How about some more insight from the “war games” on Brexit? The forum was sponsored by Open Europe. You can read more about it here. Though the participants weren’t there in any official capacity, they were asked to try and represent the known positions of their governments (or the institutions that will be involved in next month’s negotiations in Brussels).
The Irish representative reminded us that for some European countries, being part of the EU is seen as trading up. You get more security and better governance than you might get at the national level. Former party leader Jon Bruton said, “Small countries like Ireland see the EU as community of law and mutual solidarity… Removing the commitment to ever closer union would be like removing EU’s emotional cement”.
This is also a reminder that, for some people, the EU project is about much more than a common market. It’s about “mutual solidarity” (whatever that means) and a common body of law and regulation by which all of Europe is to be governed.
A sense of betrayal
Then there was the sense of betrayal, or a relationship gone wrong. “You were our best friend, and we had a marriage. Now we are divorced”. That’s how former Swedish Trade Minister Ewa Björling put it. It’s a reminder that for some in the EU, Britain is an ally. Its withdrawal will leave them more exposed to the Franco-Prussian axis of “ever closer union”.
The Spanish player pointed out that survival of the EU itself is at stake: “A tsunami would be a very small thing compared to what would happen with a Brexit”. Tsunamis can be large or small. The big ones are devastating. There’s a bit of hyperbole here. But is it directed at the British public—fearing all that could be lost—or the EU, fearing the whole project could be lost?
Karel de Gucht played the role of EU Trade Commissioner. He allayed some fears that the UK would be frozen out of the EU after a Brexit. He said getting a post-Brexit trade deal in place with the UK would be a “top political priority for the UK”. They might not like it. But they know it’s too important to be petty or vengeful.
The centre of the world
The Italian representative, Enrico Letta, reminded everyone that while the EU gazes longingly at its own navel, the rest of the world moves on. “We are discussing as though the European Union is the centre of the world”, he said. “That is no longer the case. In case of Brexit, we risk having years and years of discussions and wasting energy, time and money when the rest of the world will run without us… We have to look at the big picture – the rest of the world is not waiting for us.”
Finally, representing Britain, Lord Lamont (who was the Chancellor of the Exchequer when Britain was forced to leave the ERM in 1992) pointed out that though other countries were eager to relocate the financial centre of the EU from London, you need infrastructure, a skilled labour force, and lots of supporting services to make it happen. It’s not like changing a tyre.
Lord Lamont also pointed out that negotiating a separate deal between the UK and the EU is neither impossible nor unprecedented. He pointed to the EU’s trade deal with Canada. And he pitched the idea that if cross-border services were included, Brexit would not be disruptive to EU capital markets.
It was a fascinating exercise. Not that anyone cares. The real deals will probably be made behind closed doors. And then sold to the public (rammed down their throats). Same as it ever was.
Category: Brexit