The Beijing-Berlin axis of power

Something at little bit odd happened here in the office yesterday.

It was just before lunch – about ten past twelve. I looked up from my desk to see a little huddle of people gathered around one corner of the office. They were all watching the same thing on TV.

I thought perhaps there’d been some breaking news story I’d missed, something important enough to drag a dozen people away from their desks.

It turned out it was Jeremy Corbyn. If you missed it, it was the new Labour leader’s first Prime Minister’s Questions.

I didn’t hang around to see what he said. I went for a walk in the rain instead.

Corbyn, of course, wants to renationalise the railways

Maybe next week we’ll be treated to him fighting Richard Branson for control of the west coast mainline. Perhaps an arm wrestle in Parliament Square. Or mud wrestling.

There’s no doubting that the railways are vital to the economy, although almost certainly not in the way Corbyn would like them to be. On a global level, railways, roads, sea lanes – they’re all vital economic trade routes that govern the strategy of the world’s most powerful nations.

This week I’ve been reading about just how important they are in Jakub J Grygiel’s Great Powers and Geopolitical Change. It’s a pretty in-depth study of the ‘grand strategies’ of some of the world’s most powerful nations of the past thousand years.

Amongst other things, it covers the rise and fall of the Venetian Republic and Ottoman Empire, as well as explaining how places such as Britain, Spain and Portugal managed to punch above their weight and become ‘first rate’ powers.

The thing I found most interesting is the way world power is almost entirely dictated by the emergence of key trade routes.

Beijing Berlin Axis

It’s a complex topic, so I’ll give you the condensed version. Imagine a road running from the heart of Beijing on the east coast of China, all the way across the Eurasian land mass, through Constantinople, across the Balkans, past Venice and up into modern day Germany. For the sake of ease, we’ll call this the ‘Beijing Berlin Axis’.

Roughly speaking, this route governed the balance of power in the world for thousands of years. It linked east and west. And the nations that controlled it – or key parts of it – were more often than not the world’s first rate powers.

The Venetians and Ottomans both controlled and shaped this route for hundreds of years. They became extravagantly wealthy and powerful in the process. Places like Britain were far away from the axis of power. We were frozen out. Unimportant.

That all changed the late 15^th century

Atlantic states such as England, Spain and Portugal developed boats that could travel long distances in relatively short periods of time. Explorers such as Columbus and Vasco da Gama discovered new trade routes – sea lanes – to America, India, Southeast Asia and China.

These new routes fundamentally changed the balance of power of the world. The overland ‘Beijing Berlin Axis’ was no longer the quickest or easiest route from east to west. It was quicker to travel by sea.

The geopolitical reality shifted. The centre of world power moved towards the Atlantic. British national strategy took full advantage.

It wasn’t long before Britain had become the world’s biggest, richest and most powerful Empire. That’s the importance of geopolitics and strategic planning.

Enough history. There’s a good reason this matters today, in 21^st century Britain.

Because, for the first time in 500 years, the overland route between east and west is increasing in importance again. You may have heard of it. It’s a Chinese infrastructure project called the ‘New Silk Road’.

It connects China’s huge industrial capacity, skirts the resource and energy rich regions in Russia, and strikes right into the heart of Western Europe. And it puts that vital route into Chinese hands.

This is happening now

It’s not some plan for the future. As Nick Giambruno, as Casey Research’s International Man, wrote a few weeks ago:

“The plan is still in the early stages, but important pieces are already falling into place. On November 18 of last year, a train carrying containerized goods left Yiwu, China. It arrived in Madrid, Spain, 21 days later. It was the first shipment across Eurasia on the Yiwu-Madrid route, which is now the longest train route in the world. It’s one of the first components of the New Silk Road.”

This is perhaps the most important geopolitical development the world has seen for half a millennium. It will reshape the balance of power in Europe and the East. It is a reality every nation needs to plan for.

Meanwhile in Britain, we’re debating whether to nationalise the Blackfriars to Bedford line.

Hmmm.

We’ll come back to this. It’s an important theme and one we all need to understand. It cuts to the core of what Britain’s national interests are, what our strategy is as a nation and what our place in the world is.

In the meantime, I’d like to hear your views on this. What do you think our strategy should be to protect our national interests?

In fact, what are our national interests?

Category: Geopolitics