Why is the American military-industrial complex so dead-set against Britain leaving the European Union? A paper published this week by Carnegie Europe (an offshoot of the US-based Carnegie Foundation) wasn’t very subtle in its analysis. It reckons a British exit from the EU would make Britain “less geopolitically relevant”. The study claims:
“In the worst-case Brexit scenario, the UK would probably remain a significant military power (depending on the economic fallout), but it would certainly become a much-diminished diplomatic player. Concomitantly, Brexit would greatly damage the EU’s already-struggling defence policy and, by extension, its foreign policies.
“Worse, Brexit could also further harm the credibility of the whole EU project, coming on top of coping with Eurozone woes, the refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, the rise of nationalist politicians, a revisionist Russia, and Middle Eastern disorder. A more unstable EU is not in Britain’s strategic interest. As the [British] defence review says, “a secure and prosperous Europe is essential for a secure and prosperous UK”.
“The British are widely admired for their irony. But it would be painfully ironic for Britain to make itself less geopolitically relevant at the very moment it wants to become more strategically ambitious.”
An independent Britain might change the status quo
So the American defence establishment is pushing the line that Britain out of the EU is worse off than Britain in the EU. Either they really believe that, or it’s easier to deal with the EU as a whole, strategically, and Britain as a Nato member, than to figure out how an independent Britain might change things. It’s also possible that the Americans want Britain in the EU because it’s easier for them, not because it’s better for Britain.
National strategy aside, you should note that when geopolitics drives markets, defence stocks do pretty well.
Category: Brexit