affairs of the region. It’s none of our business… there’s nothing we can do anything…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Our screen last Friday was showing the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note with a yield of 3.11% – further evidence that the credit cycle has turned. Everything else is noise. Primary Trend We got the idea from the…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – It is a typical May day here in Ireland. The temperature is 48 degrees this morning. It is cloudy and gray. We are staying over here in Youghal… pronounced “yawl”… so that we can keep up with…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – First, we note that the 10-year T-note yield is holding above 3%. It is on its way to 4%, we think, and will herald the final destruction of the great, fake boom of 2009–2018. Meanwhile… Death by…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – On Monday, a small landmark was passed. A tweet yesterday morning: For the first time since the financial crisis, the 3-month Treasury yield has surpassed the yield on the S&P 500. Small investors look for big, risky…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Why was Donald Trump elected? What kind of accident was this? The liberal intelligentsia has been trying to come up with an answer – not just any answer, but one that accomplishes two very important purposes. It…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Last week was a good week for stocks… and a good week for the Deep State. On Wall Street, it almost seemed like the good ol’ days, as the Dow rose to a seven-week high and inflation…

It is more proper that law should govern than any one of the citizens. – Aristotle, Politics, Book III By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners PORTLAW, IRELAND – Yesterday, we took a look at what was happening in Argentina. A shorthand…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – “Now that’s a rate hike!” Our colleague James Wells sent a report from The New York Times. It told us that the central bank of Argentina wasn’t fooling around. Instead of pussyfooting with 0.25% per quarter rate hikes…

DUBLIN – Last week ended on a high note: “Stocks rally after jobless rate sinks to 3.9%,” said a headline at Bloomberg on Friday. “Jobless Rate at 17-Year Low,” added The Wall Street Journal front-page on Saturday. “Solid,” was how analysts described…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Not much to report on from the financial world. Nothing much happening. But when the news restarts, we predict it will be bad. In the meantime…

So, so you think you can tell Heaven from hell… Blue skies from pain – Pink Floyd, “Wish You Were Here” PORTLAW, IRELAND – We left off yesterday with the biggest question in philosophy hanging from our lips like a cold cigarette……

You must remember this. A kiss is still a kiss, a sigh is still a sigh. The fundamental things apply As time goes by. – Dooley Wilson, “As Time Goes By” PORTLAW, IRELAND – Poor Florence Newton. The young woman…

OVER A BAR, IN YOUGHAL, IRELAND – “Here in Ireland, it is bad luck to cut down a holly tree,” says our weekend helper, Ronan. “Oh… and I don’t think your wife would like to know about that one, either.”…

εἴ τις οὐ θ έλει ἐργάζεσθαι μηδὲ ἐσθι έτω eí tis ou thélei ergázesthai mēdè esthiétō (He who does not work, neither shall he eat.) – Attributed to St. Paul BARCELONA – Errata: This will come as a shock to…

BARCELONA – We left off yesterday trying to connect the dots. Abandon traditional forms, rules, and customs, we noticed… and you are most likely on your way to disaster. Most “innovative” architecture, for example, is usually ugly and often dysfunctional….

BARCELONA – The Dow stumbled on Tuesday, ending down some 425 points. Nothing serious. More importantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has crept up towards 3% this week, briefly hitting the milestone on Tuesday. Our research department is…

BARCELONA – The streets were crowded on Monday night. On the main ramblas, so many people were strolling about that we could barely cross the intersection. Many of the women held a single red rose. It was the Day of Roses…

ON THE CELTIC SEA – We drove up to Cherbourg yesterday, boarded a ferry, and are now cruising towards Ireland. The trip takes nearly an entire day, but the wifi works onboard… so we were able to stay in contact….

NORMANDY, FRANCE – Bitcoin is making itself useful. Bloomberg is on the case: “Bolívar to Bitcoin Market Hits Record $1 Million Per Day” The Venezuelan bolívar to bitcoin market reached a record on Tuesday, as the dollar-starved nation increasingly seeks…

PARIS – “Your flight has been canceled.” Those were not the words we were hoping to hear when we got to Dulles International Airport last night. But Air France is on strike. So we quickly changed plans… and traveled to…

BALTIMORE – Last week, we attended a conference in Miami. Several crypto enthusiasts were there… including Teeka Tiwari and our own “in-house” expert, one of our sons. The price of bitcoin has fallen from a high of around $20,000 to…

A cigarette that bears a lipstick’s traces An airline ticket to romantic places – Billie Holiday, “These Foolish Things (Remind Me of You)” BALTIMORE – South Beach… Last week, we were sitting in the hotel restaurant in Miami Beach having…

MIAMI – Whew! Hold onto your restaurant reservations… your bitcoin codes… and your medical records; you might be able to use them after all. The Dow rose 293 points last Thursday as “war fears” declined. As you know, all of…

MIAMI – This week, we’ve been exploring how mock battles can go wrong. In one corner, we have The American Dreamer: the Blond Bombshell himself, Donald J. Trump. In the other, there is Xi Jinping of the Great Red Hope,…

MIAMI – Guggenheim investment fund’s global chief investment officer Scott Minerd predicts a 40% decline for the Dow… mostly in 2019. He says the U.S. economy is on a “collision course with disaster.” He’s right – at least about the…

MIAMI – During the legendary 1998 wrestling match known as “Hell in a Cell,” two professional wrestlers faced off: “The Undertaker” and Mick Foley, aka “Mankind.” The idea was for the two to do their usual stunts – poking, whacking,…

BUENOS AIRES – Our stay in Argentina was cut short. One of our two daughters had a baby. We hasten thither to see her, our fourth grandchild. In the meantime… Usual Errors What we were getting at last week was that there…

SALTA, ARGENTINA – Up. Down. Up. Down. We followed the action on Wall Street yesterday, wondering… where was it going? The headlines told us that investors were nervous about a trade war. Bloomberg was on the case early: Fears of…

SALTA, ARGENTINA – Up, down. Up, down. What to make of it? The stock market is in denial, struggling with the idea, not quite willing to give in… not quite willing to admit that the bull market of 2009–2018 is…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Uh oh… That poor girl has Down syndrome,” Elizabeth noticed. “How do you know?” “You can see it. It used to be called ‘mongoloidism’ because of the way it distorts the face.” Mountain Party We had been…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Two big surprises on Sunday, both concerning the White House. First, President Trump announced his long-awaited shake-up of his staff. In a 7 a.m. tweet, the president said: Time for Big staff changes. I need complete LOYALTY…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Big Tech led the way up. It will probably be in the lead on the way down, too. Bloomberg: The market’s darlings just suffered the worst day in at least three years. The NYSE FANG+ index, tracking…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – All hail the techs! The stock market bounced back with a big gain on Monday. The buy-the-dippers gained a couple of points. The future can wait; the big crash is still ahead.

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Friday evening after the bell rang on the New York Stock Exchange, traders and analysts, sell side and buy side, 2018 quants and deep value dinosaurs, million-dollar-a-year partners as well as the order takers and clerks, all…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We got up before dawn this morning. We’re taking a cluster of our grapes over to the neighboring ranch, Tacuil. There, Raul – the winemaker – will tell us if the sugar content is high enough to…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Over the weekend, we went to visit our new property. The house, which we are renovating, is on the far side of the river. We’re just realizing what a challenge that poses. In order to get over to…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow fluttered on Monday. The Nasdaq, too. Our guess is that the smart money is pulling out first. Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, Bill Gross – many Wall Street giants have already announced that they are…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Nothing much to report from Wall Street, Washington, or the ranch… So we continue our look back at what we have learned so far… Most of what we know, of course, is what everyone else knows, too:…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We’re getting into an agreeable and relaxed routine here at the ranch. We go for a hike up the little hill behind the house in the morning. A trail zig-zags up, with the stations of the cross…

The ides of March are come. Ay, Caesar, but not gone. – Shakespeare’s The Tragedy of Julius Caesar GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Readers frequently accuse us of being idle wreckers, tearing down without building up, criticizing wantonly while offering no constructive advice….

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – TrimTabs, an investment research firm, reports that stock buybacks are running at twice the rate of this time last year. Corporation managements are taking their tax cut money and delivering it to shareholders… and to themselves. Skin…

And the Lord God said unto the serpent, Because you have done this, you are cursed above all cattle, and above every beast of the field; upon your belly shall you go, and dust shall you eat all the days…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Investors were cheered up last Friday by the jobs report, which showed that the number of new jobs is about equal to the high set back in 2006 – just before the last crisis. As near as…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We continue our exploration… …of why the stock market is a fraud… …why investors’ savings are not really funding U.S. business… … why instead, they are aiding and abetting a multitrillion-dollar rip-off… …and how the ripper-offers are…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – President Trump says he’s sticking to his guns on trade tariffs. We’re glad to see it. We’re tired of whiny, snively politicians – on this hand… on that hand… equivocating… backtracking… double-talking. It’s good to see a…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The big news last week was Trump’s hasty decision to impose tariffs on aluminum and steel. We were happy to see it. We were looking for an example – undeniable, indisputable, and in-your-face, jackass – to illustrate…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – This weekend, we drove down to the valley to check out the new farm. It’s about 500 acres along the river, abandoned for 50 years, but can be irrigated and put back into service. And it’s a…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Another miracle! It rained. “We got 200 millimeters (about 8 inches) this year,” reported the capataz, Gustavo. After two years of drought, finally, the fields, mountains, and pastures are green. And the river that separates the house…

SALTA, ARGENTINA – “Stocks Slide After Powell Testimony,” reads a headline at Bloomberg. The Dow dropped 380 points on Wednesday, leaving February as the worst month in two years. What did the new Fed chief say? Only that he thought…

BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA – We went to dinner last night at a little neighborhood restaurant in Palermo Soho. It was already crowded when we arrived after 9 p.m., with a warm buzz of conversation. But scarcely had we been there…

BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA – Another good day for Wall Street on Monday. The Dow rose more than 300 points. And sources tell Bloomberg that the Fed is ready to accept higher levels of inflation – say, 2.5% – before it…

MIAMI – As expected, the stock market seems to be on the mend. After the scare of two weeks ago, prices are firming. And the Fed is giving the economy the all-clear. Bloomberg: “Beyond full employment” is a phrase that…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – From south of the border, we get a peek into the how to make a bad situation worse. “Venezuela Launches Its Own Cryptocurrency,” reports The Wall Street Journal. The cash-strapped nation – which is experiencing hyperinflation, an increasingly…

Apollo, Apollo! God of all ways, but only Death’s to me, Once and again, O thou, Destroyer named, Thou hast destroyed me, thou, my love of old! – [In Aeschylus’ Agamemnon, Cassandra regrets ever having laid eyes on Apollo] PORTLAW, IRELAND…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – We spent the weekend exploring our new property, meeting neighbors, and getting to know the country. We had seen our new house. But not the land. So we put on a pair of “wellies” and went to…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Vignettes from Ireland: ** We walked into the tourist office in Youghal (pronounced “Yall”) in County Cork. Two young men were there. Curly hair. Cute. Something odd about them. Too carefully groomed and well dressed for the…

Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;…

I’ve got so much honey You know the bees envy me I’ve got a sweeter song Oh, than the birds in the trees Oh and I know, I know, I know what you’re gonna say What, what could make me…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Ireland is a friendly place. People are relaxed and direct. They tell you things… even without you asking. For example, there seems to be a curse on the property next door. Broken Heart “Oh, yes…” the custodian…

BALLYNATRAY, IRELAND – We have bought a place nearby. But it will be months before it is habitable. In the meantime, we need a place to stay. So we’re renting a place on the estate next door. It’s an apartment built over…

WATERFORD, IRELAND – Let’s begin by feasting, like a vulture (many thanks to the Dear Reader who suggested it in Friday’s mailbag), on Friday’s roadkill headlines: Bloomberg: “Government Shutdown Begins” CNBC: “Dow Closes Down 1,030 Points” The New York Times:…

PARIS – Yesterday’s screens were full of green numbers (things going up). Investors may breathe a sigh of relief. “Whew! Glad that’s over…” they are likely to say. But it’s way too early to relax… and way too late to…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

PARIS – “Keep your eye on Friday,” the old-timers used to say. When the pros are worried, they sell on Friday so they can spend the weekend without sweating. When they are confident, they buy on Friday so they don’t…

CORK, IRELAND – “U.S. Stocks Drop as Treasury Sell-Off Gains Steam,” was headline news at Bloomberg last Thursday. Meanwhile, bitcoin tumbled toward $8,000, wiping about $100 billion off its market value in just 24 hours. And the price of the…

CORK, IRELAND – “Is the bull market in stocks finally over?” asks a Bloomberg headline. We don’t know the answer. No one knows the future. Still, people buy umbrellas even when it isn’t raining. If we were you… looking at…

CORK, IRELAND – The U.S. president gave his assessment of the situation on Tuesday night. No mention was made of the fact that the country is going broke… …or that rising interest rates threaten the fake-money system… …or that tax…

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why.]…

WATERFORD, IRELAND – We are making Ireland the hub of our global publishing business. So we need a place to live here. The last couple of days have been spent prospecting. “We want something with character… a challenge… something we…

BALTIMORE – What is it about Davos? Great… powerful… smart people go there… …and turn into knuckleheads. We would be there, too. But yet again, the invitation committee seems to have lost our address. Instead, Donald J. Trump will have…

BALTIMORE – The Davos crowd was told that the world economy is minting one new billionaire every two days… Eighty-two percent of the world’s wealth generated last year went to the “One Percent.” That leaves 18% for the bottom 99%….

BALTIMORE – The titans of one era become the schmucks of the next. Marshal Michel Ney, one of France’s greatest soldiers, was executed by his own people… who later put up a statue of him in Paris. General Robert E….

BALTIMORE – Oh, Dear Reader, imagine our alarm! Feel our pain! We were like the boy who saw on the news that his school was on fire. When we left the office on Friday… the federal government was just hours…

BALTIMORE – What’s that in the distance? It looks like a cloud of dust barely visible on the horizon. It’s the relief column, sent from Ft. Fed! Hooray! Confidence of the Damned And yes, it is still a long way…

BALTIMORE – When we left you yesterday, we were describing why the situation is getting dangerous for investors, and how the lessons learned over the last 30 years may backfire in the next crisis. “Dow over 26,000… bitcoin under $10,000,”…

BALTIMORE – Like a “Closing Out Sale” that never seems to end, people are beginning to think that this “Stock Market Surge” may not be totally on the level. Unlike an honest bull market, it may never end… Classic Top?…

BALTIMORE – Our main man in Argentina, Pancho, came to Baltimore last week. Dapper and charming, Pancho has become more than just an administrator for the ranch. He has become a trusted advisor to the family. We began the conversation…

BALTIMORE – We recently had our DNA checked. Unsurprisingly, it showed that we are what we thought we were – Irish, English, and Scottish. But we are something more. In addition to the Irish riffraff, English aristocracy, and Scottish bagpipers…

BALTIMORE – “Investors Prepare for Inflation,” warned the front page of The Wall Street Journal last Wednesday. “Rising Treasury Yields Ripple Through Markets,” it added on Thursday. “U.S. Treasurys lead bonds sell-off,” the Financial Times piled on, “as investors fear…

BALTIMORE – “Tax Law’s Effect Fuels Farm Outcry,” read one Wall Street Journal headline on Wednesday. “A provision inserted into the tax code during Senate and House negotiations in December…” begins the descriptive paragraph. Who inserts a provision? A selfless citizen serving…

BALTIMORE – Donald Trump has shown the way… He’s revealed the White House as the No. 1 showbiz gig. Now, others want to get in on the act. Oprah for President! The latest reports tell us that Oprah might run…

The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars. – H.L. Mencken We were taken aback by some dear readers’ anger last week. Conservative… liberal… Republican… Democrat – readers were almost unanimous. They didn’t appreciate the mocking…

BALTIMORE – The big news last Friday was that the Dow hit a new record of over 25,000. We’ll get to that in a minute… we’re still looking over our shoulders at last year’s performance. Let’s see, the top-performing U.S….

BALTIMORE – We owe Donald Trump a hearty and sincere “thank you.” Not only did he save us a lot of money (see below)… but he also helped us better understand how government actually works. What “The Donald” understood better…

Back in grade school, a teacher once told us that “anybody can grow up to be president.” In 2017, Donald Trump proved it. In high school, we learned that “anything can be used as money.” In 2017, bitcoin proved it….

BALTIMORE – Our work here at the Diary is to connect the dots. And we begin connecting the dots of 2018 by looking over our shoulder at the brightest dots we connected last year. Three remarkable things happened in 2017… One for…

Editor’s Note: Happy New Year from Bill and all of us here at Bonner & Partners. We look forward to another great year at Bill’s Diary. Today, Bill kicks off 2018 with some timeless wisdom for securing long-term prosperity. Today, three basic…

Editor’s Note: The Bonner & Partners offices are closed for the holidays. Today, Bill examines what it means to live well, and why America’s boomers need perspective now more than ever. What should you do if you are running out…

It was 4 a.m. I had no doubt about that. The clock said as much. And who am I to argue with clocks? If ever we cannot trust them, the country is done for. But what were those voices? At…

BALTIMORE – In all the excitement surrounding the passing of the GOP tax bill, we almost missed it. But on Tuesday, as stocks rose to a record high in anticipation of a huge payoff to corporate America, bonds fell. The…

BALTIMORE – After a year of defeat and disorder, it finally looks like Republicans have managed a legislative victory. The stock market celebrated Monday with the Dow hitting a new record high. “Buy the rumor; sell the news.” That’s what…

BALTIMORE – We attended a family wedding in Nicaragua over the weekend. Asked to make a little speech, we opined on the differences between men and women, and the sacred role of marriage… the ultimate and most ancient win-win deal. As…

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – What have we learned so far? Let’s spell it out as a series of axioms. Real money must be connected to the real economy of energy, time, and resources. Traditionally, gold makes the connection. (In the…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – “This area is going to grow for a long time,” said a real estate agent yesterday. We’ve been looking at property for sale. We like it down here in Nicaragua. And we have a feeling the…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – As we outlined yesterday, Americans are richer than ever. U.S. household assets stand at $97 trillion. All over the world, “wealth” is surging, too… with the value of global stocks near a record high of $100 trillion….

[Editor’s note: because Bill is usually writing from the US, we don’t publish his copy until the day after he’s written it. So if you’re a bit confused as to why he’s predicting events that have already happened, that’s why….

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Yesterday, we wrote about business as usual. Despite the sound and fury of the last 12 months, nothing much has changed. Headed for Bankruptcy The U.S. is a little further advanced toward the final stages of becoming…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – The mainstream press seems obsessed by the harm being done to Americans… by foreigners. Specifically, it is alleged that the Ruskies interfered and thus tainted the otherwise pristine U.S. presidential elections. Iran and North Korea may…

BALTIMORE – How ‘bout that bitcoin! It went up another $2,000 yesterday. Does it go down, too? We think we know the answer. But let’s look at more familiar ESPs. This week, we’ve been focusing on Extremely Simple Patterns, or ESPs….

BALTIMORE – Bitcoin rose another $1,000 on Wednesday. Whoopee! And whoa… What’s going on? Yesterday, we described an Extremely Simple Pattern (ESP). You put “money” into an economy and prices float up. Take it away, and prices fall. Prices float on…

BALTIMORE – Are you rich yet? We hope so. Everybody else seems to be. The U.S. stock market is up more than 20% so far this year. Our country-specific stock portfolio is up about 30%. As we explained back in…

BALTIMORE – “Don’t be absurd…” The distaff part of the family has a contrary opinion. It concerns the drift of our Diary last week. In short, she thinks we are talking nonsense. New Aristocracy Long-term Diary sufferers know we often talk nonsense. Out motto…

BALTIMORE – Last Tuesday, we made $4,000 per hour when bitcoin rose. Then, on Wednesday, we lost $5,000 per hour when it fell. Whee! Look for an on-the-scene report from our in-house crypto expert below… In the meantime… Last-Ditch Effort…

BALTIMORE – Yesterday, we saw the soul of America. We drove by a house so imposing… so monstrously ugly… so laughably pretentious that we almost drove off the road staring at it. On a suburban lot, it was as though…

BALTIMORE – On the front page of both The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times yesterday: bitcoin. It was just the other week that we reported that bitcoin was about to hit the $8,000 mark. Now, it has passed $11,000… “This is just…

BALTIMORE – Can you live well on Social Security alone? Yesterday, we told an old friend it was possible. But is it? It depends on what you mean by “living well.” Rich and Poor Today, we lift anchor and unfurl…

BALTIMORE – Bitcoin blew by another milestone. Yesterday morning, the world’s first cryptocurrency hit a new record of $9,680. It started off the year trading at just $997. “I can’t believe what happened,” said a friend. “I bought $1,000 worth…

Editor’s Note: Bill Bonner if off for Thanksgiving holiday. Today, we invite you to enjoy this classic Diary essay Bill penned in 1999. I turned to my trusty assistant… Beirne White… this morning. “Beirne,” I said gravely, “tell me about Thanksgiving in Mississippi.”…

NEW YORK – “I’M WITH THE PERV,” screams yesterday’s New York Post headline. The accompanying photos show Donald J. Trump and the accused child molester Roy Moore. There are those who despise the Alabama Senate candidate. And there are those who see…

NEW YORK – Salvator Mundi, said to be by Leonardo da Vinci, is the world’s most expensive painting. Last Wednesday, at auction, each square inch was valued at nearly $1 million – including the bummed-up, restored, and damaged parts. The painting…

BALTIMORE – Have we been too cynical? Last Thursday, the House passed its big tax-cut bill. The Dow popped up 187 points on the news. A reporter asked us later: “Will the Dow go to 40,000?” Assuming a tax bill…

BALTIMORE – How about those techs! As Chris Lowe reported in Wednesday’s Market Insight column, the eight most valuable tech companies in the world – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google parent Alphabet, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent – have added $1.7 trillion…

BALTIMORE – We were disappointed to see the pedestal… naked… forlorn… its statue gone… its purpose defunct. For more than a century, the bronze statue of Supreme Court Justice Roger B. Taney – gravely pondering the weighty issues of the…

BALTIMORE – On Monday, Caracas rolled out the red carpet – literally. In one of the funniest shows in modern capitalism, bondholders were invited to a special meeting in the Venezuelan capital. A few turned up. They wanted to know…

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – “What’s wrong with them?” In front of us was a group of young women, tying their surfboards on top of their Jeep. At first glance, nothing at all. They had come from a nearby surf camp…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Last Thursday, Senate Republicans announced their proposed tax reform measures. Instead of eliminating the inheritance tax – like the House version does – the Senate proposal would increase the exemption by $5 million per person. And…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Over the weekend, bitcoin rose to more than $7,500 – a 200% gain from when we bought in June. “Is that all?” replies a colleague. “I got into a bitcoin miner at 2 cents a share….

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – If you run over a pedestrian in Washington, D.C., it might be wise to keep going. Because the person under your bumper could be a swamp rat. In fact, it could be Jerome Powell, whom President…

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – We’re down in Nicaragua giving a little speech to a group of financial analysts and publishers. I’ll be sharing the full contents of the speech with members of our Inner Circle advisory soon. A view of the coastline…

POITOU, FRANCE – “The Age of Easy Money Is Nearly Over,” reads a headline at Bloomberg. Oh yeah? We suspect that it has hardly begun… stay tuned. Destroying Capital In the meantime, we are exploring the past to get hints…

POITOU, FRANCE – We have been in almost constant motion for the last 10 days or so. It’s nice to be back at home… if only for a few days. One of the pretensions of modern design is that things…

POITOU, FRANCE – For nearly two decades, the world’s central banks have labored hard, sweating to coax more digital money out of a stony and grudging economy. More than $20 trillion did they bring forth via QE (buying stocks and…

PARIS – “Has he gotten to the verb yet?” we asked Elizabeth. We were listening to a speech at a birthday party for an old friend. Alas, the speech was in German, a language we don’t speak. Still, we laughed…

I found my thrill On Blueberry Hill On Blueberry Hill When I found you The moon stood still On Blueberry Hill And lingered until My dream came true – “Blueberry Hill,” Fats Domino PARIS – Fats Domino died last week….

PORTO, PORTUGAL – The more we see of Portugal, the better we like it. The people are friendly. The streets are clean and safe. The old buildings – in the Iberian baroque style – are beautiful. And the food is…

LISBON, PORTUGAL – In Japan, incumbent prime minister Shinzō Abe has won a new super majority in parliament. And you know what that means? More laughs. Dumbbell Policies Yes, the whole world is doubling down on dumbbell policies that don’t…

LISBON, PORTUGAL – It is still warm here in Lisbon. Like summer. We’re staying at a hotel on the Avenida da Liberdade, with large plane trees shading the wide sidewalks and grand old buildings lining the streets. Bill explores the…

LISBON, PORTUGAL – Lisbon is a beautiful city. It was so poor and so remote, it missed out on the modernization that ruined many other cities in Europe. Wisely neutral during World War I and World War II, it wasn’t…

POITOU, FRANCE – Autumn has finally imposed itself. The yellow and gold leaves drift down… morning fog rises… and the remains of the day grow cold. We now have a fire in the fireplace all day long. A couple of…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Trump did this…” “Trump did that…” The news media can barely keep up with him. Sometimes, the calumnies against the president are idle gossip. Sometimes, they greatly understate the magnitude of the crime. He “disrespects” a dead…

PARIS – Yesterday, we described what we believe is the true source of today’s bubbly markets: fake money from the Deep State’s finance arm, central banks. Today, we connect more dots. Specifically, we explore why the stock market celebrated after…

PARIS – Whoa! Bitcoin is up $1,457 since the start of the month; at writing, one bitcoin sells for $5,670. Look at the Dow. It is on its way to 23,000. And don’t even mention the tech darlings – Facebook,…

PARIS – “Don’t worry. We’re not hysterical like you North Americans.” We had arrived at the security gate at Salta Airport on our trip back from the ranch to Buenos Aires, with an onward ticket to Paris, France. In our…

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – We spent the night at a hotel in the nearby village of Molinos and then drove back to see the new farm. We hoped that our spirits might have revived after a good night’s sleep… or maybe…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – What a marvelous show! We don’t know what’s funnier: watching “The Donald”… or watching the media try to make sense of him. On this occasion, the media is right. Challenging Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to an…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Damn!” Ramón had been so absorbed in laying out his plans for our new farm that he forgot to put the truck into 4-wheel drive. When he finally realized he needed it, it was too late. The…

BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA – First, a news update. The Washington Post: The Republican Party has largely abandoned its platform of fiscal restraint, pivoting sharply in a way that could add trillions of dollars in federal debt over the next decade….

LONDON – By the time you read this, we’ll have given a speech to an investment group in London. Investors will want to know what’s ahead. Will prices go up? Or down? “Yes,” we will answer. At best, we will…

TEMPLECOMBE, ENGLAND ­– We took the train from Paris to London… and then from London to the village of Templecombe in Somerset. We came to visit a friend. “This was the home of Lord Uxbridge,” our host pointed to an…

POITOU, FRANCE – You’ve heard us say more than once: We’ve never met a tax cut we didn’t like. But we never met a tax cut like the one Team Trump is now proposing… The idea of a tax cut…

POITOU, FRANCE – We pause. We take a deep breath. We cease our normal sarcasm and kvetching. Today, we give thanks to the global elite… the people to whom we owe so much. Historic High The thought came to us…

POITOU, FRANCE – As you plant… so shall you reap. Everything has its season. Stock markets. Empires. Tax cuts. Here in France it is mushroom season. This weekend, our friend François divulged his secrets. He offered to show us where…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Do you still have that physical bitcoin I gave you?” A couple of years ago, a friend gave us a physical bitcoin, suggesting we should take an interest in cryptocurrencies. “I hope you didn’t lose it. That…

POITOU, FRANCE – “How about your man, Trump?” was the conversation starter at last night’s cocktail party. We heard a version of that question at practically every social event this summer here in France. It is an invitation to make…

POITOU, FRANCE – From comedy… to farce… to tragedy. We laugh. We guffaw. And then we wish we hadn’t bought a house in inner-city Baltimore. Already, in Charm City, police helicopters peer into our windows… sirens wail at 3 a.m.……

In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground; for out of it wast thou taken: for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return. – Genesis POITOU, FRANCE – Autumn has…

POITOU, FRANCE – It’s autumn already. A heavy fog covers the farm this morning, the first this year. September can be beautiful here. Not yet cold. But no longer hot. The grass is green, and the sky is clear. Then,…

POITOU, FRANCE – We took the ferry back to the mainland after our stay on Île d’Yeu with two kittens in our luggage. The kittens were scheduled for drowning if no homes could be found. Elizabeth volunteered to adopt them. One of…

ÎLE D’YEU, FRANCE – Today, we climb a hill and have a look around. Down below is a hidden cove on Île d’Yeu: The hidden cove on the French island of Île d’Yeu But let’s get serious…

ÎLE D’YEU, FRANCE – We are spending a couple of days with friends out on a tiny and charming island in the Atlantic, Île d’Yeu. We took the ferry from the Fromentine harbor, near the city of Nantes, on Sunday….

ILE D’YEU, FRANCE – Last week, the plot did not so much thicken as congeal. There’s no changing it now – the cameras are rolling… the costumes are on… and everyone knows his lines. President Trump went further in becoming…

PARIS – First, the news. Cryptocurrencies took a beating after Jamie Dimon – the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, a bank that makes billions from today’s fake-money system – called bitcoin a “fraud.” Bitcoin – the leading cryptocurrency by market value…

NORMANDY, FRANCE – And “The Donald” said: “Open the floodgates!” And the floodgates opened. Less than 48 hours after Congress approved his debt ceiling suspension, more than $300 billion had flooded in. That is the amount by which the U.S….

NORMANDY, FRANCE – Until last week, Republicans controlled the House… the Senate… and the White House. But who controlled Republicans? As it turned out, many – including the Republican-in-Chief – were out of control. Then came the explosion. Dazed and…

NORMANDY, FRANCE – We had gotten a bid of $4,000 to redo the old fireplace. The carved stones that held the wooden mantel beam had cracked and fallen down. Other stones along the side had broken off or worn down….

POITOU, FRANCE – Senator John McCain spoke for millions on Thursday. “I’m a pretty intelligent guy,” he said, speaking of President Trump’s sudden lurch to the left side of the aisle, “but I don’t understand this.” On the surface, the…

BILL BONNER, CHAIRMAN, BONNER & PARTNERS POITOU, FRANCE – While Hurricane Irma whips up some of the strongest winds ever recorded, the fury of the storm breaking over Washington is intensifying, too. “For Conservatives, Trump’s Deal With Democrats Is Nightmare…

POITOU, FRANCE – On Tuesday, the Dow fell 234 points – or roughly 1%. No big deal. Commentators said investors were worried about disasters – both natural and man-made. Out at sea, another storm gathers force… threatening the sugar islands…

POITOU, FRANCE – It was a slow Labor Day weekend. We spent the time visiting with neighbors and tying up loose ends on our renovation projects. Then, yesterday, a daughter arrived from California. She brought bad tidings from the film…

POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday was Labor Day. Most of the world pays homage to its sweating, busing, trucking classes, its poor huddled masses… yearning for a cushier seat and a better deal… on May 1. President Grover Cleveland chose the…

POITOU, FRANCE – The price of bitcoin has topped $4,800. What this means, we don’t know. “It’s like the tulip mania… just a bubble,” said a friend last night. “Well… yes and no,” we cautioned against a rush to judgment….

 And the Lord said unto Noah, “Come thou and all thy house into the ark; for thee have I seen righteous before me in this generation. “Of every clean beast thou shalt take to thee by sevens, the male and…

POITOU, FRANCE – “We live in a slow-growth world,” summarized a canny friend, “but with high-growth debt and high-growth asset prices.” Today, we turn to a report on Zero Hedge for further precision. But we’ll get to that in a minute. First,…

POITOU, FRANCE – We spent the weekend in our favorite place: the workshop. In the foreground is an old altar; we are preparing it for our tiny chapel. Bill’s workshop at his home in the French countryside The family chapel…

POITOU, FRANCE – “‘The Donald’ has been White House-broken,” was what we were trying to say, translating the phrase into something that may make sense to a French listener. But it was too clever and complicated. “Well, let’s just say…

POITOU, FRANCE – Bannon is gone. And Priebus. And Spicer. And Scaramucci. And Donald J. Trump? Reckless, vain, juvenile, untutored, swinish – he was refreshingly blockheaded. And now, he may be gone, too… tamed by the “adults in the room.”…

POITOU, FRANCE – On Monday, Donald Trump, president of all the Americans, said his country would spend more blood and money trying to force the Afghans to do what it wants them to do, whatever that is. And so… a…

POITOU, FRANCE – George Washington: What an imbecile! He owned 317 slaves. Couldn’t he see that slavery was bad? Jefferson, too. And Madison. And Monroe. Jackson. Van Buren. Tyler. Harrison. Polk. Taylor. Johnson. And Ulysses S. Grant. Didn’t they smell…

POITOU, FRANCE – In professional wrestling, scriptwriters always include what they call a “Holy Sh*t!” moment. That’s when one of the stars takes a hit so brutal or so fantastic that the fans yell: “Holy sh*t!” Donald J. Trump, a…

POITOU, FRANCE – St. Augustine blamed the fall of Rome on the failure of its pagan gods. Historian Edward Gibbon took the opposite view: He thought the empire had been weakened by Augustine’s god. Here at the Diary, we take no…

POITOU, FRANCE – First, let us begin with an echo from last week… “Hey, Dad, bitcoin went over $4,000 yesterday. An all-time high. I made another $20,000. Not bad.” Pride goeth before a fall, of course. Profits go before losses….

POITOU, FRANCE – Our in-house expert left us this morning; we have no update on his cryptocurrency speculations. He and his family boarded the 6:22 train to Paris, en route back to Florida. About a half hour after we had taken…

A cousin, visiting from Maryland, probably spoke for millions of people. The subject was bitcoin. And he was right. It’s not “real” in a traditional sense. You can’t touch it. You can’t see it. You can’t stack it up and…

And it’s time, time, time And it’s time, time, time It’s time, time, time that you love And it’s time, time, time… – Tom Waits POITOU, FRANCE – “So how much did you make last night?” “We made about $15,000,”…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Dad, last week I made another $20,000 off that NEO cryptocurrency I bought. “And last night, I made another $5,000 on my other cryptocurrency investments.” Our in-house crypto expert was either boasting or pulling our leg; we…

And it’s time, time, time And it’s time, time, time It’s time, time, time that you love And it’s time, time, time… – Tom Waits POITOU, FRANCE – “You cut that crooked.” “No, I didn’t. The wall is crooked.” “No,…

POITOU, FRANCE ­– Barely two weeks ago, 2,117 people took Chile’s medical licensing exam. What was noteworthy about this year’s test was that more than one-third of the people taking it were not Chilean. Nearly 800 of them were Venezuelans….

POITOU, FRANCE – This is getting monotonous. Another day, another record high for the Dow… now above the 22,000-point mark for the first time in history. And based on the CAPE ratio – a valuation measure that compares stock prices…

They went up, of course. Just like they always do. Some people have expressed wonder… and doubt… that the equity value of America’s businesses can increase so much even while national leadership is in so much disarray. Republicans can’t work…

POITOU, FRANCE – This weekend, we celebrated the oldest win-win deal in human life: marriage. On Saturday afternoon, we drove 10 miles or so to Le Dorat. The medieval town sits on a hill in the green Limousin countryside, with…

POITOU, FRANCE The Senate failed again to pass even a “skinny” repeal of Obamacare (which left most of the program in place… and most people subject to its quack finance) after three senators defected. The new White House communications director,…

POITOU, FRANCE – This just in from the Bonner & Partners research department… A further update on the Doom Index: Building permits – a leading housing-market indicator – for the second quarter were down about 3%. That adds another Doom Point…

POITOU, FRANCE – The Dow rose another 100 points on Tuesday. Can anything stop this bull market? At least we know the answer to that question: Yes. When? Longtime Diary sufferers know better than to trust our market timing advice. So rather…

LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND – One of the most remarkable conversations on finance we’ve ever had happened here in Lausanne yesterday. “You mean it costs as much to put money on deposit at a bank as it does to borrow it?” We…

LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND – The Trump team welcomed its newest member over the weekend. Henceforth, communications will be controlled by Goldman Sachs alum Anthony Scaramucci, aka “The Mooch.” This brings to five the number of Deep Staters from Goldman Sachs dominating…

POITOU, FRANCE – A young man drove up yesterday. Shaved head. Earring. Nice car. Sad look. “Monsieur Bonner?” After the introductions, he got down to business. “Damien [our gardener] told me you were looking for chickens. I’ve got about 10…

POITOU, FRANCE – “My father told me to plant trees,” said a neighbor last night. “It was right after I bought this place. Of course, I was young… I was busy… I didn’t have time to plant trees. “Now, I…

POITOU, FRANCE – Sound the alarm. Take your money off the table. Pack your socks and your passport. There’s going to be trouble. The Washington Post reports: “Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s treasury secretary, is hurtling toward his first fiasco.” Republicans have majorities in…

POITOU, FRANCE – President Trump implies that America isn’t so great anymore. He was in Paris last week and dined with French President Emmanuel Macron in the Eiffel Tower. Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, is fresh from an overseas…

POITOU, FRANCE – Public figures and public events are almost always fraudulent in some way. France’s Bastille Day is no exception. It is hailed as a landmark of liberty. But the storming of the Bastille prison by revolutionaries, on this…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Which is worse? America or France?” The question must be put in context. We were invited to dinner with local farmers last night. Jean-Yves and Arlette live in a modest house in the nearby town – an…

POITOU, FRANCE – Poor David Brooks… This morning, while waiting for one dose of claptrap, we were whacked by another. Fed chief Janet Yellen was scheduled to speak before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill at 10 a.m….

POITOU, FRANCE – This morning, we are wondering: How dumb is the Fed? The question was prompted by this comment by former Fed insider Chris Whalen at The Institutional Risk Analyst blog: [O]ur message to the folks in Jackson Hole this week…

POITOU, FRANCE – What does our Doom Index  tell us now? Here’s a quick update from Joe Withrow in the Bonner & Partners research department: We are still waiting for second-quarter data to come in before we can update the index…

POITOU, FRANCE – “Nothing really changes.” Sitting next to us at breakfast, a companion was reading an article written by the No. 2 man in France, Édouard Philippe, in Le Monde. The headline promised to tell us how the country was…

POITOU, FRANCE – “You can’t take that car into Paris.” Our gardener is our source of local news and universal wisdom. “You don’t have a green sticker,” he explained. The French are always finding ways to make life expensive, difficult,…

Oliver Stone: Donald Trump won. This is your fourth president, am I right? Mr. Clinton, Mr. Bush, Mr. Obama, and now your fourth one. Vladimir Putin: Yes, that’s true. Stone: What changes? Putin: Well, almost nothing… everywhere, especially in the United States, the bureaucracy…

Editor’s Note: Bill is off today for the Fourth of July holiday. So today, we’re sharing an essay from Bill that explores the founding principles of America and considers if Americans have lived up to those ideals. Recently, I saw this…

PARIS – Global warming has yet to get a firm grip on Europe. This week, the weather in Ireland turned in the direction you might expect. It is midsummer, but in Baltimore, it could pass for a bad day in…

“Even God Himself could not sink this ship.” – Titanic crewman… The ship sank four days later “It is our will that this state shall endure for a thousand years.” – Adolf Hitler… 10 years before the Reich was destroyed…

DUBLIN – Is Donald J. Trump a Neanderthal? Yes, of course. We all are. One of the most interesting stories we’re following is some 300,000 years old. It is the story of our species. What does this have to do…

DUBLIN – Gold dropped sharply on Monday. The yellow metal fell about 1% to as low as $1,236. A “fat finger” was blamed, meaning it was probably a mistake. According to reports, a single trader sold 1.85 million ounces of…

DUBLIN – Today, a simple proposal for making America great again… But first an update on our recent trip to Ireland. When we left you on Friday, we were visiting our headquarters in the town of Portlaw in County Waterford, Ireland,…

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Last night, we drove over to the harbor town of Dungarvan for dinner. The Irish countryside was idyllic – with rolling hills, forests, and hayfields. Then, arriving at Dungarvan, we saw the Atlantic shining in the distance….

And perhaps you’re alive And perhaps you’re dead Hoo ha ha Hoo ha ha HOO HOO HOO KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK – “Fragment of an Agon,” T.S. Eliot PORTLAW, IRELAND – We’ve always wanted to quote…

DUBLIN – Oil fell below $43 on Tuesday. Brick-and-mortar retailers are being emptied. The auto industry – including $1.2 trillion in auto debt – is stalling. Meanwhile, restaurants are having trouble filling their tables. Consumers aren’t buying, perhaps because their…

DUBLIN – Poor David Bonderman. He said the wrong thing. He should be ashamed of himself. We’ll come back to him in a minute… Stroll Through the Park In the meantime, if you want to enjoy summertime as it should…

LONDON – “Nothing but bad news in the paper,” a colleague saves us the trouble of reading it ourselves. “A building caught fire here in London. Dozens dead. A guy opened fire on Republicans at a baseball field. He shot…

LONDON – Illinois is in trouble. It has $14.6 billion in unpaid bills… not including a pension liability of $130 billion. The state is running a $6 billion deficit, and its government is dysfunctional, operating without a budget for two…

LONDON – It was warm and sunny when we landed in London yesterday. Britain sometimes gets only a few weeks of summer. People rush out into the streets to celebrate, knowing that the very same rose that blooms today may…

BALTIMORE – We live in an age of miracles. With some paradox and claptrap thrown in for good measure. Over the last four years, almost all the stock market gains in the U.S. came from just five technology stocks –…

BALTIMORE – We’re trying to avoid distractions. What is really going on, we wonder? What is really important, we ask? Donald J. Trump came to Washington, D.C., promising to “drain the swamp.” Instead, the swamp is draining him. The media…

BALTIMORE – The public spectacle in Washington took center stage on Thursday. It is a much-hyped battle between two mountebanks, each backed by armies of scoundrels and scammers. But it is best understood as a political version of professional wraslin’….

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Yesterday, we connected a couple of dots… “Think tanks” think about what they’re paid to think about. Who pays them? The people who have the resources to bend public policies in their direction. Who are those people?…

WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – We’re back at our post – watching… reading… trying to connect the dots. And we begin by asking: What do “think tanks” think about? The answer in a minute… “Russiagate” First, there is a dustup in…

Editor’s Note: Bill is spending time with family today. We expect him back tomorrow. Below, we share an essay from Thanksgiving 2015 where Bill recounts a special conversation with his mother. BALTIMORE – Markets have been calm over the Thanksgiving…

Editor’s Note: Bill is away with family and unable to pen his daily Diary. Below, we share an essay originally published in August of last year. In the French countryside, Bill tells his then-14-month-old grandson a bedtime story. But the…

Editor’s Note: As Bill mentioned yesterday, he is currently with family and unable to pen his daily Diary. Today, we share a classic essay that explores a timeless subject: What makes America unique? Below, Bill shines a light on the idea of America…

A personal note. Many thanks to those who agreed to try our wine. We ran out quickly. Apologies to those who were unable to get any. Next year, we will have fewer bottles; a frost wiped out half our crop….

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Now comes a report from the Financial Times that tells us the nation’s No. 1 industry – homebuilding – has been backing up for a quarter of a century. According to the newspaper, U.S. homebuilders “started work on the…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – You already know about our ranch here in Argentina. No, it is not very productive or practical. It is too far, too high, and too dry. It is marginal in almost every way. The cows are too…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We’re taking the doctor’s orders; 9,000 feet above sea level just doesn’t seem to work for us. So we moved down to the tiny casita we built near the vineyard, 1,000 feet lower. We spend the night there and…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “What business school did you go to?” We were joking, of course. But the two young men needed an alternative point of view. In the course of getting their MBAs in Chicago, they had picked up some…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Have you ever wondered what you would do if you had a health emergency in a remote location? We never thought about it… until last week. Then we found out. Place at the End Up at the…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We rode out to one of the high valleys on Sunday. Leading the way were the ranch foreman, Gustavo, and his son, Agostín. Agostín is 10 years old. But he is already a gaucho – sure of…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – On Wednesday, stocks fell. And volatility shot up. Reports Bloomberg: The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 370 points, Treasuries rallied the most since July and volatility spiked higher as the turmoil surrounding the Trump administration…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow was flat on Tuesday. Investors must have been distracted by the latest tempest in the Washington teapot. Did President Trump say something he shouldn’t have? He told the Russians that terrorists were trying to make…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Two very different things happened over the weekend. They are connected in a telling way. First, hackers hit some 200,000 computers in 150 countries with “ransomware.” Second, we received a summons to appear before a mandatory “mediation”…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “The U.S. Economy Is Back on Track,” read a Bloomberg headline over the weekend. Apparently, inflation and consumer spending picked up last month. We are so glad to hear it. And last week, New York Fed President…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Pssst… Dear reader… Want to make some big money, fast? We’re not gamblers. We’re not speculators. And we’re no good at predicting the future. But we see what looks like an RSP, a Really Simple Pattern, that…

SALTA, ARGENTINA – Public life is always a hoot… People of sound mind and reasonable judgment in their personal lives take on characters full of unwarranted confidence and intolerant insistence in public. The couple whose son has a “drug problem”…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – As longtime Diary sufferers know, we don’t do real stock analysis. We just look for Really Simple Patterns (RSPs). The simplest we’ve discovered so far: If a market is cheap now, it will probably be less cheap before you…

Unless you’re playing the game of “greater fool” – buying in the hope that someone out there is willing to pay a higher price – the only reason to buy a stock is for its earnings. As a shareholder, you…

CACHI, ARGENTINA – Here at the Diary we have fun ridiculing the pretensions, absurdities, and hypocrisies of the ruling classes. But there is a serious side to it, too. Mockery makes us laugh. And laughing helps us wiggle free from the kudzu…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Today, an update on our Doom Index… But first, a brief note on life at the ranch… Yesterday, we did our second cattle roundup; the government requires two vaccinations 21 days apart. So, the gauchos saddled up before dawn…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Poor DJT. It doesn’t seem to matter what he says; the press is all over him. A presidential tweet: “Our country needs a good ‘shutdown.’” The commentators couldn’t believe it. It was “unthinkable,” they said, for a…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Today, we leave the world of overpriced stocks and claptrap politics behind. Instead, we will just tell you what happened over the weekend here at the ranch. Monday was May Day in Argentina, as it was in…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – This week, we got a visit from an Austrian man who recently retired and is spending five years traveling the world. He has a specially outfitted four-wheel-drive Toyota with such marvels as heated water for a shower,…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Team Trump came forward yesterday and laid what it claimed was the “biggest tax cut in history” on the table. Before we go on, we should say “We love this guy.” If you’ve been reading the Diary for a…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Watch out, Bill. The originarios almost killed someone up the valley,” our lawyer warned us. “He’s still in a coma.” The latest news isn’t very encouraging. The originario problem was supposed to have calmed down. Ranch Invasion Last year, they invaded…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Once again, the big man steps up to the plate. Once again, he points his bat at the far bleachers. This is going to be “bigger, I believe, than any tax cut in history.” And once again,…

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Remember that property we bought in Virginia? The agent had asked that we send a down payment and promised to send wiring details. But when the details arrived, there was something fishy about them. “Why would a real…